I don't post here much at all. I happened to learn of SJ about two weeks ago, and dropped into his thread to see what all the fuss was about.

I wouldn't say I was a "sharp", though I am a long-term winner at sports betting, and currently have units of $2,000 up to $6,000. I follow a VERY few, and well-proven handicappers, as well as doing some of my own handicapping.

I was ASTOUNDED to see SJ's claims as far as last year's (and this year's) record in the NBA, and assumed he was just another fraud and liar, with which forums like this are simply infested. But the more I read SJ's writeups, the more it became clear to me that he actually DOES have a level of knowledge about the NBA that is really off the charts. Having said that, a lot of people are knowledgeable...but still can't beat the spread, of course. So I wondered if the entire thread was a sham, with SJ posting all these glowing reviews by "other" people singing his praises. But this is an open forum....anyone can post here. If he has made up his record SOMEBODY (to say the least....more likely 100 people) would be screaming "fraud" at the top of their lungs. Yet despite this thread being populated by a lot of posters who are intent on making negative remarks, I have yet to see ONE who has pointed out any lies or misrepresentations about SJ's record.

So finally, I accepted the fact that he was almost certainly legit.

The next question is........is it possible for a guy with no real advantage ATS to go over 60% by dumb luck? The answer is of course YES.....over a limited number of trials. ANYONE can go 60% over 10 picks, and it isn't even that unlikely to go 30-20 out of 50 picks just throwing darts at the daily rotation. But just as the casinos rely entirely on "The Long Run" to GUARANTEE that their house advantage will manifest itself at the exact percentage predicted (say, 5.39% at roullette, or 1.3% or so on the front line of the dice table)...the more plays you put out the higher the odds against coming out in front by pure luck, i.e., with no actual mathmatical edge over the spread.

By the time you get to 400 plays, the odds of going 60% (let alone above that) by pure luck, and with it not being a simple case of you actually HAVING a big edge....are about as close to zero as you can get without it actually BEING zero. If you don't believe me, try flipping a coin 400 times and see if you get heads anywhere NEAR 240 times. You won't. To go 240-160 out of 400 trials with an honest coin borders on the impossible, statistically. And I believe that SJ's results are more like 260-140, or thereabouts.

There can only be two possible conclusions: one...SJ is a fraud and this entire record has been made up. I have already dealt with that possibility above..or two..SJ is legit. 'The one in a million handicapper who can top 60% over the long haul. I decided on the second option, and started betting SJ's picks at EXACTLY the worst time, and am now down over $20,000. I couldn't possibly have timed it worse....I have only had ONE winner and (off the top of my head) 10 losers, including a massive $6,000 loss on the Boston game.

BUT...........here's the thing....since I have already demonstrated, at least to MY satisfaction, that SJ is legit, there is NO reason to quit betting his picks, reduce the unit size, or do ANYTHING other than keep on betting. Out of 400 plays, even with a 60% advanage where you are legitimately winning 60 out of each 100 plays, it is ENTIRELY possible, if not LIKELY that somewhere along the way you will hit a streak of 1-10. It's called "random distribution". It's normal.

So for what it may be worth to you, and from someone who is hundreds of thousands of dollars ahead in his sports betting career and has a VERY solid grasp of the mathmatics and probabilities involved, you should just relax if you are beginning to doubt SJ. Unless his record is somehow a fraud, the odds are 1 in a million that he isn't a long-term winner, who will return to form....and it could happen today for all I know.

I actually WISH he'd do what everyone here seems to think is the cardinal sin......go tout. I'd rather PAY for good plays, and know what time they'll be posted, than sit around wondering if he'll even bother to put up a play....or like last night...just leave everyone hanging. But as unprofessional as that was.....he ISN'T a professional......he gives his plays away.....so you really can't complain. If you were paying and he did that you'd be all over him....but the point is that as a pro, i.e., one who CHARGES for his expertise, he'd be OBLIGED to post professionally...i.e., reliably. I'd much rather pay a few bucks for that certainty, as I do with the other few guys I follow who actually win in the long run. So here's one vote for SJ going pro, charging reasonable fees, and then sticking to a reliable schedule of putting his plays out.

Anyway, keep up the good handicapping SJ. You know enough about statistics to fully realize how irrelevant the last two weeks are in the long term.

All the best,