[SlickRick1382]

I've recently made the mistake of hedging a bet at halftime, which in the end, the original bet turned out to be the winner. Example yesterday I was having an absolute atrocious day gambling. Went against my better judgement on some plays and it wound up costing me. Being that I was already down for the day and to further protect against any more losses, since it looks like it was destined to be "one of those days", I decided to hedge my bet. I hedged the bet on a total at half time despite the fact that it was on pace to cover, mainly because that bet was a 5 unit play and I was already in the hole 5.5 units.

In that situation was I right to hedge it and basically eat the vig? Do you let it ride? Do you rarely ever hedge your bets unless your almost certain its going to lose? Do you hedge when you're having a bad day, like I did, to stop the bleeding?

Just looking for some opinions and possible insight.

Obviously in hindsight I should of let it ride and would of been close to even for the day which would of been great, all things considering. Unfortunately it's hindsight

Thanks in advance to any informative responses, greatly appreciated

Rick

[warriorfan707]

when its +EV

[Bill Dozer]

I've recently made the mistake of hedging a bet at halftime, which in the end, the original bet turned out to be the winner. Example yesterday I was having an absolute atrocious day gambling. Went against my better judgement on some plays and it wound up costing me. Being that I was already down for the day and to further protect against any more losses, since it looks like it was destined to be "one of those days", I decided to hedge my bet. I hedged the bet on a total at half time despite the fact that it was on pace to cover, mainly because that bet was a 5 unit play and I was already in the hole 5.5 units.

In that situation was I right to hedge it and basically eat the vig? Do you let it ride? Do you rarely ever hedge your bets unless your almost certain its going to lose? Do you hedge when you're having a bad day, like I did, to stop the bleeding?

Just looking for some opinions and possible insight.

Obviously in hindsight I should of let it ride and would of been close to even for the day which would of been great, all things considering. Unfortunately it's hindsight

Thanks in advance to any informative responses, greatly appreciated

Rick

In that situation was I right to hedge it and basically eat the vig?
That's a personal decision. If you were overextended and needed the money for something then, you got to do what you need to to avoid being in a jam. You essentially paid a big fee to get money...It's like pulling money out of your 401k and paying taxes and fees because you need it. The best advice IMO, albeit possibly obvious and unhelpful, is to avoid getting over extended so you don't have to pay fees to manage your money. It's easier said than done when firing in bets.

When do you hedge your bet?
When you can buy out for cheap. Even pros will buy out of a good futures position if they can get a great price on the competing team. When the 2nd bet is an advantageous play by itself it can make sense.
The easy answer is when it is a game changer. No matter how "-ev" it is, if the amount is high enough people will buy out and you can't blame em. If your savings is 1k and you can hedge a bet and still win 100k, that's life changing. For some they have a responsibility to hedge it. They are essentially risking 100k to win 240k if they don't. Even if they have great + odds they are betting on the quality of life for their family...possibly a better school or safer home. It's like those poor saps on Deal or No Deal... In their bio they say Gramma needs a surgery and their kid wants to go to music school and what does she do? She says no to the $40,000 suitcase because there is good odds she gets the $200k suitcase. Take the $40,000! Fix your gramma!

[boneheaded1]

when I hedge it is because I've got one game left in a parlay that's still alive (at this point you are guaranteed not to lose money).

that's pretty much about it. One time I did hedge a bet I made early as I just wasn't feeling right. But the hedge was for less than the original bet (kind of like a loss mitigator) but in the end it turned out to be a win mitigator as I won the original bet. I still made money but not as much as I could have if I just would have stuck to my guns. I still make bets early regularly but I no longer hedge unless some big news comes out (like an injury).

[SlickRick1382]

In that situation was I right to hedge it and basically eat the vig? That's a personal decision. If you were overextended and needed the money for something then, you got to do what you need to to avoid being in a jam. You essentially paid a big fee to get money...It's like pulling money out of your 401k and paying taxes and fees because you need it. The best advice IMO, albeit possibly obvious and unhelpful, is to avoid getting over extended so you don't have to pay fees to manage your money. It's easier said than done when firing in bets.

To be honest it wasn't a matter of being over extended. I have enough bankroll to cover those losses if I so chose so it wasn't a matter of being over extended. Was more of having such a bad night I figured I may as well cut my losses and call it a night rather than suffer more potential losses. Basically guaranteed myself a $50 loss rather than a potential $550 loss obviously ignoring the fact that I could win the bet, which I wound up doing.

I guess in the end it's not really advantageous to hedge unless in an obvious scenario like you pointed out in the 2nd half of your reply or in a situation of a parlay where all but one hit and I can hedge to make sure I win regardless of the outcome.


As for the other posters, I know that when it's positive EV that it's obvious that hedging is advisable. Was referring more to situations where you decide you had enough for a day and want to just get out of the situation.

I appreciate all the responses

[FourLengthsClear]

You only hedge if the bet you are going to hedge with represents a good bet/value/+EV in its own right.

[Bill Dozer]

To be honest it wasn't a matter of being over extended. I have enough bankroll to cover those losses if I so chose so it wasn't a matter of being over extended. Was more of having such a bad night I figured I may as well cut my losses and call it a night rather than suffer more potential losses. Basically guaranteed myself a $50 loss rather than a potential $550 loss obviously ignoring the fact that I could win the bet, which I wound up doing.

I guess in the end it's not really advantageous to hedge unless in an obvious scenario like you pointed out in the 2nd half of your reply or in a situation of a parlay where all but one hit and I can hedge to make sure I win regardless of the outcome.


As for the other posters, I know that when it's positive EV that it's obvious that hedging is advisable. Was referring more to situations where you decide you had enough for a day and want to just get out of the situation.

I appreciate all the responses

Right, you were feelin out what-would-you-do opinions and not really lookin for a math lesson. Sometimes we can take an emotional beatdown and just want to go to bed. A lot of gamblers stay up watching the last wager in a losing night. It's not fun. You are following a game to see how bad your night will suck. We'll also do the opposite of what you did trying not to go to bed down on the evening and chase losses into the night. Books always have more action on games later in the day. Players who bet that way lose faster.