Originally Posted by
agharah1
Most people cannot approach things with an investor's mind. One thing I'm always hearing traders say is to "cut your losses short but let your profits run." That's extremely counter-intuitive. Most people will close their winning trades quickly to lock in a profit, but they'll let their losing trades go forever hoping the market comes back.
Its the same in sports betting. People will go from sport to sport thinking "this is the one!" And then they lose because they didn't understand it nearly as much as they thought they did. Last year the Ravens lost to the Titans, Seahawks, and Jaguars. The Packers only regular season loss was to the Chiefs. In the NBA players give inconsistent effort (Shaq's "mid-season vacations" come to mind.) I saw the Cavs beat the Celtics last year when the Celtics were like -2000 favs. In hockey, a bad team could have their goalie catch fire. In baseball, even the best players of all time couldn't get a hit more than 35% of the time. In Soccer, bad teams will stack the box and play for the tie.
People think the NFL is easy to cap but its also the sport the books make the most money on by far. Personally I like college football, but even that's not a guarantee. Last year UAB was atrocious and somehow they beat a Central Florida team that was a 14pt fav. Every year you hear of at least 1 "Upset Saturday" and god help the poor soul who bet their 401k on Michigan ML vs. App. St. in '07 (I still can't believe 5Dimes has I-A vs. I-AA moneylines). If crazy stuff didn't happen, what would SportsCenter put in their Top 10 and drunken college kids wouldn't be tearing up goalposts.
Men's and Women's college basketball is nice because there are so many games and there's usually a severe talent disparity. But I once blew my account on Syracuse -750 at home vs. Seton Hall. The Hall was the worst 3pt shooting team in the Big East and suddenly they come alive, torch the Cuse zone on the road no less, and win like 90-72.
The key is to look for value. If you know a team has a shot to win at +EV then take it. If you think laying -170 on Drew Smyly of the Tigers on a night where Jim Leyland stupidly puts both Ramon Santiago and Ryan Rayburn (two sub-.200 hitters) in the lineup, don't take it, even against a terrible team.