1. 04-17-12 06:18 PM #1
    the shadow
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    What is a system?

    I have heard that all underdogs in all major sports cover the closing line at about 50.6% of the time over the last 20 years. (don't know if that's true). That's probably a 100,000 games, who knows? However, if I were bet my buddy on every game starting now against a no vig line, do you think I would win in 20 years by taking all dogs. If so then history is repeating itself. Or will all fav's cover 50.6 % the next 20 years? Would this be called a system? No handicapping, no models etc.
    Does any know if that 50.6% stated above is close to being correct?
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  2. 04-17-12 06:34 PM #2
    the shadow
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    sorry for the typo's. I am a saluki fan!
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  3. 04-17-12 10:24 PM #3
    Joe Dogs
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    Here,s something to think about....If you would have blindly bet $100.00 on every dog in baseball,in the month of April,since 2004

    You would have netted a profit of $13,000.00

    Market inefficiency in the start of the season.
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  4. 04-17-12 11:03 PM #4
    hutennis
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    Could it be simply variance?
    Is not it a much simpler explanation than "market inefficiencies"?

    Could it be that you just fishing for data?
    Last edited by hutennis; 04-17-12 at 11:07 PM.
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  5. 04-17-12 11:07 PM #5
    chopperocker
    Hang on baby, cuz life's a BITCH!!!
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    a system is a trend based betting strategy involving an entire league or association. if you dig deeper you will find stronger trends based on moneyline price, point spread, home/away, coaching staff... etc.

    heres a system - play AGAINST home favs of -3 in NFL. they only cover 37%. and another - play on road favs of a bye in NFL 26-7-2 ATS.

    heres a trend - John Harbaugh Ravens are 8-3 SU and 3-7-1 ATS as a home fav vs divisional opponent and 18-0 SU and 14-4 ATS as a home fav vs non-divisional opponent.
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  6. 04-17-12 11:27 PM #6
    mathdotcom
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    A system is taking the Yankees on Tuesday but only if it rained on Monday and if the starting pitcher is black and the leadoff hitter is balding.
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