[PAULYPOKER]

With the theatrics of the NFL,San-Diego along with Rivers debacle on national TV, this opens the door for an epic upset over the Packers this weekend................

San Diego is more dangerous than their record perceives to be.

Rivers can move the ball at will in between the 20's,so if he can overcome his along with the offensive play calling in the red-zone slump, San Diego will light up the score board...........

San Diego has a monkey on their back which is a great deal of the need to prove that they are a still a contender,what better to way to do this by upsetting the defending still undefeated Superbowl champs....

The bye week has been deemed to be hazardous this year in the NFL for all but the in the slump teams such as Philadelphia.......

There are no recent match-ups between these two teams to get a good read on this aspect of the game..
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The key advantage San Diego has over the Packers in this match-up is in the passing game on both sides of the ball>

Chargers passing attack is ranked 6th while the Packers are ranked 31st defending it....

Chargers are ranked 4th defending the pass while the Packers passing attack is ranked 3rd.....

However you can slowdown Rodgers but you can't stop him completely,with that said I believe San Diego should be able to outscore Green Bay slightly setting up the over to be a good play as well........
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I see this game kind of like the GB@Minn. game, only difference Rivers is a proven QB that should be able to overcome his misfortunes this week....

what is psychologically driving Rivers? Aaron Rodgers.............

Moral to this story is, if you are backing the Pack this weekend tread lightly..........

[EasyPicks]

ohh boy....this one is hard to tail!

GL

[Scorpion]

too many points

[freakydave]

So your reasoning is GB is 31st vs pass & SD has the 6th ranked passing attack while GB's 3rd ranked passing attack will be up against the 6th rank pass defence of SD?

-On the face of it your argument seems resonable but San Deigo's D gives 22.7 pts a game(16th) while GB gives up 20.1(9th)
-GB 2nd in the league in int's SD 10th
--Now let's look at who these defencive numbers were amassed against
min,ne kc den mia jets & kc only NE has an offence that is capable of doing what GB (32.9pts/gm 1st)has already proven they can do.
GB has played NO Car chi den Atl stl min-NO CAR CHI ATL
GB has faced much better offences than SD has & are 7-0
Last you liken this game to GB /min but SD has no running game that compares AP who shredded GB & opened up the Vikings passing game.This game is much closer to NE/SD than it is GB/ MIN & NE tore SD a new you know what.

[DJ Dana]

anything can happen, right? Look at this last weekend as evidence. With that said I still like the Packers at anything less than 7 pts. Despite what some people have posted I never saw the line as low as 3.5 (it was and still is 5.5 at many books).

[k13]

-6 is -12 in Green Bay

What a joke....lol

[loopydude11]

no running game? that's only if their first 2 RBs on the depth chart are out. if tolbert or matthews is in they are more than capable of putting up some nice yardage. i'm staying away from this game, packer backers might get burned this weekend

[freakydave]

RM 7GM 111 CARRIES 509 YDS 4.6/CARRY 3TD'S
AP 7GM 167 CARRIES 798 YDS 4.8/CARRY 9 TDS
AGAIN THESE STATS MUST VIEWED IN CONTEXT WHO HAS SD PLAYED ne & a bunch of offencively challenged teams.

[lemart5]

The over is the play

[PAULYPOKER]

RM 7GM 111 CARRIES 509 YDS 4.6/CARRY 3TD'S AP 7GM 167 CARRIES 798 YDS 4.8/CARRY 9 TDS AGAIN THESE STATS MUST VIEWED IN CONTEXT WHO HAS SD PLAYED ne & a bunch of offencively challenged teams.

I can clearly see that you are a diehard Pack fan which makes you bias,never wise to wager on heart,my advise to you is stay away from wagering this game altogether..........

[GunShard]

Norv Tuner is one of the most dumbest head coaches in the league.

[bfour]

Don't forget that GB has been way ahead in most games and the opponent throws more than normal. That inflates the pass yards allowed stat.

So your reasoning is GB is 31st vs pass & SD has the 6th ranked passing attack while GB's 3rd ranked passing attack will be up against the 6th rank pass defence of SD?

-On the face of it your argument seems resonable but San Deigo's D gives 22.7 pts a game(16th) while GB gives up 20.1(9th)
-GB 2nd in the league in int's SD 10th
--Now let's look at who these defencive numbers were amassed against
min,ne kc den mia jets & kc only NE has an offence that is capable of doing what GB (32.9pts/gm 1st)has already proven they can do.
GB has played NO Car chi den Atl stl min-NO CAR CHI ATL
GB has faced much better offences than SD has & are 7-0
Last you liken this game to GB /min but SD has no running game that compares AP who shredded GB & opened up the Vikings passing game.This game is much closer to NE/SD than it is GB/ MIN & NE tore SD a new you know what.

[mlb]

Think sd covers

[EasyPicks]

Pauly likes to pick the hard games

[southpaw74]

Don't forget that GB has been way ahead in most games and the opponent throws more than normal. That inflates the pass yards allowed stat.

[jjgold]

Lets say I am no taking Green Bay

Would anyone be surprised if SD wins??

[PackerBacker]

In a shocking move, I'm backing the packers!

[Trampas]

Packers are just going to try and outscore the others as priority 1 over stopping the others from scoring

[Tech N9ne]

If the public pounds GB I'm pounding SD

[Mr Handicapable]

This one is too tough imo. GB is coming off a bye week so they could be out of synch in the 1st half like the Atlanta game. SD is at home vs. the world champs so their stadium will be going crazy....SD 1st half might be a nice play? Rodgers obv protects the ball better and they're better in the red zone but they didn't cover vs a rookie (Ponder) so I don't like their chances to put away SD and Rivers.

[zoso11871]

I'm on SD + points.

[Mr Handicapable]

I'm on SD + points.

I wouldn't be too fired up with SD either because +5.5 is basically like getting 4 and not much value imo.

[MC PICKS]

Im all over the chargers early at +6. Worst thing for a team that is on a roll is to have a bye week, green bays momentum has been halted by the NFL scedule, dont be shocked if they lose outright.

[freakydave]

I can clearly see that you are a diehard Pack fan which makes you bias,never wise to wager on heart,my advise to you is stay away from wagering this game altogether..........

Call me biased all you want- what reason is there to take SD I read your rationale & it's a load of bunk.For the record I don't object to you taking 7pts it was in your other thread where you declare SD wins outright based on the Packs defencive pass ranking & SD passing attack???While SD leads the league in interceptions thrown & GB's secondary is 2nd in INT's.
-GB is an offensive machine SD is inconsistent
-GB is one of the best ATS SD is one of the worst ATS
Last the way you structured your bet is silly if GB wins & does not cover your still down the juice.

[Lock Of The Aeon]

The number is a bit public inflated. I think there's value on San Diego. San Diego isn't Minnesota, they're much better. It could come down to a field goal or Green Bay could get backdoored or just lose.

If you are backing the Pack this weekend, you must be on drugs!

[billysink]

A couple of key points for this matchup.

Green Bay has been out gained in total yards in 4 of their 7 games this year. Included in that stat are St. Louis, Minnesota, Carolina and New Orleans. Needless to say they have won all of these games. In the last 2 games it was rushing yards against that was the real culprit. St. Louis and Minnesota had obscene yards per rush stats in those games. 4.9, and 7.0 respectively. The moral of the story here is that we can go back and forth about the Packer's pass defense all day but that is not the key. As mentioned earlier by poster bfour those stats are skewed by teams having to ditch their game plan to catch up. The moral of this story is that Green Bay is not real good against the run and if teams are not forced to abandon it they stand a good chance of covering a spread.

Now if you buy into that approach here is something to keep in mind. Ryan Matthews is questionable at this point after a pulled groin on Monday. He left the game and did not return. His backup Curtis Brinkley came in and did a real nice job with almost 5 yards per carry. Unfortunately he suffered a concussion and is questionable. Bruising runner Mike Tolbert did not play on Monday with a bad hamstring.

I do not know how you can make a case for San Diego at this point not knowing who will be able to run the ball.

Another thing to note here for Green Bay and of real importance in handicapping this game is that LT Chad Clifton will probably miss this game. He has missed the last two. St. Louis was not able to expose Marshall Newhouse but Minny was to some extent. The real reason I am bringing this up is that this will be Green Bay's first game against a 3/4 defensive package without Clifton and the first this year. This scheme is much more apt to expose a blind side weakness as the rush packages are disguised. Let's see if the Chargers can capitalize on this. Of note last years Packer games against true 3/4 opponents the Jets, Skins and Miami were their lowest scoring games of the year. That is extremely worthy of note when approaching this game.

You may counter that injuries to NT Luis Castillo, LB's Shaun Phillips and Larry English would dilute this angle and they are worthy of note. I have always said it is the scheme, not the players with a 3/4 look and the backups at these positions have performed fairly well so far albeit against teams with not near the offensive ability of Green Bay.

San Diego is a good team, statistically better than their record and in many ways equal or better than Green Bay. They always seem to shoot themselves in the foot. Where in the heck do you find an All-Pro tackle like Marcus MacNeill who commits 6 penalties as he did on Monday. Or a QB handling a snap like he is helping give birth to a baby elephant. You can't handicap that shit.

Moral of this long winded read is that if you think San Diego can establish the run, if you think the 3/4 set with the absence of Clifton can slow down Green Bay and if you think the Chargers can somehow find focus; then you have a play.

If you don't take stalk in any of the above, then you may be considering Green Bay.


Good Luck with whatever you chose lads.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Norv Tuner is one of the most dumbest head coaches in the league.

agree although with grammar like that you shouldn't be calling anyone dumb

[freakydave]

A couple of key points for this matchup. Green Bay has been out gained in total yards in 4 of their 7 games this year. Included in that stat are St. Louis, Minnesota, Carolina and New Orleans. Needless to say they have won all of these games. In the last 2 games it was rushing yards against that was the real culprit. St. Louis and Minnesota had obscene yards per rush stats in those games. 4.9, and 7.0 respectively. The moral of the story here is that we can go back and forth about the Packer's pass defense all day but that is not the key. As mentioned earlier by poster bfour those stats are skewed by teams having to ditch their game plan to catch up. The moral of this story is that Green Bay is not real good against the run and if teams are not forced to abandon it they stand a good chance of covering a spread. Now if you buy into that approach here is something to keep in mind. Ryan Matthews is questionable at this point after a pulled groin on Monday. He left the game and did not return. His backup Curtis Brinkley came in and did a real nice job with almost 5 yards per carry. Unfortunately he suffered a concussion and is questionable. Bruising runner Mike Tolbert did not play on Monday with a bad hamstring. I do not know how you can make a case for San Diego at this point not knowing who will be able to run the ball. Another thing to note here for Green Bay and of real importance in handicapping this game is that LT Chad Clifton will probably miss this game. He has missed the last two. St. Louis was not able to expose Marshall Newhouse but Minny was to some extent. The real reason I am bringing this up is that this will be Green Bay's first game against a 3/4 defensive package without Clifton and the first this year. This scheme is much more apt to expose a blind side weakness as the rush packages are disguised. Let's see if the Chargers can capitalize on this. Of note last years Packer games against true 3/4 opponents the Jets, Skins and Miami were their lowest scoring games of the year. That is extremely worthy of note when approaching this game. You may counter that injuries to NT Luis Castillo, LB's Shaun Phillips and Larry English would dilute this angle and they are worthy of note. I have always said it is the scheme, not the players with a 3/4 look and the backups at these positions have performed fairly well so far albeit against teams with not near the offensive ability of Green Bay. San Diego is a good team, statistically better than their record and in many ways equal or better than Green Bay. They always seem to shoot themselves in the foot. Where in the heck do you find an All-Pro tackle like Marcus MacNeill who commits 6 penalties as he did on Monday. Or a QB handling a snap like he is helping give birth to a baby elephant. You can't handicap that shit. Moral of this long winded read is that if you think San Diego can establish the run, if you think the 3/4 set with the absence of Clifton can slow down Green Bay and if you think the Chargers can somehow find focus; then you have a play. If you don't take stalk in any of the above, then you may be considering Green Bay. Good Luck with whatever you chose lads.

You don't seem to be taking a side?
This is a well thought out post.
A couple of points GB's offence is better than last year(more weapons) to attack the 3/4.
GB's run defence is ranked 10th & their struggles with the run vs MInny & Carolina & STL (those first 2 teams are in the top 10 rushing in the NFL) can be attributed to the fact that they are good running teams SD is ranked 17th big difference & take into acct SD RB injuries-I don't see SD limiting GB's possesions with a ball control offence.
To me SD's chances rest on Rivers he isn't playing well & absent a good reason to think he'll turn it around I'll take the Pack.

[billysink]

You don't seem to be taking a side?
This is a well thought out post.
A couple of points GB's offence is better than last year(more weapons) to attack the 3/4.
GB's run defence is ranked 10th & their struggles with the run vs MInny & Carolina & STL (those first 2 teams are in the top 10 rushing in the NFL) can be attributed to the fact that they are good running teams SD is ranked 17th big difference & take into acct SD RB injuries-I don't see SD limiting GB's possesions with a ball control offence.
To me SD's chances rest on Rivers he isn't playing well & absent a good reason to think he'll turn it around I'll take the Pack.

No I have no inclination to take a side at this point. I don't see any need to rush into this as the line is a bit insignificant at 5.5. A Line that far off key bears no sense of urgency.

While the Chargers rank 17 in rush yard per game their average per rush sit right at 4. If they so choose they can certainly game plan around ball control. Why wouldn't they. Green Bay is week against it. Yards per carry stats bear that out. Again the rank of 10th given to their rush defense is based on total yards and is skewed. Teams have to throw the ball to catch up. The injuries are the kicker here. I just don't know if the Chargers have the personnel.

I can't agree or disagree with your stance that they can better attack a 3/4 this year. They have not had a chance to prove me right or you wrong. I don't see much difference in their plan of attack or scheme on offense so we will see.

Thanks for the points Dave and good luck this weekend!!

[freakydave]

No I have no inclination to take a side at this point. I don't see any need to rush into this as the line is a bit insignificant at 5.5. A Line that far off key bears no sense of urgency. While the Chargers rank 17 in rush yard per game their average per rush sit right at 4. If they so choose they can certainly game plan around ball control. Why wouldn't they. Green Bay is week against it. Yards per carry stats bear that out. Again the rank of 10th given to their rush defense is based on total yards and is skewed. Teams have to throw the ball to catch up. The injuries are the kicker here. I just don't know if the Chargers have the personnel. I can't agree or disagree with your stance that they can better attack a 3/4 this year. They have not had a chance to prove me right or you wrong. I don't see much difference in their plan of attack or scheme on offense so we will see. Thanks for the points Dave and good luck this weekend!!

Why do you keep saying they are weak vs the run the teams in your previous post are very good at running the ball.SD is no Minny or Carolina rushing & they are banged up.To me it's much more likely that Starks & Grant will pad their stats vs the 17th rush defence of SD than the other way around.
Billy-the fact that SD has been playing from behind most games meaning more opposing rush attempts/gm means their defencive ranking is also inflated?
BOL to you too with whoever you back this weekend

[caseyman011]

I've rode the Green Bay gravy train all season, but I'm actually leaning toward SD in this matchup, as well. I'm kind of surprised it's not at GB-6/-6.5 since SD just lost a tough one in KC, but I guess the oddsmakers saw what I saw out of that game: the Chargers could have easily won by 21+ had they converted all those FG/flubbed opportunities inside the 35 into TDs. I don't see them stalling around the redzone like they did against KC. If GB watches the MNF tape, though, Antonio Gates is gonna get shut down hard. He was double-teamed inside the redzone the entire game, and it worked (save for that phantom offensive PI call).

[Hoja Verdes]

This will be the public teaser gangbang of the weekend. Plenty of people will be thinking "tease every other play with GB, its like a free 6 pts on every game!!!11!1!!!!111!!!!lolzersomfgrofl"

[billysink]

Why do you keep saying they are weak vs the run the teams in your previous post are very good at running the ball.SD is no Minny or Carolina rushing & they are banged up.To me it's much more likely that Starks & Grant will pad their stats vs the 17th rush defence of SD than the other way around.
BOL to you too with whoever you back this weekend

I have to approach this game from a "game plan" perspective. From what I have seen of these teams the only way to beat Green Bay is to run the football and keep their offense off the field. If Green Bay has a weakness it is against the run. Yards per carry bear that out. C'Mon Dave even shitty assed Denver beat them up on the ground. Willis McGahee of all people ran for an average of 6.9 a carry. McGahee torched the Chargers too so that says something about them as well. I am hoping he shows up this week in Oakland. They can't stop the run either and are laying too many points.

San Diego may not have the weapons to establish the run. Nor is it a given that Norvandrethal can concoct a game plan to take advantage. If it is Rodgers against Rivers it is a tossup. Only because it is a home game for the Chargers. On a neutral field it is Rodgers all day long.

Green Bay has never shown anything that comes close to padding their run stats, running the ball against a 3/4 package. That is not likely to change here.

Interesting matchup. Again with that dead number there is no real reason to get too excited either way until we have all the information at hand.

[rubecube]

Does anyone else worry about San Diego coming off the short week?

[freakydave]

I have to approach this game from a "game plan" perspective. From what I have seen of these teams the only way to beat Green Bay is to run the football and keep their offense off the field. If Green Bay has a weakness it is against the run. Yards per carry bear that out. C'Mon Dave even shitty assed Denver beat them up on the ground. Willis McGahee of all people ran for an average of 6.9 a carry. McGahee torched the Chargers too so that say something about them as well. San Diego may not have the weapons to establish the run. Nor is it a given that Norvandrethal can concoct a game plan to take advantage. If it is Rodgers against Rivers it is a tossup. Only because it is a home game for the Chargers. On a neutral field it is Rodgers all day long. Green Bay has never shown anything that comes close to padding their run stats, running the ball against a 3/4 package. That is not likely to change here. Interesting matchup. Again with that dead number there is no real reason to get too excited either way until we have all the information at hand.

Fair enough thanks for the clarification BOL this week