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Early napkin math leans for tomorrow's 2 games:
Minnesota has value even at -18, I can see them blowing the doors off of Tulsa like they did in the 4th quarter yesterday to them but for the whole game.
I really like the Sparks against Indiana also, even on the road. Not just at +3.5 but the ML as well
Write ups coming tomorrow
Today's writeup for 2 games
Tulsa @ Minnesota - 12:05pm
Spread: MIN -18
Total: 168
ML: +1700 and -3000
Log5 Estimated Win Probability: TUL - 6%, MIN - 94%
Calculated Money Line - TUL: +1704, MIN: -2104 (Value: None)
Calculated Spread: MIN -24 (Value: MIN +6)
Expected Tempo: 82 possessions per team (League Average: 80)
Expected Offensive Efficiencies: TUL - 93.45 , MIN: 126.78
Projected Score: MIN 105 TUL 76
Projected Total: 181 (+13 from posted total)
Analysis: Lots of questions surrounding this game. These two teams met up in Tulsa just 2 days ago and played a close game until the 4th quarter when Minnesota blew the doors off and won by 21. Minnesota shot 77% from the 2nd quarter on and were led by Candace Wiggins who could not miss from 3. You have to wonder if Minnesota will play like they did in the 4th quarter that day, in all 4 quarters at home today. 18 points to cover is asking a lot but if any team can do it its Minnesota against the worst defensive team in the WNBA. But can they shoot 77% again and have Candace Wiggins on fire from 3? Missing its leading rebounder, Brunson? I think they will be able to do it enough and send their fans home happy before the Olympic Break.
Plays: MIN -18 and OVER 168
Los Angeles @ Indiana - 6:00pm
Spread: IND -4
Total: 163.5
ML: +160 and -180
Log5 Estimated Win Probability: LA - 45%, IND - 55%
Calculated Money Line - LA: +114, IND: -134 (Value: LA +44)
Calculated Spread: IND -1.5 (Value: LA +2.5)
Expected Tempo: 81.36 possessions per team (League Average: 80)
Expected Offensive Efficiencies: LA - 108.02, IND: 100.27
Projected Score: LA 86 IND 85
Projected Total: 171 (+7.5 from posted total)
Analysis: I expect this to be a back and forth affair that could perhaps go into overtime. Whichever team can dictate the pace of the game will win. Indiana is a bit slower, LA wants to push it a bit. LA is more than capable of winning, but Indiana will have the home edge. All the value is on LA and the ML, and the over could be a play if it stays close throughout the entire game. The total can really go either way. Stay away from it. Take LA and the points, and make a small play on the LA money line.
Plays: LA +4 and LA +160
Today's sheet
both you and roxxy like the sparks but indiana might be the right side according to the market.
Just looked at Roxxy's thread... me and him have the exact same plays today expect his over is MIN 93 and mine is the game total.Originally Posted by Ghenghis Kahn
A putrid 2nd half by the Lynx ruined both bets in that game
Sorry guys
Gonna need Sparks tonight to win/cover for a profitable day
Cash LA +4 and LA ML
Washington @ New York - 10:00am
Spread: NY -7.5
Total: 145
ML: +290 and -350
Log5 Estimated Win Probability: WAS - 34%, NY - 66%
Calculated Money Line - WAS: +193, NY: -350 (Value: WAS)
Calculated Spread: NY -4.7 (Value: WAS +3)
Expected Tempo: 74.77 possessions per team (League Average: 80)
Expected Offensive Efficiencies: WAS - 90.30 , NY: 104.10
Projected Score: WAS 71 NY 73
Projected Total: 144 (-1 from posted total)
Analysis: Washington is a better road team than away team. They played strong vs. Connecticut on Wednesday. I actually like the +7.5 they are given, and I am also going to make a small play on the Washington Money Line.
Plays: WAS +7.5, WAS ML
Last edited by frogsrangers; 07-13-12 at 09:56 AM.
Atlanta @ San Antonio - 7:05pm
Spread: SA -8
Total: 152
ML: +330 and -400
Log5 Estimated Win Probability: ATL 16% , SA 84$
Calculated Money Line - ATL: +440, SA: -510 (Value: None)
Calculated Spread: SA -13 (Value: SA +5)
Expected Tempo: 81.90 possessions per team (League Average: 80)
Expected Offensive Efficiencies: ATL - 90.46, SA - 93.91
Projected Score: ATL 67 SA 84
Projected Total: 151 (-1 from posted total)
Analysis: Atlanta shocked us all, going into Seattle without their best player and not only covering, but winning. But San Antonio is a much better team, playing better ball than any other team in the WNBA right now. Play San Antonio -8, and the under. Atlanta is still the best statistical defensive team in the league.
Plays: SA -8, SA/ATL Under 152
Connecticut @ Chicago - 7:35pm
Spread: CON -4.5
Total: 149.5
ML: -200 and +175
Log5 Estimated Win Probability: CON 60% , CHI 40%
Calculated Money Line - CON: -170, CHI: +150 (Value: None)
Calculated Spread: CON -4.5 (Value: None)
Expected Tempo: 81.39 possessions per team (League Average: 80)
Expected Offensive Efficiencies: CON - 106.41, CHI - 94.37
Projected Score: CON 84 CHI 72
Projected Total: 156 (+6.5 from posted total)
Analysis: Connecticut beat Washington twice this week in unimpressive fashion. In fact, they haven't really been all that impressive lately apart from their win at Minnesota. They go and face a better team than Washington at Chicago. But if any team needs the break, its Chicago, still reeling from missing Epiphany Prince. This game could really go either way. I am seeing no real lean or play here.
Plays: None
Seattle @ Phoenix - 9:05pm
Spread: SEA -6.5
Total: 148
ML: -300 and +250
Log5 Estimated Win Probability: SEA 60% , PHO 40%
Calculated Money Line - SEA: -165, PHO: +145 (Value: PHO)
Calculated Spread: SEA -3 (Value: PHO +3.5)
Expected Tempo: 79.64 possessions per team (League Average: 80)
Expected Offensive Efficiencies: SEA - 94.98, PHO: 91.08
Projected Score: SEA 80 PHO 70
Projected Total: 150 (+2 from posted total)
Analysis: The ultimate contrast in styles, the slowest WNBA team, Seattle, meets the fastest, Phoenix. Seattle laid a giant egg at home against Atlanta on Wednesday, while Phoenix has been playing really bad basketball lately. Seattle recently blew the doors of Phoenix at home in the first meeting of the year. Phoenix just doesn't have the offensive weapons right now. The total has gone OVER 148 in each of the Mercury's home games this year, but they haven't faced a team as slow as Seattle at home. Even in Seattle it went over 148. Its hard to go against trends. I like the over here, but leave the side bet alone.
Plays: SEA/PHO O 148
So far so good frogs keep it up
Cash: WAS +7.5 and WAS ML
BOL on the rest of your plays. It's a shame wnba is taking a month off.
I know. I have been doing well and its shame this money maker is going away, and the only thing going is MLB which is completely a coin flip
An even bigger shame are my totals tonight. Atlanta gives up and stops playing defense allowing the total to easily go over,
And in Phoenix, total looked like an easy over after the first quarter and the game was being played at a fast pace but then the Mercury score 6 FREAKING POINTS in the 3rd quarter to pretty much ruin it and cause the Mercury total to go under 148 at home for the first time this season BY ONE POINT
I trust my numbers on totals, its just that the past 3 games I have played the total the numbers overwhelmingly point to a result yet the opposite happens.
That's variance I guess...
Final 1st half sheet, see you all next month!
Phoenix, by the second half, were on tired legs. They basically had no bench support. And that feisty rookie with the long dark hair had a scary injury in the first half.
Atlanta's lack of defense can be written off as variance. Some nights, even the women will mail it in.
I will note that, for the most part, women in the wnba tend to be much more predictable than their male counter parts.
I find this ironic because, in life, women tend to be less predictable (at least from my perspective).
This theory saved my ass tonight. I took a bad beat on the Angels game and had to resort to a bail out play of Seattle -6.5. I suspected they wanted to make amends for the embarrassing performance against Atlanta a few days ago. Once they pulled away in the 3rd, they really didn't ease off the throttle. It was as if they wanted to "wash" away the Atlanta game with a double-digit win. I can actually see men in the nba mailing it in, letting the other team gain some momentum, and then barely squeaking out a 5 pt win.
There's more pride on the line with these gals, IMO. Look how Tulsa wore their heart on their sleeves in their loss to Conn. And look how Wash not only covered but actually won straight up.
Last edited by EVPlus; 07-13-12 at 11:23 PM. Reason: add more info
I think WNBA girls have more to play for when it comes to pride since its not really about the money or fame
It just sucks because the past 3 games I have been on the wrong side of the statistical variance.
Whether it be Minnesota turning the ball over 11 times in the 3rd quarter yesterday to destroy the over, or Phoenix only scoring 6 in the 3rd quarter today to destroy the over.
Looking forward to the 2nd half of the season to rebound from it
Still can't complain with 16-10 though
^^^ +6 units or so is great, especially since your model is still evolving.
Checking out for the night but just had a thought. If we go on the premise that women in wnba are more predictable in terms of playing for pride, maybe ATS results will be more consistent. In other words, even though the total may be lower or higher than expected, the team that is expected to cover by a certain number of pts will still do so with a higher rate of predictability.
Updated Efficiencies for tomorrow and write ups to follow
Team Pyth Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Adjusted Defensive Efficiency AdjustedTempo W L Minnesota .7860 106.59 93.89 81.25 15 4 San Antonio .7530 108.10 96.96 79.00 13 5 Los Angeles .6623 102.39 95.88 82.31 15 6 Connecticut .6404 102.41 96.80 82.32 15 4 Indiana .5876 102.71 99.22 78.79 10 7 Atlanta .5484 95.30 93.51 82.54 9 10 Seattle .5097 95.67 95.31 75.06 9 10 Chicago .4433 94.97 97.11 80.20 8 9 Washington .3353 93.06 99.49 75.80 4 14 Tulsa .2836 96.17 105.27 82.25 3 15 New York .2232 89.19 100.73 79.60 6 12 Phoenix .1903 90.80 104.58 84.65 4 15
Washington @ Indiana - 7:00pm
Spread: IND -11.5
Total: 148
ML: +650 and -850
Log5 Estimated Win Probability: WAS 17%, IND 83%
Calculated Money Line - WAS: +480, IND: -540
Calculated Spread: IND -11.5
Expected Tempo: 74.20 possessions per team (League Average: 80)
Expected Offensive Efficiencies: WAS 88.71, IND 107.75
Projected Score: WAS 68 IND 81
Projected Total: 149 (+1 from posted total)
Analysis: With an olympic break breaking up the rhythm and tempo of both teams, I think each game will feature rust. It's a shame because both teams ended the half on a high note. But expect a slow paced and sloppy game as both teams are going to be trying to get back into the swing of things. I expect the tempo to be slow and this to be a grind it out game, with the total going under.
Plays: Under 148
Connecticut @ New York - 7:00pm
Spread: CON -4.5
Total: 153
ML: -190 and +165
Log5 Estimated Win Probability: CON 78%, NY 22%
Calculated Money Line - CON -390, NY +340
Calculated Spread: CON -9.5
Expected Tempo: 81.54 possessions per team (League Average: 80)
Expected Offensive Efficiencies: CON - 108.78, NY - 88.81
Projected Score: CON 88 NY 69
Projected Total: 157 (+4 from posted total)
Analysis: This is a weird game to predict. While the Sun had 2 players on the olympic team, the Liberty had nothing. So what does that mean? Does it mean that the Sun's stars will be tired out, or will they be more polished? Does that mean the Liberty were able to practice as a whole team the past month while the Sun couldn't? Does that mean that the Liberty are focused on the WNBA, while the Sun's stars are still in olympic land? Who knows. My model shows this should be a Sun blowout, but I have hesitation because this is the first game back from the break and anything can happen. While the Sun blew out the Liberty in 2 games at home already this year, the Liberty played the Sun close and only lost by 5 at the Garden to open the season. The circumstances point to a game like what we saw at the Garden, so the Sun should win, but by single digits, and the money line is kind of low. So play the Sun Money line and if you are daring, the Sun spread. But if it creeps up any higher than -5.5, avoid it.
Plays: CON -190, CON -4.5
Phoenix @ Seattle - 10:00pm
Spread: SEA -8
Total: 149.5
ML: +390 and -475
Log5 Estimated Win Probability: Phoenix 11%, Seattle 89%
Calculated Money Line - PHO +800, SEA -900
Calculated Spread: SEA -15.5
Expected Tempo: 79.32 possessions per team (League Average: 80)
Expected Offensive Efficiencies: PHO 80.31, SEA - 110.97
Projected Score: PHO 66 SEA 84
Projected Total: 150 (+0.5 from posted total)
Analysis: These teams played interesting games in the first half, including to close the first half when an obvious OVER went under by 1 point due to a 6 point Mercury quarter. What can we expect to tip off the 2nd half? Well, for starters, these numbers in the model are skewed since they don't include Diana Taurasi and Lauren Jackson. I think both will be huge boosts to their team. But I like Jackson more than Taurasi here, and even more so at home. My model projects a blowout, and I though the line is moving fast away from Seattle, grab Seattle -8 while you can. Avoid the total as the return of two stars for both teams will be cancelled out by the break. If there was no break, the OVER would be an easy play.
Plays: SEA -8
Great info, thanks man! Tryed to send you points but it wouldnt let me.
Taurasi is definitely out...
It may be only seven days, but it's seven days in the WNBA.
Valley product Dymond Simon treated it as such when she got the call from Mercury President and Chief Operations Officer Amber Cox offering her a short-term contract with the team.
"It's an amazing opportunity, no matter what," Simon said.
"I'm so blessed to be able to come back here."
Simon got her chance as a result of Candice Dupree's and Charde Houston's injuries. That led to roster exemptions -- and Simon's midseason debut.
Coach Corey Gaines hopes the guard will offer breathers to other players, starting with Thursday night's game against the Seattle Storm.
"She'll be able to give (Samantha Prahalis) some spare minutes, give her some rest," he said. "She came to training camp, so she knows what we're doing."
Simon knows what she's doing, too.
The Valley native first showed off her skills at Phoenix St. Mary's, where she was a two-time state Player of the Year and champion.
She fought knee injuries while playing for Arizona State University, where she graduated from in 2011.
But she played one game in Australia and a full season in Croatia for professional teams before returning to the Mercury's 2012 training camp.
An injury there led to her being waived from the regular roster.
Now healthy and getting a second opportunity to show what she can do, Simon said she's trying not to put too much pressure on herself going in to Thursday night's game.
"I know the system," she said. "I know what (Gaines) wants. He wants a guard who pushes the ball, who's aggressive.
"I have all those aspects to my game, so it's just finding that balance, not getting ahead of myself and doing what I know how to do."
Thursday night's game is exciting because it's her first, but Simon said she's really looking forward to Sunday's home game against San Antonio, since her father will be in the crowd.
"My dad, he's my biggest fan," she said. "He's been raising me to play basketball since I was about 4 years old. He'll probably get some season tickets or something like that, but just knowing he's in the crowd, supporting me, it's a great feeling."
Taurasi out
Diana Taurasi did not practice with the team Wednesday, and she will not play Thursday night, as she is still recovering from the Olympics, Gaines said.
"She's been flying all over the place, so it's kind of tough," he said. "I know she's tired. We'll get that all settled later on."
Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/sports/merc...#ixzz23hNJk9sk
Looks like Lauren Jackson is out too
So this game will pretty much be like the game they had right before the break
I expect a Storm double digit win
Nothing changes regarding the play
Lost on the Sun picks, they were dominated from the 2nd quarter on today. Didn't show up, will be interesting if they show up for the return trip to Connecticut on Saturday
107 points in the Fever game after 3 quarters, as long as they have a 40 point quarter or less it wins. Had a 51 point 1st quarter, but Indiana slowed down the pace after that and have combined for only 56 points in the previous 2 quarters.
Been dealing with car trouble all day, no time for write ups or anything detailed but I will try to make it quick
Lousy 1-3 day yesterday, not a good start to the 2nd half
Today's picks are San Antonio -8, Atlanta Dream +3, Minnesota -15, and San Antonio/Tulsa Over 164
Projected Scores/Totals and Calculated Spreads:
San Antonio 100, Tulsa 77 (San Antonio -12)
Atlanta 76, Chicago 73 (Atlanta -1.5)
Minnesota 89, Washington 64 (Minnesota -20.5)
Wow, 4-0 night tonight
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That's the way to go! Hope for the same on ur picks tomorrow.
August 18 2012
Atlanta @ Indiana - 7:00pm
Spread: IND -7.5
Total: 157
ML: +260 and -290
Log5 Estimated Win Probability: ATL 29%, IND 71%
Calculated Money Line - ATL: +250, IND: -290
Calculated Spread: IND -7.0
Expected Tempo: 81.28 possessions per team (League Average: 80)
Expected Offensive Efficiencies: ATL 93.04, IND 97.62
Projected Score: ATL 77 IND 83
Projected Total: 160 (+3 from posted total)
Analysis: Two under rated squads that kicked off the 2nd half with wins meet. Atlanta had a nice win at Chicago and Indiana overcame a slow start against the Mystics to cover. While my model here pretty much shows results that mirror the Vegas lines, I do like the eyeball test here. Atlanta got a great effort tonight, and last night Indiana was pushed around by a Washington team in the first 3 quarters. Chalk it up to perhaps Olympic Break rust, but if Washington can do that against Indiana, I think Atlanta can give Indiana a close game too. Take the 7.5 points Atlanta is getting, because I think their win tonight will give them some momentum. And because I expect a close back and forth game, play the over 157 too.
Plays: ATL +7.5, Over 157
New York @ Connecticut - 7:00pm
Spread: CON -7.5
Total: 152
ML: +300 and -330
Log5 Estimated Win Probability: NY 14%, CON 86%
Calculated Money Line - NY +600 and CON -675
Calculated Spread: CON -14
Expected Tempo: 80.68 possessions per team (League Average: 80)
Expected Offensive Efficiencies: WAS 83.02, IND 105.75
Projected Score: NY 70 CON 86
Projected Total: 156 (+4 from posted total)
Analysis: New York pulled the first upset of the 2nd half with a surprising win over Connecticut on Thursday. It wasn't just a win, it was a flat out stomping. I don't know what was the deal with Connecticut, olympic hangover perhaps, but they didn't even show up. And I think that was a reality check for Connecticut. In the return trip back to Connecticut, the Sun are angry at what happened and are out to prove it was a fluke. And Connecticut has manhandled the Liberty at home this year. I think the spread at -7.5 is a joke, Connecticut will easily cover that and stomp New York badly for payback and revenge. Expect a rebound for Connecticut here and a game that will be decided at halftime. I don't think the Sun will let off the gas either, it will be a start to finish rout, and therefore the over looks good.
EDIT: While I think the Sun are good enough to win either way, proceed with caution if Asja Jones is out of the game tomorrow. Her abscence will hurt the Sun, though I think they are talented enough to cover without her. But be careful.
Plays: CON -7.5, Over 152
Los Angeles @ Seattle - 10:00pm
Spread: LA -4
Total: 146
Money Line: +170 and -190
Log5 Estimated Win Probability: LA 47%, SEA 53%
Calculated Money Line - LA +105, SEA -125
Calculated Spread: SEA -1.0
Expected Tempo: 77.04 possessions per team (League Average: 80)
Expected Offensive Efficiencies: LA 101.57, SEA 93.26
Projected Score: LA 75 SEA 72
Projected Total: 147 (+1 from posted total)
Analysis: One of those rare occasions where my model favors one team on the projected spread, but favors the other on the projected result. The value is on Seattle and the 4 points they are getting at home. I also like that Seattle has a game under their belt from the break, while LA does not. On the other side, LA has the Storm's number and have won all 4 matchups between the teams this year. And with Sue Bird being questionable and Lauren Jackson still out, this is a game that should break the Sparks' way.
Plays: None
Last edited by frogsrangers; 08-18-12 at 03:07 PM.
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Great write-ups for tonight's games, thanks
damn, nice work sir. thanks
No play on the Storm/Sparks game. Don't think we will get a update on Sue Bird until gametime, and the spread is moving closer to the LA -5 territory, and the ML is too juiced to play the Sparks IMO. So no play on that game.
Here is the final card for today:
CON -7.5 (you can now get it at -7)
ATL +7.5 (you might be SOL because its now at +5.5)
ATL/IND O 157
NY/CON O 152
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