1. #36
    k13
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    Niners line vs Eagles was +7, now it's +14, WTF

  2. #37
    HOOKEMcnh
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    How many points will you give me for agreeing??

  3. #38
    Educ8d Degener8
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    Quote Originally Posted by davidx191 View Post
    The Bengals also comprise of a lot of former 9ers who will no doubt be playing with a chip on their shoulders. Benson is out but the offensive line is the thing that makes the running game in Cincy works and Scott is a very talented. Manny Lawson matches up extremely well against the 9ers' only offensive weapon in Vernon Davis.

    Cincy covers this one.
    Benson is playing this weekend.

    I like the Bungles here as well -- a week 1 win at the Dawg Pound, and hung close at Mile High week 2... and now host the 9ers and Alex Smith travelling across the country at home. Have been really impressed with Dalton thus far as well.

  4. #39
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by Allure View Post
    Even if he ends up losing by 4, he will be +ev in the long run, whereas teasers are -ev. Teasers are for those that don't know what value is.


    the bengals had 2 wins all of last year by more than 7 points. That means 14 of their games were either losses or close victories


    early so far this year, they have had a loss and a win by 10 points because of a flukey late touchdown by benson in a very close game against the browns


    the fact is that these 2 teams could play 100 games and you will get a close game about 75-80% of the time. That's the equivalent of hitting about 55-65% ATS. Are you really gonna tell me that you're gonna hit better than 60% ATS betting on 1 side in this game because there's that much of an edge on 1 side??



    this is an extremely sharp line, anybody here who thinks that they have an edge here is an idiot. You can bet on either side of this game and hit about 50% ATS long term or you can tease a couple teams that always play close games and come out big time winners

  5. #40
    zsr
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    Whats the point of this thread? Obivously the bengals are a better team than the 49ers .

  6. #41
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by zsr View Post
    Whats the point of this thread? Obivously the bengals are a better team than the 49ers .


    how so?? U got two 4-6 win teams here, very even matchup with cinci being 3 point favorites based on just home field advantage



    this play is a coin flip. I'm laughing how there's a thread full of guys who think they have a massive edge on vegas in this game

  7. #42
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by zsr View Post
    Whats the point of this thread? Obivously the bengals are a better team than the 49ers .
    Obviously not since Niners would be -4.5 or higher at home.

  8. #43
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Obviously not since Niners would be -4.5 or higher at home.

    if niners would be 5 point favorites at home, they would be 2 point favorites in this game. U understand that homefield advantage is only 3 point difference right?

  9. #44
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by brahmabull117 View Post
    if niners would be 5 point favorites at home, they would be 2 point favorites in this game. U understand that homefield advantage is only 3 point difference right?
    You have trouble adding too?

    Technically this line opened -1 Cincy so on neutral field San Fran would be -2 and at home -5.

  10. #45
    zsr
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    Obviously not since Niners would be -4.5 or higher at home.
    Lol

  11. #46
    billysink
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    The Bengals are extremely limited at wideout, Shipley and likely Jerome Simpson are out. A.J Green is limited but will likely play. This offense may not be in synch of the get go in the home opener. Lots of youth on the Cinci side. I like a first half play on the Niners and will wait for that line

  12. #47
    Dad
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    I have 49ers winning by a FG.


  13. #48
    Bengals28
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    B.Edwards is banged up, crabtree is still hobbling. West Coast traveling east early game.

    To me, Niners are 10 points better but not in this ugly situation.
    You need to stop gambling if you think the 49ers are 10 points better than the Bengals.


  14. #49
    zsr
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bengals28 View Post
    You need to stop gambling if you think the 49ers are 10 points better than the Bengals.
    He was also big on the colts last week

  15. #50
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by zsr View Post
    He was also big on the colts last week


    The only threads I made was about the Steelers/Seahawks and Giants/Rams.

    Colts might have been one of my small plays if I had to pick that game. Like anyone would be BIG on the colts.

  16. #51
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bengals28 View Post
    You need to stop gambling if you think the 49ers are 10 points better than the Bengals.

    Thanks for the unbiased opinion.

  17. #52
    blueghost
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    bengals 27-20

  18. #53
    Cap dat 4ss
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    Quote Originally Posted by brahmabull117 View Post
    why are people here betting a side on this game??? a teaser here for the dog is damn near automatic. 2 shtty teams = close ugly game one way or another
    Brahma, I like you. We seem to bet a lot of the same teams but we bet very different lines. You need some sort of mentor. You bet horrible lines and misuse teasers and it stems from ignorance. Some of your posts make me cringe. You kill value with buying 1/2 pts at the wrong time because you don't know where the value lies. I hope you take this as constructive criticism. If you could learn to implement what I'm talking about and you'd be leaps and bounds ahead of where you are today even picking the same teams. Good luck this weekend.

  19. #54
    brahmabull117
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cap dat 4ss View Post
    Brahma, I like you. We seem to bet a lot of the same teams but we bet very different lines. You need some sort of mentor. You bet horrible lines and misuse teasers and it stems from ignorance. Some of your posts make me cringe. You kill value with buying 1/2 pts at the wrong time because you don't know where the value lies. I hope you take this as constructive criticism. If you could learn to implement what I'm talking about and you'd be leaps and bounds ahead of where you are today even picking the same teams. Good luck this weekend.


    this is not a misuse of a teaser here you dumbass. Nearly every one of Bengals games last year against teams like the 49ers were close. Neither team here has the capacity for a blowout on a very sharp line, teaser here wins the overwhelming majority of the time
    Last edited by brahmabull117; 09-24-11 at 08:10 AM.

  20. #55
    BettingWizard
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    bengals look like the weekly popular pick that inevitably crashes and burns

  21. #56
    zsr
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    Quote Originally Posted by k13 View Post
    The only threads I made was about the Steelers/Seahawks and Giants/Rams. Colts might have been one of my small plays if I had to pick that game. Like anyone would be BIG on the colts.
    You said you were on +3 AND colts ML

    You didnt make a thread about it you posted in someone elses thread. After week 1 where you said you took all winners after the fact

  22. #57
    Serbone
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    I like the Bengals, a rugged AFC team at home vs NFC West team... NFCW = terrible ATS.
    Seattle shut out at Pittsburg, SF only had 200 yds against Seattle. Think.
    Artificial turf, SF plays on slow grass and mud, footing is different a faster game.
    3 hour early game EST.
    Daulton is a solid QB for a rookie, has shown a lot both games.
    Cincy is underrated, new attitude with those two idiots gone (Ocho, TO).
    Last edited by Serbone; 09-24-11 at 11:54 AM.

  23. #58
    Allure
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    I initially liked the Bengals, but man, everyone and their mom is on Cincy, probably just stay away from this one.

    But the public doesn't lose all the time right? Hm.

  24. #59
    AZ*SUN*iBET4FUN
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    I will Agree and take 10 pts if the Bengals win???

  25. #60
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Allure View Post
    I initially liked the Bengals, but man, everyone and their mom is on Cincy, probably just stay away from this one.

    But the public doesn't lose all the time right? Hm.
    There's still more public on the Niners and the typical ESPNer is 73% on the Niners.

    Mind you, the Cincy pick is becoming trendy now.

  26. #61
    AceKingHigh
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    I disagree !

    WINNERR WINNER 10 points?!


    hahha

  27. #62
    k13
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    btw, I've been a Niners fan since 1988.

  28. #63
    k13
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    Game Time. Lot of late steam on the Niners. Maybe I will be giving away those points.

  29. #64
    Glitch
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    looks like youre right. alex smith is playing extra terrible today. he doesnt know the routes.

  30. #65
    k13
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    Looks like a high scoring game like many predicted...

  31. #66
    Glitch
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    i had a strong feeling yesterday that this game would go under and bought out a little bit of my position (at an even lower number) on the under. but i am still over-exposed on the over. sucks. i wish this game was on Bet365 live right now. no idea what the deal is there.

  32. #67
    k13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Glitch View Post
    i had a strong feeling yesterday that this game would go under and bought out a little bit of my position (at an even lower number) on the under. but i am still over-exposed on the over. sucks. i wish this game was on Bet365 live right now. no idea what the deal is there.
    Ugh, you'll need a miracle.

    I talked to bet365, they said it was a traders decision....

  33. #68
    Glitch
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    got some other things looking pretty decent so far but it f*cks my beat the prick also.

    probably going to go 3-1 for the third consecutive week but lose the best bet for the 2nd time outta 3.

  34. #69
    Allure
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    7-3 SF, so basically it's over.

    After all fukks on various forums played CIN, bet was lost already.

  35. #70
    Glitch
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    3 all. smith takes ANOTHER sack on 3rd and goal

    hes just staring down one receiver every play. has no checkdown ability with all those great receivers. i wonder how many times hes been sacked today. hes making the bengals look like the ravens.

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