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No-vig run line price
Is your edge 5.5% or 2.39% in this particular MLB matchup? (or something completely different lol)
TB -114 +1.5
Wash 104 -1.5
You have Wash 120 -1.5
No-vig line of 109 suggests Wash will 47.84% of the time. You only need to win your bet 45.45%. So what edge do you have taking Wash at 120?
win prob * decimal odds -1
the no vig line is -108.67
lol its funny I was just gonna post about an old video of Justin7 where he states that every 2 cents off the no-vig closer equals to a 1% edge on your bet. Using this concept you have 11 cents of value meaning you would have a 5.5% ROI on your bet.
It just seems like such a low number. Using his theory you would need to beat the no-vig closer of Pinny MLB sides by 6 cents on average to get a 3% ROI on your baseball bets. Right now my ROI is around 8% and I only average around 4 cents off the no-vig line.
Last edited by BeardedTaco; 06-21-12 at 03:27 PM.
(1/2.0867)/(1/2.2) = 1.0543, so Edge = 5.43%
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