Originally Posted by
Love The Action
Good topic Brahma...and good thread with solid feedback.
Here's what I would add:
Then why wouldn't you? 90% at -200 is very profitable? Heck, 90% at -300 is profitable.
Awesome post and response. I would also add to read the applicable sections of Conquering Risk.
At the of the day, it really is about setting your own lines and trying to find where the Books are off 1/2 run or more on a total or maybe ten cents on a ML. If you bet those mistakes early enough to beat the line moves, and as a result beat the closer on a regular basis, you will be a long-term successful sports investor. Success cannot be measured by a couple month's worth of results, it's about season-long profit year after year.
Brah, I have to give you your props for your recent streak. However, with faves hitting at unprecedented rate during your streak, you have to admit that coincidence added to your success...at least to some extent. Clearly, if you continued to bet faves at your same rate, the unprecedented rate of faves cashing will eventually drop and so will your bankroll. Just be careful and don't think you are sole person in the world that can continue to hit at such a high rate. I hope you do, but do you really think that is going to happen?
Just be smart with money management and never get too cocky in this game. Variance has a way of humbling even the most confident of us and you need to be prepared for the tough times.
Keep refining and improving your capping techniques and never stop learning. Rich Boy's post offered some solid advice. Whether or not you publicly agree with his advice has little importance, but you should try to take
something out of it and learn in private. Try to be a sponge and learn as much as possible, especially the math involved.
Sounds like you had a great start and really know your stuff. Congrats...just don't stop learning. Good luck.