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Originally posted on 03/28/2023:

I have a hypothetical question for everyone that cares to answer.


Here are two horses last personal splits who are pointing for the Ky. Derby at 1 1/4 miles . Both won their last race about the same way. Ridden out.

I realize that this is a tough question because there are so many things like pace, post position, track condition, etc. that are unknown, but, if you had to choose now, who would everyone bet on at the projected odds and why?


Horse A. 2-1 odds. Longest race is 1 1/16th. Raced 6 times. Mid pack closer.

Personnel splits :24 2/5ths, 24 3/5ths, 24/ 2/5ths, 6 1/5th


Horse B. 12-1 odds. Longest race is 1 3/16ths. Raced 4 times. Speed, position, stalker.

Personnel splits :24 3/5ths, 25 flat, 24 2/5ths, 6 1/5th, 12 flat

well I know who horse B is lol..internal splits very similar and less than a half second favoring A..but the important thing to me is the more favorable running style of B and getting that extra 1/8th of a mile in before the derby..then the odds and it's a no-brainer
for B

agreed

No knock on horse A. Obviously a really nice horse ( Forte). But with horse B (Kingsbarns), The final 1/8th in 12 flat is telling. But just as telling is the amount of maturity, mental focus from the horse , connection that focus brings between horse and rider, and the ability to rate, respond, relax, go, heck anything the rider wants. Oh, and he can run all day long.

Certainly this is not to say he won't have a new obstacle in front of him with his next race at another different track, a very full field and all the noise, hype, hoopla, and crap that Derby day brings.

Kingsbarns professionalism, his smarts for lack of a better word, are waaaay ahead of where they should be at this point in his short career. I am blown away at how smart this horse shows he is. How professional he seems with so little experience. These are things you try and teach a young horse. But to have such a grasp on them after 3 races and actually 2 races at the time is, in my mind, incredible.

As impressive as his race was on Saturday, I was just as impressed with how he handled what went on in the gate prior to the break. The horse next to him crashed into the stall door as the field awaited the break, reared up, and broke through the gate. That would have unnerved 99.99% of any 3rd time starter out there standing right next to the horse that did that. But what did Kingsbarns do? He got excited for about 2-3 seconds. Quickly gathered himself , stood like a pro, and beat the gate when it opened. That is UN- Be- Lievable for any horse with his amount of experience. After seeing that, then a horse run up into his right eye around the clubhouse turn, then him moving forward immediately upon command from Prat, so as to get that eye back and be a 1/2 a length in front, and just as quick as he moved, he came back to himself and Prat and relaxed with a 25 second second quarter.

That is the stuff nice 4 year olds do. Not horses after two starts. It was a pleasure to watch. And as soon as I saw 49 + , that race was OVER. As they say, They could have gone around again.