1. 01-26-12 03:29 PM #36
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,631
    Betpoints: 32319

    Quote Originally Posted by cant call it View Post
    I try to limit myself to only making plays that I am confident with.
    Me too, if I hit an early game, I might play a late game if I got a good feel for, if I lose my best bet of the card, more time than not, I'll pack it in for the day
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 01-26-12 03:32 PM #37
    FourLengthsClear
    King of the Idiots
    FourLengthsClear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-29-10
    Posts: 3,808
    Betpoints: 508

    Quote Originally Posted by ebbearsfb1 View Post
    Four lengths do you have a thread? To each is own coin... being the closer is nice but like you said isn't the end all be all can't tell you how many times I've beat the closer and still lost... good luck coin slot
    No. I started a thread/spreadsheet in early 2011 where I put in 2 or 3 plays each day but most were soccer plays and books where Americans are not welcome so there inevitably there was not much interest.

    Even beating the closer by a full point on every single play (in basketball) would 'only' give you a win expectation of around 56% and even with that expectation, there would be a 21% chance of losing in dollar terms over the course of 100 plays at -110. Variance is a pain in the a$$ but if you consistently beat the closer, you will win out in the long run.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 01-26-12 05:02 PM #38
    seaborneq
    It's time to collect
    seaborneq's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-08-06
    Posts: 22,556
    Betpoints: 13422

    I can limit myself to one play anytime and no play anytime. Tonight I didn't like anything so it is a no play night.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 01-26-12 05:08 PM #39
    stevenash
    stevenash's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 01-17-11
    Posts: 62,631
    Betpoints: 32319

    ^
    I did that last Friday
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 01-26-12 05:13 PM #40
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by Ralphie1412 View Post
    How many threads do u need? Between NC '11 picks and the most unsuccessful thread with canucks its getting out of hand. Just have one thread. Not to mention you could never do one play a day because a line would reverse three cents prompting a play.
    This is a thread of plays?

    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 01-26-12 05:27 PM #41
    DemoralizdDreamr
    DemoralizdDreamr's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-04-11
    Posts: 4,319
    Betpoints: 78

    Rather bet 3, 2-1 is a good day. 3-0 is great.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 01-26-12 05:30 PM #42
    Smoke
    Smoke's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-09
    Posts: 48,111
    Betpoints: 1510

    No
    Some of don't have SBS like no coin
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 01-26-12 05:34 PM #43
    Ralphie1412
    You Come at the King You Best Not Miss
    Ralphie1412's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-08
    Posts: 13,963
    Betpoints: 1209

    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post

    This is a thread of plays?


    Nope just another attention seeking thread. NC you are the worst gambler on this forum. No one cares about your gay ass lingo like "pre market" and "sharp shops"

    You can't possibly have that gambling vocab and your record and think you are good at this.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 01-26-12 05:47 PM #44
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by Ralphie1412 View Post
    Nope just another attention seeking thread. NC you are the worst gambler on this forum. No one cares about your gay ass lingo like "pre market" and "sharp shops"

    You can't possibly have that gambling vocab and your record and think you are good at this.
    Get a life fatty. Stay the f\*\*k out of my threads if they bother you so much.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 01-26-12 05:52 PM #45
    ebbearsfb1
    ebbearsfb1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-07-08
    Posts: 18,815
    Betpoints: 1694

    Quote Originally Posted by blackbeSSt View Post
    well shit, judging by the 6 "top sportsbook winner" badges you got, im sure you'd get a following
    Thanks for the kind words, maybe I will create a thread and stick with it..
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 01-26-12 06:16 PM #46
    suicidekings
    Update your status
    suicidekings's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-23-09
    Posts: 9,962
    Betpoints: 0

    As stated above, 1 play per day might create the illusion of security, but that's all it is.

    I have about a dozen general criteria that I'm looking for in every game, loosely applied to narrow the field of options. Sometimes that yields 6 games, sometimes zero. This thread seems to follow the premise that opportunities are evenly distributed on a day-to-day, week-to-week basis, but we all know that's not true.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 01-26-12 06:17 PM #47
    Ralphie1412
    You Come at the King You Best Not Miss
    Ralphie1412's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-29-08
    Posts: 13,963
    Betpoints: 1209

    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post

    Get a life fatty. Stay the f\*\*k out of my threads if they bother you so much.

    I'm not fat, but good to know you get your info from a transsexual Greek.

    It's impossible to stay out of your threads. You have 600. What's even scarier is that you are over 30 years old and have never missed a day on here. I'm talking ALL day, it's really sad.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 01-26-12 06:19 PM #48
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by Ralphie1412 View Post
    I'm not fat, but good to know you get your info from a transsexual Greek.

    It's impossible to stay out of your threads. You have 600. What's even scarier is that you are over 30 years old and have never missed a day on here. I'm talking ALL day, it's really sad.
    It's impossible to stay out of my threads because you are obviously bored out of your mind and just can't seem to quit me.

    Just quit. I dare you. Ignore function. Look into it. You can't do it. I've been asking you for months, yet here you are -- wasting time and trolling through in a thread relevant to gamblers everywhere.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 01-26-12 06:30 PM #49
    BIGDAY
    angelman.org
    BIGDAY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-17-10
    Posts: 48,241
    Betpoints: 24866

    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    But how many times do you "see value" in a game or a match that turns out being wrong? I see guys all the time talking about weak spots in lines, but I find it hard to believe most of us know more than oddsmakers when it comes to setting a line aside from a few isolated instances every once in a while.
    I am only good at seeing this in MMA. I believe odds makers occasionally will make lines knowing/expecting what the public will wager. Certain fighters are very "likable/popular" but there stylistic matchup does not bode well for their fight. Anything can and does happen in MMA, but I truly do feel that MMA is a sport that the books really try hard to middle themselves. Therefor, finding value against hyped/popular fighters can happen with each and every card.

    Hope that makes some sense. I've started drinking tonight already.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 01-26-12 06:32 PM #50
    No coincidences
    Baseball at The Corner
    No coincidences's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-18-10
    Posts: 76,300
    Betpoints: 16541

    Quote Originally Posted by BIGDAY View Post
    I am only good at seeing this in MMA. I believe odds makers occasionally will make lines knowing/expecting what the public will wager. Certain fighters are very "likable/popular" but there stylistic matchup does not bode well for their fight. Anything can and does happen in MMA, but I truly do feel that MMA is a sport that the books really try hard to middle themselves. Therefor, finding value against hyped/popular fighters can happen with each and every card.

    Hope that makes some sense. I've started drinking tonight already.
    I know nothing about MMA, so I'll take your word for it Big Day.

    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 01-26-12 06:38 PM #51
    Smoke
    Smoke's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-09-09
    Posts: 48,111
    Betpoints: 1510

    No coin has 30K posts in just 2 years

    Guy needs to get out his moms basement
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 01-26-12 06:44 PM #52
    BigDofBA
    BigDofBA's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-30-09
    Posts: 19,311
    Betpoints: 2011

    It's definitely best not to fall in love with every game on the board but with that said, I don't think betting one game a day is going to save you.

    You're going to end up betting the next day anyway so what does it matter?

    What if there is three games you like today and none you like tomorrow? So you're only going to be playing one of the three games you like today and end up playing one you don't like the next day?

    Basically you're going to be betting almost everyday. You might as well play what you like. One bet a day would be about 30-31 bets a month.

    I doubt your winning percentage would be much different.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 01-26-12 06:46 PM #53
    BigDofBA
    BigDofBA's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-30-09
    Posts: 19,311
    Betpoints: 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Smoke View Post
    No coin has 30K posts in just 2 years Guy needs to get out his moms basement
    So what's worse, having 30k posts on an internet message board, or trying to make some of fun one by posting on an internet message board?

    We all post here. It's pretty stupid to make fun of someone else when you're doing the same thing.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 01-26-12 06:48 PM #54
    PAULYPOKER
    I slipped Tricky Dick a hit of LSD!
    PAULYPOKER's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-06-08
    Posts: 36,585
    Betpoints: 1

    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Just one. Does it work? Can you just go either 1-0 and not put your winnings on something else or 0-1, cut your losses and call it a day? Even on the monster Saturdays when college and pro football and basketball overlaps? I haven't mastered the art of being selective. Not even close. Seems like, in theory, this strategy is the right one.
    I have been trying to get this through to ya since day one Coin.............
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 01-26-12 07:36 PM #55
    thetrinity
    penetrate me to tears
    thetrinity's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-25-11
    Posts: 22,430
    Betpoints: 5536

    absolutely terrible strategy IMO. i do think with the run u are on that you should be more selective, it lessens the swings.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 01-26-12 07:37 PM #56
    TR88
    TR88's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-10-10
    Posts: 9,364
    Betpoints: 0

    5 to 8 bets a week
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
First 12
Top
« Previous Thread | Players Talk | Next Thread »