[Sunde91]

(pseudo) sharps buried

[No coincidences]

The "sharp" play was no play.

[brahmabull117]

The "sharp" play was no play.

Dude alabama was never even in a position to have a chance to cover this during the entire game



WTF are you talking about??? How was LSU not the play here??

[d2bets]

The "sharp" play was no play.

Nope. LSU +6 or ML +200 was extremely sharp.

[P.F.Kasooff]

What can I say ...?

[face]

What can I say ...?

lsu should have been favored, then people would have bet them

[mintpicks79]

I'm pretty sure 65-70% of the bets where on LSU.

[k13]

It's easy to say what's sharp after the game is over.

[P.F.Kasooff]

It's easy to say what's sharp after the game is over.

Dude , check the time stamp on Post #1

LSU + pts is a no brainer even if they lost

[No coincidences]

Dude alabama was never even in a position to have a chance to cover this during the entire game



WTF are you talking about??? How was LSU not the play here??

Alabama dominated up front. They missed four field goals and had a 50/50 interception at the goal line.

When was LSU in a position to score at all other than the two times they did in regulation?

[No coincidences]

Nope. LSU +6 or ML +200 was extremely sharp.

Of course you can say that now.

[brahmabull117]

Alabama dominated up front. They missed four field goals and had a 50/50 interception at the goal line. When was LSU in a position to score at all other than the two times they did in regulation?

you make it sound like those field goals were chip shots...they were all 50 yarders (or close to 50 yarders) and those are very low percentage kicks in college. The goal line INT was a fantastic play by the best defensive secondary in the country. The point was that this game was a coin flip - absolutely no reason to believe that Bama had any real chance to win this game by 6+


it's especially stupid to lay that many points in a defensive minded game because touchdowns are so hard to come by

[suicidekings]

The "sharp" play was no play.

Indeed. I'll eat my loss on the over and be happy I never actually took a side.

[No coincidences]

you make it sound like those field goals were chip shots...they were all 50 yarders (or close to 50 yarders) and those are very low percentage kicks in college. The goal line INT was a fantastic play by the best defensive secondary in the country. The point was that this game was a coin flip - absolutely no reason to believe that Bama had any real chance to win this game by 6+


it's especially stupid to lay that many points in a defensive minded game because touchdowns are so hard to come by

So why didn't you play LSU and the under?

[brahmabull117]

So why didn't you play LSU and the under?

I played LSU but not the under


I thought it would be a 20-17 type game, I'm actually surprised by how little offense there was in this game

[suicidekings]

you make it sound like those field goals were chip shots...they were all 50 yarders (or close to 50 yarders) and those are very low percentage kicks in college. The goal line INT was a fantastic play by the best defensive secondary in the country. The point was that this game was a coin flip - absolutely no reason to believe that Bama had any real chance to win this game by 6+

it's especially stupid to lay that many points in a defensive minded game because touchdowns are so hard to come by

IMO, that was the play of the college season to this point. Amazing.

[k13]

Dude , check the time stamp on Post #1

LSU + pts is a no brainer even if they lost

if you expect 4 fg's missed....

How often does that happen?

[brahmabull117]

if you expect 4 fg's missed.... How often does that happen?

they were 50 yard kicks for god's sake



it's college football, those are extremely low percentage

[No coincidences]

they were 50 yard kicks for god's sake



it's college football, those are extremely low percentage

They were all 50 yarders? Really? Hmmm, don't remember them being that long.

[brahmabull117]

they were all 50 yarders? Really? Hmmm, don't remember them being that long.

49, 44, 50, 52




very low percentage kicks in CFB

[P.F.Kasooff]

Some of you guys dont get it (thats why Bookies clean up in the long run)

What happened in the game is inconsequential to what the smart/sharp bet was before K.O.

[Sunde91]

"sharp" meaning line movementz/anti-public = bama -points was the play


"sharp" meaning the keen/smart play = lsu +points was the play

[No coincidences]

"sharp" meaning line movementz/anti-public = bama -points was the play


"sharp" meaning the keen/smart play = lsu +points was the play

So what was driving the money away from LSU? Big money but not sharp money?

This argument is foolish, given we already know the outcome and it's obvious in retrospect to say LSU was the "sharp" side.

[P.F.Kasooff]

Many people have gone broke trying to interpret 'Line Movement'

[brahmabull117]

So what was driving the money away from LSU? Big money but not sharp money? This argument is foolish, given we already know the outcome and it's obvious in retrospect to say LSU was the "sharp" side.

when are you gonna understand that vegas doesn't control the outcome on the field???



this game was a coin flip, just like every sports expert/announcer/analyst everywhere told you. Neither team had any significant advantage and there was no reason to believe Bama (or either team really) would win by a large margin



Sometimes, when it quacks like a duck, and it walks like a duck...well it's a duck

[convick]

49, 44, 50, 52




very low percentage kicks in CFB

Correct... and one of those was blocked! Probably doesnt go through the uprights anyways.

These kicks weren't PATs for gods sake!

[k13]

they were 50 yard kicks for god's sake



it's college football, those are extremely low percentage

One was 44, other 49 and the other 50.

FG's over 50 yards are 41% this year.

[No coincidences]

when are you gonna understand that vegas doesn't control the outcome on the field???



this game was a coin flip, just like every sports expert/announcer/analyst everywhere told you. Neither team had any significant advantage and there was no reason to believe Bama (or either team really) would win by a large margin



Sometimes, when it quacks like a duck, and it walks like a duck...well it's a duck

Where did I say anything about Vegas controlling the outcome on the field? Something -- or someone -- was driving the Bama line up, and it wasn't the public.

I'll let you trust the ESPN guys and other "sports experts" -- I'm not interested in listening to them before I make a play chief. I know how big you are on reading crap like that beforehand and making a bet.

[brahmabull117]

One was 44, other 49 and the other 50. FG's over 50 yards are 41% this year.

great so let's say Bama kicks that 49 yard fg before overtime - that means they're 3-5 for FGs for the game (60% - a very reasonable percentage considering the length of the kicks)



LSU still covers...they just lose 9-6 in regulation

[brahmabull117]

Something -- or someone -- was driving the Bama line up, and it wasn't the public.

great, do they play the game?? do they coach the players??



no?? then what they do is absolutely irrelevant

[Sunde91]

So what was driving the money away from LSU? Big money but not sharp money? This argument is foolish, given we already know the outcome and it's obvious in retrospect to say LSU was the "sharp" side.

I just said Bama was the "sharp" side meaning line movementz, "sharp" money

Talking value, talking the smart play, it's pretty reasonable to say it was LSU regardless of what hapened

That won't be proven, but safe to assume pseudo sharps would have been all over LSU + if everyone were on Bama and there was "RLM"

[k13]

I like how everything is being based on a sample size of ONE.

[k13]

Sharps don't win every game. I think we can all agree with this.

[brahmabull117]

I like how everything is being based on a sample size of ONE.

that reverse line movement crap has been complete nonsense in college CFB this year



evaluate matchups and determine value, forget everything else. If a line is overpriced or underpriced, then bet on it... Many people have gone broke trying to interpret "line movements"

[k13]

that reverse line movement crap has been complete nonsense in college CFB this year



evaluate matchups and determine value, fck everything else

I'll show you something interesting tomorrow.