[No coincidences]

Just one. Does it work? Can you just go either 1-0 and not put your winnings on something else or 0-1, cut your losses and call it a day? Even on the monster Saturdays when college and pro football and basketball overlaps?

I haven't mastered the art of being selective. Not even close. Seems like, in theory, this strategy is the right one.

[cant call it]

I try to limit myself to only making plays that I am confident with.

[RyanLeafOfBets]

Well, If you see my Spreadsheet, I usually make about 58583255843 plays a day. I'm trying to stick to 1-2 in Vegas. Only 1 yesterday, only 1 today, prob only 1 tomorrow. Saturday and Sunday are going to be when I have problems. Saturday's card is going to be insane.

[RyanLeafOfBets]

The only issue w/ this is that if you lose an earlier game (7:00est game), there's still so many late games you can bet on to try to win your money back.

When i'm down, I'll bet on absolutely anything to get back to even. Obviously a problem.

So, that's why tonight, I didn't bet on a game until 10:30 UCLA/Utah OVER. Tail me you hamburgers!

[blackbeSSt]

my one play of the day. my last 108 betpoints

PARLAY (8 TEAMS)
[502] ORLANDO -600
[542] NORTH CAROLINA -1100
[548] FLA ATLANTIC -700
[564] DENVER U -900
[573] LONG BEACH STAT -550
[577] CAL SANTA BARB -1200
[588] IDAHO U -600
[601] WOFFORD -500

108.20 / 205.24

[FourLengthsClear]

Just one. Does it work? Can you just go either 1-0 and not put your winnings on something else or 0-1, cut your losses and call it a day? Even on the monster Saturdays when college and pro football and basketball overlaps?

I haven't mastered the art of being selective. Not even close. Seems like, in theory, this strategy is the right one.

Tripe. Why should there be exactly one game a day where you see sufficient advantage/edge to make a play?

If you don't like anything on Tuesday, don't make a play If there are 6 games on Wednesday that you like why would you play only one?

[cant call it]

my one play of the day. my last 108 betpoints PARLAY (8 TEAMS) [502] ORLANDO -600 [542] NORTH CAROLINA -1100 [548] FLA ATLANTIC -700 [564] DENVER U -900 [573] LONG BEACH STAT -550 [577] CAL SANTA BARB -1200 [588] IDAHO U -600 [601] WOFFORD -500 108.20 / 205.24

GL blackers. I am on nc state ML tonight, watch the wolfpack lose by 30

[ebbearsfb1]

Coin try this with labby lines... like 10 10 10 10 ... so your betting to win 20..... if it wins you can shut down for the night... if you have the need then you can still bet something at 9 or whenever .. keeps you from chasing and losing your rooster... (now only if I listened to myself)

[WvGambler]

I'm absolutely down to 1 play a day and that's only 3-4 days a week. I don't cap NBA well, and I'm waiting for the tournament in NCAA to really bet much. Only been watching Big East hoops intensely.

Probably bet very minimally until MLB season...or I'll go broke.

[blackbeSSt]

GL blackers. I am on nc state ML tonight, watch the wolfpack lose by 30

HA. well knowing my luck today in the sbr casino/book you are golden

[big0mar]

Made 24 plays yesterday

[FourLengthsClear]

Made 24 plays yesterday

Snap.

[Darkside Magick]

volume people!!!!!!!!!!!

[dredmahawkus]

I avg like 20 plays a day. As long as you get a good number that's all it about. That and staying away from parlays. As long as you can figure out the right side to be on and only make str8 bets you win!

I find when you have the funds to play as many games as you like say 10-30 a day and don't limit yourself like I only have enough for 2 plays...then you win. I have a place I have unlimited credit.....I Win. If I throw a couple hundred on 5 dimes play 4 games then it's only a matter of time before it's gone. You can't recover from a bad run.

Play anything you like and have plenty of bankroll! That's the only way to win

[Darkside Magick]

I avg like 20 plays a day. As long as you get a good number that's all it about. That and staying away from parlays. As long as you can figure out the right side to be on and only make str8 bets you win!

I find when you have the funds to play as many games as you like say 10-30 a day and don't limit yourself like I only have enough for 2 plays...then you win. I have a place I have unlimited credit.....I Win. If I throw a couple hundred on 5 dimes play 4 games then it's only a matter of time before it's gone. You can't recover from a bad run.

Play anything you like and have plenty of bankroll! That's the only way to win

here is a example


if you start with a $500 bankroll and avg. 1.5% everyday, your bankroll after one year is close to 115k


it is easy to get that when u spread bankroll over many (+ev) bets a day and/week than one bet a day

[No coincidences]

Tripe. Why should there be exactly one game a day where you see sufficient advantage/edge to make a play?

If you don't like anything on Tuesday, don't make a play If there are 6 games on Wednesday that you like why would you play only one?

I understand what you're saying -- I guess I should say being much more selective vs. actually one play per day and only one play per day.

I just think that, regardless of how confident you are in the card, if you make 8-10 plays you're going to get burned by some bad beats. Plus, it'd be hard to justify making that many plays while being honest about truly putting enough time into capping each of them to put them all on your card.

[Big Bear]

In MLB this is a good strategy

[No coincidences]

As long as you get a good number that's all it about.

This is quickly becoming the most overrated saying in gambling.

I've beaten the closing number on a regular basis over the past month and it hasn't gotten me anywhere.

Obviously you want to beat the closing number and that helps your bottom line in theory over the long run, but it's no magic bullet.

[BIGDAY]

This saturday I may only play one MMA fight. Not large by any means, just only fight I see value in. But, if there were 8 out of 8 fights that I saw value in I would bet all 8.

[No coincidences]

This saturday I may only play one MMA fight. Not large by any means, just only fight I see value in. But, if there were 8 out of 8 fights that I saw value in I would bet all 8.

But how many times do you "see value" in a game or a match that turns out being wrong? I see guys all the time talking about weak spots in lines, but I find it hard to believe most of us know more than oddsmakers when it comes to setting a line aside from a few isolated instances every once in a while.

[FourLengthsClear]

This is quickly becoming the most overrated saying in gambling.

I've beaten the closing number on a regular basis over the past month and it hasn't gotten me anywhere.

Obviously you want to beat the closing number and that helps your bottom line in theory over the long run, but it's no magic bullet.

One month? Seriously?
Beating the closer is imperative but variance will cloud that until you have thousands of plays logged.

[Darkside Magick]

one month? Seriously?
Beating the closer is imperative but variance will cloud that until you have thousands of plays logged.

This.

[face]

i wish i was better at isolating plays and going big on them. imagine if once a week you could win a 10 percent of your bankroll play

[Darkside Magick]

i wish i was better at isolating plays and going big on them. Imagine if once a week you could win a 10 percent of your bankroll play

you would be broke!!!!

[FourLengthsClear]

But how many times do you "see value" in a game or a match that turns out being wrong? I see guys all the time talking about weak spots in lines, but I find it hard to believe most of us know more than oddsmakers when it comes to setting a line aside from a few isolated instances every once in a while.

Then the value you are seeing is a mirage.

Whatever method you are using to identify that value should be backtested, scrutinised and validated. You need to have a sound basis for making plays; a method that is proven. 'Seeing' something based on intuition ain't gonna cut it.

[pimike]

Answer is yes!! As mentioned if there are other solid plays then play. Bottom line those who lose always chase hence can't ever win long term.

Try it my friend. However u are the type that won't stay with it cause u like the action to much. Lol

[Madison]

Just one. Does it work? Can you just go either 1-0 and not put your winnings on something else or 0-1, cut your losses and call it a day? Even on the monster Saturdays when college and pro football and basketball overlaps? I haven't mastered the art of being selective. Not even close. Seems like, in theory, this strategy is the right one.

You seem like a decent guy so here goes... Discipline my friend. The answer for the most part. If you are in this for the action and CHASE you are DONE long term. Or if your bet amounts fluctuate to much.

I put food on my table for 16 years gambling. Discipline was self taught like all of us the hard way. I take nothing away from the volume bettors however you either need a system or you need to dedicate your day to capping. I succeeded in the day by capping from morning until night.

So, with all that being said, I think the key is simply this. Do some capping sure, but let the bets come to you! Most days I make 1 or possibly 2 plays, some days none, but never ever chase or force a bet. Think of the week more like one day or the year more like a month. If 300-500 bets a year can't get you off then I can't help.

A way to maybe seque into this would be to have a recreational unit. For me it's .20 of my actual unit. If I just can't stand to not have some action then I keep my bets real small.BOL. Keep in mind it's a long grind (hopefully)

[ebbearsfb1]

Four lengths do you have a thread? To each is own coin... being the closer is nice but like you said isn't the end all be all can't tell you how many times I've beat the closer and still lost... good luck coin slot

[blackbeSSt]

^^ eb you post your plays?

[ebbearsfb1]

^^ eb you post your plays?

Sometimes I don't think many people ever follow my threads so its usually not worth the time... if I had people that were going to follow then I would put a thread together for people to discuss plays and what not

[convick]

I've been meaning to go exclusively to making 1-2 bets per day.

BettingWizard and Dad have demonstrated recently that if you pick your spots, you can easily have a 90% hit rate. Now, their runs were out of the ordinary, but I can see how picking only 1-2 games, you could maintain a 60-65 winning %.

[blackbeSSt]

Sometimes I don't think many people ever follow my threads so its usually not worth the time... if I had people that were going to follow then I would put a thread together for people to discuss plays and what not

well shit, judging by the 6 "top sportsbook winner" badges you got, im sure you'd get a following

[Ralphie1412]

How many threads do u need? Between NC '11 picks and the most unsuccessful thread with canucks its getting out of hand. Just have one thread. Not to mention you could never do one play a day because a line would reverse three cents prompting a play.

[hydrosmak]

How many threads do u need? Between NC '11 picks and the most unsuccessful thread with canucks its getting out of hand. Just have one thread. Not to mention you could never do one play a day because a line would reverse three cents prompting a play.

You and dynamite must be best buds...

[BigDofBA]

I know a guy that only bets one game like every week or so.

That being said, when he bets, he bets like 5k and he only backs good teams. I never seeing him taking an ugly dog because of RLM or what not.

I think his last bet was on Alabama in the BCS title game.

Some guys on here probabably make
More bets a week than he does in a year.
He doesn't bet the NFl either. He said the lines are nearly impossible to beat.