1. 10-09-11 04:49 PM #1
    Romanov
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    Should I Hedge Out of My Survivor Pool Next Week?

    The pot is $5480. I have 1 $20 entry. There are only 25-30 people left, even fewer if the packers lose tonight.

    At what point do I start to hedge? That is like a 274-1 bet. How should I hedge?

    Should I bet on the popular teams I am not on next week, and against the team I am on?

    This is all probably too soon but since the field is only about 10% of what it started at, I'm starting to get antsy.
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  2. 10-09-11 04:53 PM #2
    Iwinyourmoney
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    Way to soon to consider a hedge. When down to just a hand full think about it
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  3. 10-09-11 05:03 PM #3
    seaborneq
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    Too many people left, a pool I am in the giants were taken by 61% of the remaining entries. A couple of more weeks like that and you should win without a hedge.
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  4. 10-11-11 04:53 PM #4
    hornsrgrt
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    Quote Originally Posted by seaborneq View Post
    Too many people left, a pool I am in the giants were taken by 61% of the remaining entries. A couple of more weeks like that and you should win without a hedge.
    which pool?
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  5. 10-11-11 04:54 PM #5
    VegasInsider
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    Who have you used so far?
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  6. 10-11-11 04:55 PM #6
    BettingWizard
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    too early
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  7. 10-11-11 05:08 PM #7
    Romanov
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    Quote Originally Posted by VegasInsider View Post
    Who have you used so far?
    Houston, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Tampa Bay and Detroit

    I'm going to go with the Packers this weekend (probably). The only other team I would consider would be the bengals


    On hedging:

    I am thinking about putting $200 on each of the popular ML's besides the my team so if the other popular teams (my competitors) lose, I gain EV, and if they win I earn money.

    Thoughts?
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  8. 10-20-11 09:06 AM #8
    seaborneq
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    Are you still in the pool?
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  9. 10-20-11 09:09 AM #9
    Regul8er
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    Mine has a pot of $170,500 (1,705 entrants at $100 a pop).

    We are down to 224.....and I am still alive and kicking. Seaborneq...I hear you on the Giants a few weeks ago.....66% of the entrants has them in my pool.

    I have taken Houston, NY Jets, San Diego, Tampa Bay, New England and Green Bay.
    I don't want to get too cute this weekend, and will probably just take New Orleans (lookin ahead there schedule is pretty tough, not many spots I will be comfortable taking them). I was thinking about getting cute with Oakland or Cleveland....but in these pools just survive, and worry about 50/50 or 60/40 games down the road.
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  10. 10-20-11 09:25 AM #10
    darrell74
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    Stressing already?

    Gotta be prepared to take this thing into mid December.
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  11. 10-20-11 09:32 AM #11
    Regul8er
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    It appears Romanov is stressing a bit, but I'm pretty cool. I've done a lot of work with my preparation, and feel I'm in in pretty good shape.

    I was planning on taking Oakland either Week 6 vs Cleveland, Week 7 vs KC or Week 9 vs Denver (all at home). With Campbell getting hurt, I'm not prepared to lean on a QB who hasn't played an NFL game all year, or doesnt know the playbook. With San Francisco and Cincinnati showing me some things, I should be able to replace Oakland with one of these teams in a good spot down the line.
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  12. 10-20-11 02:24 PM #12
    seaborneq
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    Quote Originally Posted by hornsrgrt View Post
    which pool?
    Real time sports. King of the mountain.
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  13. 10-20-11 02:54 PM #13
    EmpireMaker
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    much too soon
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