I like the bet of Over 38.5. But I like it especially for games in which Kramnik is white. Unfortunately, the drawing of colors is done during the opening ceremony.
I expect fewer agreed draws than their previous tournament games suggest. Very often in tournaments a draw is agreed for strategic reasons (with regards to the standings, and who will play whom next). In a match, this doesn't apply.
I will be passing on the first game to see what happens with regards to colors and/or openings.
If it seems they will be playing a certain opening line that is 25 moves of theory, but without much simplification, then the Over is looking very good.
Also, if one of them falls behind in the match, you can expect that player to start pushing harder and avoiding lines that lead to simplifications and then a draw. So I am hoping for a decisive 1st game, without a line change for games 2-6.