1. #1
    mathdotcom
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    World Chess Championship starts Oct14

    I like the bet of Over 38.5. But I like it especially for games in which Kramnik is white. Unfortunately, the drawing of colors is done during the opening ceremony.

    I expect fewer agreed draws than their previous tournament games suggest. Very often in tournaments a draw is agreed for strategic reasons (with regards to the standings, and who will play whom next). In a match, this doesn't apply.

    I will be passing on the first game to see what happens with regards to colors and/or openings.

    If it seems they will be playing a certain opening line that is 25 moves of theory, but without much simplification, then the Over is looking very good.

    Also, if one of them falls behind in the match, you can expect that player to start pushing harder and avoiding lines that lead to simplifications and then a draw. So I am hoping for a decisive 1st game, without a line change for games 2-6.

  2. #2
    bettilimbroke999
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    Fading, I'm all in under 38.5 moves

  3. #3
    mathdotcom
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    There are gonna be at least a couple endgame grinds by either of the players.

    Watch out!

  4. #4
    bettilimbroke999
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    I'm just playin, I dont even know where you would find lines for chess other than pinny, which is of course not an option to us US citizens that don't want to jump through 40 hoops every time we bet

  5. #5
    fiveteamer
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    Over 38.5 what?

  6. #6
    daystrom
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    over 38.5 moves.

    I'm very curious to see what Kramnik has in store as black vs 1. e4. His Petroff's Defence took a huge hit in the Dortmund tournament so maybe he goes back to the Berlin Defence.

    I suspect it'll be a lot of Slav, Catalan and some English when Kramnik is white.

  7. #7
    mathdotcom
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    I kinda like Kramnik +0.5 at ~ +105.

    Guy is an incredible match player. I suspect a lot of Petroff, despite Dortmund

  8. #8
    daystrom
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    math, where are seeing Kramnik +0.5 +105? Pinny has it +0.5 -153.

    You're right about Kramnik being a great match player. In his latest interview, he said he's feels physically better now than even before his illness. I'm discounting his and Anand's results in the last tournaments because they're obviously hiding their opening preparation and I wouldn't be surprised if they both played some second rate moves to throw the other guy off.

    The one thing that makes me think it'll be a very cautious first few games and hence over 38.5 moves is that they play only 12 classical games. One bad game and it could mean the match.

  9. #9
    Chi_archie
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    wow a whole new world for betting for me..

    when does checkers start?

  10. #10
    mathdotcom
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    Checkers has been solved

    Played only by 90+ men

  11. #11
    RealSlimShady
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    I think game 1 will be a short, quick game. Neither player wants to start the championship with a loss. I see a very standard, textbook game by both sides and a quick draw.

  12. #12
    mathdotcom
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    Im not so sure, but passing anyways. Won't be a quick draw in the sense that there's still lots of play, but yes, I'm not expecting anyone to try and push for an advantage.

  13. #13
    PunkerPS
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    I agree with the over 38.5 across the board. The time control, though, will be detrimental to this, as it encourages the return of time scrambles which increments had thankfully eliminated. I don't think a 12 game match will see the usual "feeling out" process that we've seen in the past in WC matches.

    FY:I According to Mig, color distribution is Kramnik has white in games 1, 3, 5, 8, 10, 12.

    Best value I thought I saw in the Pinny lines was the +255 12 game tie.

  14. #14
    PunkerPS
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    Quote Originally Posted by PunkerPS View Post
    I agree with the over 38.5 across the board. The time control, though, will be detrimental to this, as it encourages the return of time scrambles which increments had thankfully eliminated. I don't think a 12 game match will see the usual "feeling out" process that we've seen in the past in WC matches.

    FY:I According to Mig, color distribution is Kramnik has white in games 1, 3, 5, 8, 10, 12.

    Best value I thought I saw in the Pinny lines was the +255 12 game tie.
    Shows what I know as game 1 was an incredibly dull 32 move draw. Pinnacle had the line up for many hours after the game ended too (all of the chess lines are down now though).

  15. #15
    mathdotcom
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    I took the match tie at +260 or whatever it was. Also both players to win less than 1.5 games. And for more than 8.5 games to be drawn.

    That was a terrible opening. Kramnik just threw away the advantage of white on like move 8.

  16. #16
    Wheell
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    mathdot: the lines you are quoting are pags11 level. In any event I like Anand in the match. I also took over 8.5 draws before the match began. No actual bets on Anand though.

  17. #17
    mathdotcom
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    pags1?

  18. #18
    daystrom
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    OK, I think my Kramnik -0.5 is toast. He loses 2 games with the white side of the semi-slav???

    Bring in Veselin.

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