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Does anyone really win at MLB?
I have tried this sport for a long time and can't ever seem to come out on top. I hear a lot of people say that it is the easiest sport to cap b/c it is statistically driven. I only seem to find my profits in football and basketball and never have profited in MLB. Thinking about laying off this year but would be glad to tail someone who knows their stuff. Any thoughts are welcome.
I won small amounts in '09 & '10 with no real discipline or motivation to grind through the season, but tried hard last year and ended up 100 units from opening day until August (betting mostly anywhere from 1-6 units at a time).
While I'm hoping for similar results this year, I can't guarantee that it's that easy. Last year, the brewers were severely underrated the entire season. There tend to be players/pitchers that are underrated by the public and that's what the bettor has to find to make sure he/she is betting on the correct side. I had an inordinate amount of success betting first five and team totals last year and will most likely make that a larger part of my betting strategy going forward. If you're basing most of your analysis on starting pitchers, i'd focus on First five bets seeing as a lot of SP don't average more than 6 IP.
That being said, I totally suck at NFL. If you're not able to win on something, don't press the issue; if you need action, lower your unit size significantly so as to not throw away your NBA/NFL winnings
If you cant win at baseball then you cant win betting sports. It has the simplest and most accurate formula for gauging what sort of chance most guys have at beating sports betting...simply pick a SU winner. The holds on it as also so miniscule that if you cant overcome them you have zero chance at beating -110.
Whenever I see guys claim they can beat NFL, NCAA, NBA but cant beat baseball I see a guy who is fooling himself into thinking he is actually winning. baseball is just more apparent. You can do it everyday and if you lose at it youre losing everyday you dont have a week to fool yourself or forget how much you lost in football.
Kind of apples and oranges but is MLB as easy as non-conference CBB?
I bet the yankees and Red Sox every game. winning strategy yes?
Baseball is best in certain months , problem is its a long season so teams work harder for short periods , its not like they are not trying to win , but they really work hard end of june and other periods. everyone knows pitchers are the key to baseball. I get help from the inside . If things work out and I am around I will give my inside info , no sure fire proof , but It really helps.
low 5 figures last yr
Is hockey easy to beat? That sport uses a DimeLine
This Wantitall guy just says nonsensical shiz sometimes.
i'm gonna tail dexter this year, time to admit that i played way too many games and threw way too many darts. dexter has a profitable system, check it out, people made money following it. it involves playing totals and is based on whips and umpires.
Originally Posted by wantitall4moi
Post of the year
If it is that easy why is anyone working???
They say the same thing about stock market
Only way to win is by laying at least -200
Yes, but the problem is most gamblers can only cap football and such. In baseball you have to know how to pick dogs.
You can make a lot of money on parlays.
IMO it is the easiest to cap but everyone has a different read on risk. Some think nothing of laying -200 and it may work out in the short run,however betting dogs is the way to go. Think about it very good teams if they have a great year will loose 70 games while laying heavy wood to bet them.!! I could go on and on about this but think about it. Remember last year Balt. was @ Texas for a 4 game series and won all 4 games while Texas was laying -170 to -250 or so.!!......I hope this helps......GL
Yes. I am good. Baseball is the only sport I am really good at handicapping. I will have a thread for baseball season.
You might ask, why do i bet on all the other sports too ???
lol bc i have very little self control when it comes to betting. I know sounds bad but we all have our vices.
not true. But nothing wrong with parlaying 2 teams at -250 if you feel good about them.
If you see a team that sucks facing the Yankees or Phillies 4th or 5th starter and the underdog has its ace going play the dog.
often times Yankees and Phillies will lay -300 with the 4th guy in the rotation on the hill playing on the road against a good pitcher.
all you need to do is bet
yanks
boston
texas
philly
its that easy
This is by far my most profitable sport. I have had winning seasons every year since I began wagering sports. I expect this year to be my best yet. MLB is my cash cow.
I only make money on over/unders.
Baseball should be my best sport since I played it into college and it has been my favorite sport since I was 5... but it isn't. Only do well on over/unders and usually only in the first 3 months and then the playoffs. For some reason over/unders get tricky in the 2nd half of the season.
...no
not everyone has the skills at it, just like the stock market. But it isnt even really skill but a mentality. Bottomline is guys who do both have a screw loose to begin with, a screw that deters them from being able to make a profit. As in they have serious control issues or lack the mental capacity to handle losing or having no control when they start spiraling.
If it is that easy why is anyone working???
They say the same thing about stock market
Stock market is fixed anyway but if you pay attention r know the patterns on how and when they fix it you can get in and out on certain things quick and painless. Other than that you load up on long term stuff and hope you can out gain inflation, which hasnt been a given lately.
With baseball in particular you MUST be able to pick winners. Why the holds are low the odds can be extreme. So if youre hammering sides one way and laying big vig and cant pick the right side then youre going to get hammered. But baseball isnt about picking a winner it is about picking a side that everyone else is going to bet then come back and buy the other side after it moves enough. That might take more actual 'skill' than simply picking a winner however.
I'll be going into Vegas for the first month just to fool around and see what can still be done. Going to take either 5K or 10K depending and just try to lay it in like we used to (just with fewer games). But regardless the goal is to double up plus expenses in the first 3 weeks. Then see what happens that fourth week. I will obviously know how the books handle baseball after the first 4 or 5 days though as they start seeing me regularly.
But for most guys here who have small bankrolls or are completely pedestrian and betting 100 or less a game baseball shouldnt pose any problems if you pay attention at all.
I do. Every year. Documented.
The best advice I can give you is to bet on really bad pitching
Hilarious, 80% of the replies here are winners over year plus stretches. How are the books still in business with all these sharks lurking
all i know is i hate betting unders in baseball just to lose it in the ninth. that feeling is worse than losing by a meaningless 3 in baskets...
hockey by far is the most difficult sport to beat except saturdays in canada when the crowds are extremely loud
Follow my spreadsheet.. I win
Because we are retired multimillionaires w/9" roosters and a harem of 18yo honeys
Nothing is easy
Everyone from time to time has a winning seasons like all the other sports
Be careful, stay away from big chalks unless in a parlay
I think I understand the part about the miniscule hold with a dime line compared to other sports, but wouldn't the "simply pick a SU winner" also apply to other sports if just playing moneylines rather than pointspreads?
yes more people would be better off laying the points if they like the fav and taking the ML with the dog. With some obvious exceptions. Also MLs on dogs in spread sports usually have more hold taken out of them than ML in baseball or even soccer and hockey.
The hold is baseball makes it so the books 'advantage' can be taken completely away pretty easily. The same cant be said for spread based sports. Baseball is filled with -120/110 lines. To get that in a spread based sport that would mean a 2 point or less favorite. Sometimes even a close to a 'pk' line. Even a 135/125 line in baseball is very common, that is still less than a 3 pt 'fav' in most spread based sports. Something that just doesnt come up all that often, and when it does -135 is generally paired to only a +115 line at most places.
Spread ML also break a lot more sharply than baseball odds as well. MLs in spread based sports can be 350/290 in baseball that is more likely going to be 350/320 maybe even 350/330. So while odds in baseball can be extreme they arent nearly as extreme as in spread based sports.
Add in the old "never" lay heavy chalk in baseball and it gets even more ridiculous. A -350 fav in baseball would be considered 'crazy' by most guys, but in comparison to a spread based sport a -350 fav equates to about a -7 or so spread. Most guys dont lay more than -200 in baseball and that 'only' equates to a -4.5 or so spread.
so if you try and compare apples to oranges and look at baseball and correlate it to spreads there can be a lot of 'value' in some teams even with -300 lines. Simply because a team is just that much better than the other but books still want action and thus putting up -400 or more (which might be more true but would deter betting of any kind more than likely) they put up a number that some people will be willing to lay and some will be willing to take.
Interesting comparison and definitely worth considering. Given this perspective, what do you view is the optimal strategy for betting baseball that most takes advantage of line inefficiencies?
parlayin- i can't respond to PMs since i don't have 20 posts but everything you said in your PM was correct. it's definitely more complicated than just betting on pitchers with high ERAs but it's a really good place to start. results are solid going back a few years
and ignore everything wantitall4moi says, everything he's saying nonsense and fluff
Easy way to bet on baseball. Bet on the favorites to cover if:
They're a high scoring team (ie, never the Giants)
They're a winning team
They're playing against a weak team, but not a weak team's good pitcher
They haven't covered in their last 2 or 3 games
Martingale it for 3 or 4 games (while applying the rules above)
Seems rather easy which makes one assume it doesn't work. Tigers didn't go more than 3 straight games the first half of last season without covering given that criteria, Diamondbacks and Rangers didn't go more than 3 games in the second half of the season.
If you are in this to lose money, sure
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