When you post your picks unless you are 100000% confident and even then try not use words like "How can you not take this" or "lock of the year" - when I post some of my picks in the forum I never use these words because I know if I lose I make a joke out of myself, so try to be modest about your picks and rate them on a scale of 1 to 5 - that joke of the "over" 193.5 on the NBA game was really a ridiculous one.
Learn the lesson fellows.