1. 10-20-11 11:45 PM #36
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigDofBA View Post
    It's not like Texas dominated either. Out of the 18 inning played this World Series, Texas has led for .5 of an inning. It took a bloop base hit and some sacrifice fly balls to finally do it.

    I don't see how anyone that has Texas in this series can feel really good about it. We'll see.

    If the Cards can just win one game in Texas, which I think they will, I think they have a decent shot at winning two at home. Pujols will step up.

    The reason i feel good about texas is exactly what you stated. they haven't lead for anytime hardly and still won 1 game. they will prob win one in texas but the rangers wont come to st louis up 3-2 and lose both games.

    anyways good luck to your cards bigdofba. you are a good guy and have class unlike so many guys here.
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  2. 10-20-11 11:45 PM #37
    paco
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    no. he doesnt bet bases pal and his clients are americans- not eligible at the greek glad i got +120 though
    U didnt hear? the 68% win rate made him international.
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  3. 10-20-11 11:47 PM #38
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by paco View Post
    U didnt hear? the 68% win rate made him international.

    he prob thinks you can buy runs for rls. he has texas -.25 in game 3.
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  4. 10-20-11 11:50 PM #39
    t-wizzle
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    Quote Originally Posted by paco View Post
    U didnt hear? the 68% win rate made him international.
    Pac you know i called him out for a fake record? He claimed to go something like 20-4 or something and i called bullshit. I went back and showed all the posted plays and he just ignored me.

    Ask Dexter. He knows all about it.
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  5. 10-20-11 11:58 PM #40
    BigDofBA
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    The reason i feel good about texas is exactly what you stated. they haven't lead for anytime hardly and still won 1 game. they will prob win one in texas but the rangers wont come to st louis up 3-2 and lose both games.

    anyways good luck to your cards bigdofba. you are a good guy and have class unlike so many guys here.
    Ty.

    Before the series I said that I thought Texas would win. While I still think it's going to be tough for the Cards to win, I feel a little better about their chances.

    It's basically a best of 5 and the Cards have homefield.

    After watching Franklin blow so many saves earlier in the year, I'm thrilled to be in this position. The better team will win. If my Cardinals truly are champions, they should be able to overcome this. If not, I'll just give Texas props for being better. I won't make execuses.

    I have given a few people shit after the Cards made it to the World Series because I was tired of hearing how bad they sucked before the playoffs. My smack talk was in good fun though.

    This team doesn't suck. They finished about 20 games over .500 despite injuries and a ton of blown saves. Now they are healthy.

    I'm not mad at Motte either he gave up a bloopers and a hit. It happens. He got us here.
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  6. 10-21-11 02:17 AM #41
    hawley
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post


    he prob thinks you can buy runs for rls. he has texas -.25 in game 3.
    this is fukkn classic.
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  7. 10-21-11 02:41 AM #42
    chrisharvard01
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    So majority says, lay the chalk with TEX gm 3?
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  8. 10-21-11 02:43 AM #43
    priskilla22
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    Why are people always so square towards the overs in baseball???

    Everyone saw terrible offense in game 1 and saw the 8 posted for game 2 and scream over over over, but fail to consider the same weather for game 2 as game 1.

    At least some better weather for game 3, but this game is still going under.
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  9. 10-21-11 02:59 AM #44
    dontbuythehook
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post

    anyways good luck to your cards bigdofba. you are a good guy and have class unlike so many guys here.
    Yeah guys. It's totally classy to post play after play throughout a two-week period, lose most of them, then when you win one you continue to post on as if nothing happened at all.

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  10. 10-21-11 07:10 AM #45
    Love The Action
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    You still banking on the cards to win the series ? I got texas rl +120 it is now +110 at the greek ( one of the sharper books). Im sure not too many joes are betting right now. I dont have the -1 option. No the books dont welcome my money thats why they are dropping the line. if they did welcome it they would leave the line the way it is or even better open up +130 or more.

    Thanks pal
    I never banked on the cards to win the series. I leaned to the cardinals, but did not take them or the rangers in a series wager. As I said in dexters thread, there was value in the cards price but the cards would need to sweep them at home to ensure the series returns to st.lou. They blew it last night, so this series will be tougher for the cards to win.

    Based on your spreadsheet, I thought you play at pinny. Pinny absolutely has -1RL wagers. Regardless, you can make your own -1RL wager by splitting your stake between the ML and -1.5 RL. If the ML wager wins but the -1.5 RL loses, then you split and push.

    For example, you take texas -170 for $100 and the -1.5 RL +120 for $100, and risk $270 to win $220. If texas wins by one run, you push instead of lose. In the regular season, 29% of all games end in a one run differential. I think that goes up beyond 33% in the playoffs. This makes the -1.5 RL unprofitable over enough wagers, especially in the playoffs.

    In addition, the -1.5 RL market is very inefficient and it's easy to move the price. Therefore, you cant be sure that the drop in price from +120 to +110 is sharp money. That could have been from any joe schmoe texas fan getting on the rangers early.

    If you beat the closing number, then it was a good bet, but I wouldn't judge it just yet because it could still move back up pretty easy with just one bet the other way.

    You may want to contemplate throwing a unit or two on the ML to cover yiurself in this situation.

    Personally, I am leaning -1 RL on the rangers myself, but have not capped the game or put it through my model yet so i cant say for sure. However, the DH really helps texas, so a game 3 wager on texas makes sense.

    Good luck in whatever you choose
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  11. 10-21-11 07:24 AM #46
    stogies
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    Quote Originally Posted by paco View Post
    Rangers ALL IN.
    Evn though they have that fat fukk Napoli that you think is a chump and should not be able to hit home runs off MLB pitchers? how much is all in for you paco?

    It is funny listening to the experts now who was talking about how this was going to be a World Series with a ton of scoring. Alot of people thought Garcia was going to get bombed last night. If Pujols did not make that error than maybe Texas only scores 1 run or may be none last night

    I do not trust Jackson enough to bet Cards but Holland is not to hot right now either. May be the over is the best bet for game three.
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  12. 10-21-11 11:23 AM #47
    Adm. Cowpollock
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    I got StL at +177 for Game 3 at 5d, but that's with Harrison and Lohse listed. Won't be surprised if LaRussa trots Jackson, not Lohse, out into the Texas night.
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  13. 10-21-11 11:24 AM #48
    DDT
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    Rangers take game 3...book it
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  14. 10-21-11 11:29 AM #49
    pavyracer
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    Wait for line movement lakerboy. You have been 0-10 on your last 10 bets where you beat the line movement.
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  15. 10-21-11 11:35 AM #50
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Wait for line movement lakerboy. You have been 0-10 on your last 10 bets where you beat the line movement.

    you are truly a dummy. i made 3 bets on the rangers last night on the ml -107/-107/-109.

    it closed at -113.
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  16. 10-21-11 11:46 AM #51
    deadstare
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    in on texas ML
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  17. 10-21-11 01:19 PM #52
    SportBettingSpot
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    http://sportsbettingspot.com/mlb-bas...res-in-Game-2/
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  18. 10-21-11 01:23 PM #53
    dfberger23
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    I am pretty surprised by this line. Probably going to be a no play for me.
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  19. 10-21-11 01:32 PM #54
    onetrickpony
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    another toss up game

    lohse has only seen 3 guys from the rangers and owns them

    harrison has only seen berkman once

    and the cards are +162
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  20. 10-21-11 02:12 PM #55
    cadillac pete
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    Your asking for trouble if you think Kyle Lohse is going to shut down the Texas offense in their own park.
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  21. 10-21-11 02:14 PM #56
    wyldbill
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    http://bitsandpieces.us/2011/10/21/m...omment-page-1/

    Sometimes the stupidest bets turn out to be the best ones...
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  22. 10-21-11 02:46 PM #57
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by cadillac pete View Post
    Your asking for trouble if you think Kyle Lohse is going to shut down the Texas offense in their own park.
    That's why I took tex rl +120. I think it cashes.
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  23. 10-21-11 02:49 PM #58
    lunchbawks
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    Quote Originally Posted by cadillac pete View Post
    Your asking for trouble if you think Kyle Lohse is going to shut down the Texas offense in their own park.
    Rangers have done nothing offensively against starting pitchers lately.

    NOTHING

    My boy Lohse will get it done

    Cards FF +0.5 is the play
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  24. 10-21-11 06:57 PM #59
    JR007
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    Good luck with this play
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  25. 10-21-11 09:14 PM #60
    Avenger
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    Quote Originally Posted by onetrickpony View Post
    another toss up game lohse has only seen 3 guys from the rangers and owns them harrison has only seen berkman once and the cards are +162


    Yep, but I can't believe the value on the Cards.

    I got the Rangers for the series at +110. I put a penny on it (which is a big bet for me).

    I'm probably going to play Cards for the next 3 games for $20, especially if the line is as outrageous as tomorrow's game. I doubt Rangers win next 3 in a row.

    Guaranteed Money!
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  26. 10-21-11 09:18 PM #61
    Avenger
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    Quote Originally Posted by lunchbawks View Post
    Rangers have done nothing offensively against starting pitchers lately. NOTHING My boy Lohse will get it done Cards FF +0.5 is the play
    The better question is, what kind of pitcher is Lohse? I should look it up, but I'm too lazy, and I'm playing my guaranteed $ angle.

    If Lohse is a fly-ball pitcher, that's bad news. Harrison sucks, but he's a good ground ball pitcher. That's important for the next three games.

    Actually, if anyone does a detail writeup, with stats for all the Card's pitcher and the bullpen, I'll give them 2 pts. But looking at the lines, I'm guessing bookmakers already know this and are expecting Rangers to roll and win at least 2 of the next 3 games.
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  27. 10-22-11 03:50 PM #62
    ParlayJunkie
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    Rangers RL for me.
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  28. 10-22-11 07:01 PM #63
    DigBick86
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    Im pretty sure texas wins but RL in the postseason and hometeam is tooo scary took -1 at pinny -130.
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  29. 10-22-11 07:09 PM #64
    anthonyc023
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    craig baby here we go
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