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Please evaluate the GB Prop
A local just offered me 10:1 on GreenBay losing one of its next three games. I would be betting that GB loses at least 1 of the next 3 games. I know the Packers have been on fire, and they have a pretty esay remaining schedule, but i'm sure that 10:1 is way too high. I found odds online of +115 . What are your thoughts on this bet? How many units would you put down on this?
R u serious? As many units as I could possibly muster up, given that I will be hedging week 17. Run, don't walk to the bank.
Sounds suspicious...
save your money
Packers will go 16-0
Seriously, like half your bankroll. If they don't lose one of the next two, you can hedge out on the last one. Especially at 10-1 odds.
Last edited by ncsubowen; 12-14-11 at 11:56 PM.
I'd be inclined to agree with you had Greg Jennings not gotten hurt in that last game. I think that GB will be careful the next couple of weeks. We'll see a lot of Matt Flynn (who is actually a decent QB in his own right) and backups.Originally Posted by Emily_Haines
Plus, everyone they play is going to have it out for them. People like to play the spoiler.
Irrelevant.
I see -185 on yes 16-0 at bodog. 5Dimes might have it up later this week. 35% guaranteed profit on an arb
Unless Detroit has some major injuries, I don't see GB being above -500 for that week 17 game.
10/1 is INSANE. Is he reliable?
Thank you Jonah! That was a rookie mistake by me not considering the hedge in week 17. That's awesome!
hoping for a loss the first 2 games for a loss then hedging the last with a ML that will be -500 to -800 is throwing money away. talking 4% vs. 35%
hedge -185 16-0
Depends wheather you think they are going to sit their starters ala New Orleans a few years ago or your hunch says they're going to shoot for the perfect record.
New Orleans didn't sit their starters. They wanted the perfect season. Colts sat their starters, lost their mo jo, thus giving a SB to New Orleans.
NO sat their starters after losing to Dallas in week 15. They went into the playoffs on a 3 game losing streak.
^^^If they sat their starters ala New Orleans than I guess they would have already have a loss in which case the point would be moot.To think I almost wrote touche.
Green Bay aint sitting their starters with 0 losses.
Only shot is losing to detroit week 17. odds seem good considering I don't see Det being +1000 in that game.
Their last two regular season games are at home, aren't they? You think those fans are just going to sit there and be happy to see the second-teamers? I don't think so.
a team thats recently experienced so much injury in their history is probably ok with resting for playoffs when home field is locked throughout.
GB fans are the most loyal in the NFL. If GB sits Rodgers week 17 as a precaution there would be no fan dissent.
Assuming you trust this guy, you need to bet as much as you can afford on this offer. If they haven't lost by week 17 you will have the option of hedging you bet and guaranteeing profit. To make it worth your while you should try to get down as much as he will allow.
Take it. They're gonna take the foot off the gas in the last two games if they win this weekend.
Yeah, he's reliable. I've been playing with him for 3 years. He's the same guy that gave me a live ML of 7:1 on CLE last week when they were trailing by 4 @ 2nd & goal with 3 minutes left. He's just in it for the action.
I don't have any money @ Bodog right now, and don't feel comfortable adding until I see how the changes affect it. I haven't seen a line for this at the three books I'm using.
Why just hedge in week 17? Wouldn't make sense to bet big on the GB ML all three weeks?
Even if that is true you would be crazy* not to take 10/1 and hedge it.
*If you were sure the local would pay.
Exactly!
Haha, what a clueless post.
I hope you took this to the bank...Hope you didn't get cute and hedge early.
Dude, I planned on hedging every game, but I never transferred any sizable sum to my account, so I never got the chance. That was all money! I will probably never get another opportunity like this, and still can't believe it hit.
Congrats!Dude, I planned on hedging every game, but I never transferred any sizable sum to my account, so I never got the chance. That was all money! I will probably never get another opportunity like this, and still can't believe it hit.
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