1. 03-24-12 01:21 PM #1
    zoo youk
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    Serious question about the UF and Louisville line and how it was made.

    i like every else thought the Cards would open a 1 2 point fav or PK at worst. confused about them being the under dog considering the rum they are on and just blasted MSU while Gators have had fairly light competition. so my question is this, most bookmakers know squares like to think like this......"well loisville barely beat marquette in the big east champ game and florida just handled quette by DD so surely they can beat louisville" do u guys think this was a big factor into setting the line or no they do not consider these things at all?
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  2. 03-24-12 01:23 PM #2
    zoo youk
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    sorry for typos..typing on tablet since the upgrade has been shitty. driving me bonkers.
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  3. 03-24-12 01:24 PM #3
    Saunders FTW
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    The golden rule in sports gambling. If something doesn't make sense, bet it
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  4. 03-24-12 01:25 PM #4
    k13
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    Are you saying MSU is better than Marquette?

    Either way, quick look at something like sagarin ratings has Florida 89.57 and Louisville 88.37

    I'm sure Kenpom has Florida rated higher as well.

    Vegas uses their own power ratings. There's no trap line, action is split. You are only trapping yourself.
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  5. 03-24-12 01:34 PM #5
    zoo youk
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    im locked in on florida anyway. never planned on betting louisville. i just thiught for sure ville would be the fav so started pondering amd threw out the question
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  6. 03-24-12 01:36 PM #6
    dice
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    Vegas tries to get equal action. That's it. During the tournament, if one team is likely a huge public favorite, they may start at -8. If both teams are evenly matched based on public perception they may pick one team with a slight edge and start at -2. Don't read into how the lines are decided for the the tournament; it will drive you crazy!
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  7. 03-24-12 01:36 PM #7
    convick
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    No way should Ville be favored. Youll see why tonight. (today, evening, whatever time they play)
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  8. 03-24-12 01:39 PM #8
    zoo youk
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    k13, qhat i was getting at was most squares like to have a thought process of looking at past games and look at in this way "in the beast champ game ville played a tough game agaimst quette and juat barely cae out on top, now florida just beat quette by dd so they cqn surely beat ville"

    alot of ppl tend to think like that so was curious if these inesmakers factor that in
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  9. 03-24-12 01:41 PM #9
    zoo youk
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    Quote Originally Posted by dice View Post
    Vegas tries to get equal action. That's it. During the tournament, if one team is likely a huge public favorite, they may start at -8. If both teams are evenly matched based on public perception they may pick one team with a slight edge and start at -2. Don't read into how the lines are decided for the the tournament; it will drive you crazy!
    if they wanted equal action i highly doubt they would have ville a dog as they are a public darling right now.
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  10. 03-24-12 01:43 PM #10
    agendaman
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    fla. was made fav. for 1 reason only /they will win and cover /analyze dont over analyze / finally hedge somewhere
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  11. 03-24-12 01:46 PM #11
    LT Profits
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    K13 nailed it, Pomeroy has Florida -1 also
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  12. 03-24-12 01:47 PM #12
    dice
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    Like I said. Don't read into this line. Florida is a 7 seed and Louisville is a 4 seed. It's an even matchup.
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  13. 03-24-12 01:49 PM #13
    dice
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    Quote Originally Posted by agendaman View Post
    fla. was made fav. for 1 reason only /they will win and cover /analyze dont over analyze / finally hedge somewhere
    Same scenario when Iowa State beat Connecticut. Be careful.
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  14. 03-24-12 01:50 PM #14
    warriorfan707
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    Quote Originally Posted by agendaman View Post
    fla. was made fav. for 1 reason only /they will win and cover /analyze dont over analyze / finally hedge somewhere
    This post is really making me question if I want to slam Florida or not.
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  15. 03-24-12 01:51 PM #15
    Louisvillekid1
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    Quote Originally Posted by zoo youk View Post
    i like every else thought the Cards would open a 1 2 point fav or PK at worst. confused about them being the under dog considering the rum they are on and just blasted MSU while Gators have had fairly light competition. so my question is this, most bookmakers know squares like to think like this......"well loisville barely beat marquette in the big east champ game and florida just handled quette by DD so surely they can beat louisville" do u guys think this was a big factor into setting the line or no they do not consider these things at all?

    WE rolled Marq in the BE tournament and wasn't championship game...

    Game was never in doubt...
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  16. 03-24-12 01:56 PM #16
    t-wizzle
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    This line has me thinking Florida wins but no way am i betting against Louisville right now.
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  17. 03-24-12 02:02 PM #17
    Louisvillekid1
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    Just ride the train boys, don't overthink it...

    fukk vegas and their piece of shit line...

    I'll say it again, WE GOT THIS!!!
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  18. 03-24-12 02:05 PM #18
    zoo youk
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    WE rolled Marq in the BE tournament and wasn't championship game...

    Game was never in doubt...
    o shit. totally brings a moot point than lol. they played BearCats thats right I Forgot. well threads dead now.
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  19. 03-24-12 02:07 PM #19
    zoo youk
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    Louikidd, i honestly dont think Geing is going to be able to match up with Beal...BB should shit all over him and put him into foul trouble early.
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  20. 03-24-12 02:09 PM #20
    Louisvillekid1
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    your thought process is still right...

    I just think we have the better team, better coach, better pg, better center...

    And we're hott...
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  21. 03-24-12 02:11 PM #21
    chico2663
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    problem is than you have to deal with chene
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  22. 03-24-12 02:13 PM #22
    BettingWizard
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    Just ride the train boys, don't overthink it...

    fukk vegas and their piece of shit line...

    I'll say it again, WE GOT THIS!!!
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  23. 03-24-12 02:15 PM #23
    zoo youk
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1 View Post
    your thought process is still right...

    I just think we have the better team, better coach, better pg, better center...

    And we're hott...
    meant to say Young against Geing..not Beal
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  24. 03-24-12 02:17 PM #24
    zoo youk
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    LKID...no doubt you guys are hot.....BUT only on the defensive side of the ball. its been a real struggle for you guys to get baskets. simply put I dont think just defense is going to win this game ( and I know thats a bad statement to make) but Florida has to many weapons to put the ball in the hoop while Ville can really struggle at times to run their half court offense.
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  25. 03-24-12 02:17 PM #25
    PR9
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    Young sucks
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  26. 03-24-12 02:28 PM #26
    Louisvillekid1
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    Quote Originally Posted by zoo youk View Post
    LKID...no doubt you guys are hot.....BUT only on the defensive side of the ball. its been a real struggle for you guys to get baskets. simply put I dont think defense is going to win this game ( and I know thats a bad statement to make) but Florida is going to be able to out score your boys IMO.
    I think this game will be like the louisville/marq game in the BE Tournament...

    When we can get out and run we can score just fine... Our offense has gone through scoring droughts but not during this 7 game winning streak... When you play cuse/usf/new mex/mich st/ you simply can't run against them...

    Here's the biggest key for me in this game that people are overlooking...

    They have guards that should be able to break our press for the most part, however it's going to wear them down and take out their legs... Which will effect their 3 point shooting later in the game... We are holding opponents to 28% from deep since the start of the BE Tourney and that's a big reason why...

    Plus Florida's defense is getting way too much credit... I mean come on, Virginia? Norfolk?

    I have great respect for their shooters and love patric young inside, my only worry is once again dieng's foul trouble... because if we extend our matchup zone to the nba line its going to allow for their guards to penetrate an unprotected deing...

    With that being said the gators have a tendency to settle for the 3, and with our inside presence (if we don't get into foul trouble) should be a very effective combination...

    We've been playing mostly man lately, over 80% last game....

    Live by the 3, die by the 3...

    Im really starting to like the over for the fact that every 3 that miss 7/27 last game, leads to a long rebound and allows us to get out in transition where we are at our best...
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  27. 03-24-12 02:36 PM #27
    zoo youk
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    im realy leaning towards the over as well
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  28. 03-24-12 02:40 PM #28
    thetrinity
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    small lean to florida hard game to bet IMO
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  29. 03-24-12 02:40 PM #29
    D3 Mighty Ducks
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    Louisville ML for me. Thought i'd have to be laying some sort of juice before the lines came out, but I'm satisfied getting the Cards at +105.

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  30. 03-24-12 02:46 PM #30
    crispix
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    ....Can never trust a fanatic when it comes to the matters of wagering. Biased analysis' are not the way to go.


    I think Florida wins SU, but given L'ville's level of play recently, it's too hard to call. I'm staying away from this one, but that's me. GL
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  31. 03-24-12 02:47 PM #31
    Louisvillekid1
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    Quote Originally Posted by crispix View Post
    ....Can never trust a fanatic when it comes to the matters of wagering. Biased analysis' are not the way to go.


    I think Florida wins SU, but given L'ville's level of play recently, it's too hard to call. I'm staying away from this one, but that's me. GL
    7-0 so far...
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  32. 03-24-12 04:13 PM #32
    zoo youk
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    Quote Originally Posted by zoo youk View Post
    LKID...no doubt you guys are hot.....BUT only on the defensive side of the ball. its been a real struggle for you guys to get baskets. simply put I dont think just defense is going to win this game ( and I know thats a bad statement to make) but Florida has to many weapons to put the ball in the hoop while Ville can really struggle at times to run their half court offense.
    villle cant keep up so far....
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  33. 03-24-12 04:15 PM #33
    No coincidences
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    66% of the public took Louisville ML.
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  34. 03-24-12 05:32 PM #34
    zoo youk
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    what a freaking run! and without Siva. so glad i laid off a side lol
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