[RoadFavorites$$$]

Taking a shit in the dumpster saves money on your water bill.

[FourLengthsClear]

1990 is too far back only go back to the 2 pt conversion reinstatement.

Your numbers are basically against generic closers which can be skewed a lot. I have 5 databases I can look at and theyre up to 3-4% in extremes on results. Which is obviously a lot and too much to use as a guideline.

Obviously SU winners are never going to change, what will change is when the fav covers. I can skew it around with best available at all books and give dogs a slight edge in 'covering' but for the most part betting a dog to cover that you dont think has a chance to win SU is just bad business.

NBA is a little different but overall the percentages are the same there are just alot more games in the NBA than in the NFL. NCAA is really the spot where you can 'safely' bet dogs to 'cover' a spread simply because the numbers in those games, both hoops and foots are a lot more extreme.

LOL. You have literally no idea you funny you are.

[wantitall4moi]

Anyone that could accurately predict line moves a large percentage of the time would get rich easily, just as you'd get rich easily if you could accurately predict games a large percentage of the time. People simply aren't able to do it, though.

thats why people should learn to bet baseball good training. When I was at my peak I was getting the right side of the moves about 88% of the time. That is like stealing money.

Now that isnt saying the moves were right or wrong just that the moves were so that you could bet both teams and not lose anything.

If they had 10 cent MLs in football and basketball it could be done there as well. Pinnacle is close at 12and 15 but they go up drastically if the spreads are more than nominal. But Pinnacle offers as low as 8 cents lines and only a dime line all the way to 169. So a huge difference in holds in those sports. Plus MLs come out way too late to take advantage of an 'opener' status.

That is why baseball is king for people serious about making money betting on sports.

[wantitall4moi]

LOL. You have literally no idea you funny you are.

no, I just know that past results are really pretty meaningless other than trying to see how they stack up against certain approaches.

I can take every game that has been played since back to about 1987 and show you 10 different sets of results ATS. When people want to live and die by percentages then THAT is very meaningful. It isnt as simple as saying X is this and Y is that. because there are about 5 perfectly legitimate results for each.

You can give me a team and tell me theyre 125-145-10 ATS since whenever, I can go and look and show that with the 'best' available number they might be 132-142-6. One result is 44.6% the other is 47%. 2.5% is a huge difference especially since most people are coin flippers anyway in terms of ability to pick a winner.

Thats why so many people stress always getting the best of it because that is the only way they an win. People that are actually good at it can survive getting numbers that arent ideal, but theyre also smart enough to realize that getting the best of it makes them that much better.