Originally posted on 12/28/2023:

ATP/WTA United Cup
Mens Singles, RR Stage
Alex De Minaur vs Cameron Norrie
Moneyline: Cameron Norrie, 2.71 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Have the odds of probability here myself way closer then what they are through the books. Whenever that is the case it's always worth a play personally, but its not a sprint and it's a marathon, so some of these will lose. And obviously a contrarian viewpoint is needed to not always take the safe option. That said sometimes favourites are worth getting on. It seems almost too good and easy to back an Aussie on home soil in his first match. But with that said Norrie was here last year and went 3-0 in his group stages. I think they're evenly matched, watched these guys too many times to count, Norrie has the power and the groundstrokes to keep up with De Minaur and overall ceiling wise I have him a touch better. Considering he beat him here last year and Nadal I thought the odds would have been closer, seems not.
I watched the earlier match and don't feel the surface is that different that much to what it was 12 months ago and its a surface Norrie should handle and adjust to quickly.