Horse Racing questions and answers

Originally Posted by JBEX

hey str

as you know kingsbarns win in the tampa allowance race was fairly easy..in some ways isn't that a better or at least not a negative situation vs having a tooth and nail scrap to the finish ? If todd felt he needed a little more out of the that race to move forward he could possibly get it out of him in his works leading up to this race

guess no matter how hard you work them it's not nearly the same as getting the conditioning from a race




.

Q. as you know kingsbarns win in the tampa allowance race was fairly easy..in some ways isn't that a better or at least not a negative situation vs having a tooth and nail scrap to the finish ?

A. I would say yes, it is better than a tight, all out finish. Why? Because it allowed the horse to have a confidence building, education filled race without being drained physically. His first race had to be somewhat mentally and physically draining if for no other reason, because it was the first time he had ever experienced it.
That second race allowed the horse a little more opportunity, IMO, to concentrate on the actual task instead of things like crowd noise through the stretch, full parking lots, a lot of people in the paddock he was only used to seeing empty, etc.

And while a solid workout is worth about 1/2 of a race, again, IMO, he is fit enough to not need all that thrown at him at once. Todd will play catch up with him all the way to the Derby if he runs well Saturday so getting that easier (nothing's easy) race for race two of a four race program should allow him his best opportunity to take on the next challenge which is much better horses, longer distance, new track surface, new surroundings, and a van ride and new stall that he will sleep in.
It's a lot to overcome but the good ones can. I hope he does. It would shape this thing up to be a pretty cool story of you picking this horse so early. As far as I'm concerned, you have already succeeded in your venture. 85-1 on the 3rd or 4th choice in the La. Derby going in, is a real nice job JBEX ! One that should not go unnoticed.

Q. If todd felt he needed a little more out of the that race to move forward he could possibly get it out of him in his works leading up to this race

A. Yes. That is correct. He most likely already did that. My guess is he got Prat's services right after he passed the tough test in the morning, most likely, with flying colors.
You are not going to book one of the best riders in the country on a horse you don't feel pretty good about, out of respect to that top rider as well as your own overall reputation with riders and agents.

Q. guess no matter how hard you work them it's not nearly the same as getting the conditioning from a race


A. Correct. Like I said, my rule of thumb was about 1/2 a race. I can't say for sure that is correct for every horse, but over time, that measure usually worked in most cases for me.

Originally Posted by str

Q. as you know kingsbarns win in the tampa allowance race was fairly easy..in some ways isn't that a better or at least not a negative situation vs having a tooth and nail scrap to the finish ?

A. I would say yes, it is better than a tight, all out finish. Why? Because it allowed the horse to have a confidence building, education filled race without being drained physically. His first race had to be somewhat mentally and physically draining if for no other reason, because it was the first time he had ever experienced it.
That second race allowed the horse a little more opportunity, IMO, to concentrate on the actual task instead of things like crowd noise through the stretch, full parking lots, a lot of people in the paddock he was only used to seeing empty, etc.

And while a solid workout is worth about 1/2 of a race, again, IMO, he is fit enough to not need all that thrown at him at once. Todd will play catch up with him all the way to the Derby if he runs well Saturday so getting that easier (nothing's easy) race for race two of a four race program should allow him his best opportunity to take on the next challenge which is much better horses, longer distance, new track surface, new surroundings, and a van ride and new stall that he will sleep in.
It's a lot to overcome but the good ones can. I hope he does. It would shape this thing up to be a pretty cool story of you picking this horse so early. As far as I'm concerned, you have already succeeded in your venture. 85-1 on the 3rd or 4th choice in the La. Derby going in, is a real nice job JBEX ! One that should not go unnoticed.

Q. If todd felt he needed a little more out of the that race to move forward he could possibly get it out of him in his works leading up to this race

A. Yes. That is correct. He most likely already did that. My guess is he got Prat's services right after he passed the tough test in the morning, most likely, with flying colors.
You are not going to book one of the best riders in the country on a horse you don't feel pretty good about, out of respect to that top rider as well as your own overall reputation with riders and agents.

Q. guess no matter how hard you work them it's not nearly the same as getting the conditioning from a race


A. Correct. Like I said, my rule of thumb was about 1/2 a race. I can't say for sure that is correct for every horse, but over time, that measure usually worked in most cases for me.

that's an interesting perspective on the 2nd race ..so besides the race not taxing him he gets a chance to focus on the business at hand with the distractions and newness behind him

glad that you think he's in a good position to move forward off his last..lots of challenges and adversity in this spot but as you said we'll see if he can handle it


thanks for the compliment and reponse str . on the horse he was 80-1 ml in pool 3 but when I posted sunday afternoon he was 41-1and closed at 32-1.. if he wins here that'll confirm it was a good pick although with a good 2nd (need 2nd for points)he'll probably still go off lower than his future pool odds

Originally Posted by JBEX;31158943[B

]that's an interesting perspective on the 2nd race ..so besides the race not taxing him he gets a chance to focus on the business at hand with the distractions and newness behind him[/B]

glad that you think he's in a good position to move forward off his last..lots of challenges and adversity in this spot but as you said we'll see if he can handle it


thanks for the compliment and reponse str . on the horse he was 80-1 ml in pool 3 but when I posted sunday afternoon he was 41-1and closed at 32-1.. if he wins here that'll confirm it was a good pick although with a good 2nd (need 2nd for points)he'll probably still go off lower than his future pool odds

Yes. It gives the horse a chance to become a little more familiar with a new process while being able to pay more attention to the rider and what the rider is asking the horse to do or not do. That is what helps make the horse more professional and at his best if he can handle that.

Also, I looked at the PP's for the upcoming race. As we speculated, not a lot of speed in the La. Derby at 1 mile and 3/16ths. That puts Kingsbarns about anywhere Prat wants him to be early. Seems he will be forwardly placed and depending on the break he could be very close early and even on the lead if things play that way.
That might bode well if he is capable of beating these as the Derby seems to be light this year on early speed as well. Last year it was insanely fast early. Does not seem it will be that way this year but it's still early.

hey str

let's say KB wins tomorrow..I'm trying to get an idea where the owners would stand with this horse going into the derby..he's lightly raced (derby would be start 4) , very expensive and tremendous pedigree..maybe the fact he won his debut at a mile at gulfstream would add something to it also ..as prestigious and rich as the derby is the value this horse would have when you factor in the things brought up above would be a lot more than you're typical derby winner..purses will be a secondary thing by a lot compared to his potential stallion value ; wouldn't you agree ?

Originally Posted by JBEX

hey str

let's say KB wins tomorrow..I'm trying to get an idea where the owners would stand with this horse going into the derby..he's lightly raced (derby would be start 4) , very expensive and tremendous pedigree..maybe the fact he won his debut at a mile at gulfstream would add something to it also ..as prestigious and rich as the derby is the value this horse would have when you factor in the things brought up above would be a lot more than you're typical derby winner..purses will be a secondary thing by a lot compared to his potential stallion value ; wouldn't you agree ?

Absolutely. The purse money, as large as it is, is a fraction of what the horses stallion value would immediately become.

Winning the Derby is huge. But if you can throw into that title, undefeated winner of the Derby, well, the sky is the limit.

And as great as past winners, now in the breeding shed were, he would be tomorrows, (who the Eagles so brilliantly sang about,)
"There's a new kid in town", a song Bob Dylan said was " one of the best songs ever written".

And for the time being, until the NEXT great Derby winner, Kingsbarns would be THAT horse.

So there is quite a bit riding on today's race IMO.

GL JBEX.

Originally Posted by str

Absolutely. The purse money, as large as it is, is a fraction of what the horses stallion value would immediately become.

Winning the Derby is huge. But if you can throw into that title, undefeated winner of the Derby, well, the sky is the limit.

And as great as past winners, now in the breeding shed were, he would be tomorrows, (who the Eagles so brilliantly sang about,)
"There's a new kid in town", a song Bob Dylan said was " one of the best songs ever written".

And for the time being, until the NEXT great Derby winner, Kingsbarns would be THAT horse.

So there is quite a bit riding on today's race IMO.

GL JBEX.

always liked that song and no idea bob dylan had that opinion of it..high praise coming from him

it'll be interesting how he's bet today..I'm guessing around 3-1 but if he's high single digits I think that's a bad sign (6-1 ml) ..definitely a lot to prove and looking forward to the race


thanks str

did a little follow up on kingsbarns race..figure I'd link it up ..post 33

.https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...l#post31161191

I have a hypothetical question for everyone that cares to answer.


Here are two horses last personal splits who are pointing for the Ky. Derby at 1 1/4 miles . Both won their last race about the same way. Ridden out.

I realize that this is a tough question because there are so many things like pace, post position, track condition, etc. that are unknown, but, if you had to choose now, who would everyone bet on at the projected odds and why?


Horse A. 2-1 odds. Longest race is 1 1/16th. Raced 6 times. Mid pack closer.

Personnel splits :24 2/5ths, 24 3/5ths, 24/ 2/5ths, 6 1/5th


Horse B. 12-1 odds. Longest race is 1 3/16ths. Raced 4 times. Speed, position, stalker.

Personnel splits :24 3/5ths, 25 flat, 24 2/5ths, 6 1/5th, 12 flat

Originally Posted by str

I have a hypothetical question for everyone that cares to answer.


Here are two horses last personal splits who are pointing for the Ky. Derby at 1 1/4 miles . Both won their last race about the same way. Ridden out.

I realize that this is a tough question because there are so many things like pace, post position, track condition, etc. that are unknown, but, if you had to choose now, who would everyone bet on at the projected odds and why?


Horse A. 2-1 odds. Longest race is 1 1/16th. Raced 6 times. Mid pack closer.

Personnel splits :24 2/5ths, 24 3/5ths, 24/ 2/5ths, 6 1/5th


Horse B. 12-1 odds. Longest race is 1 3/16ths. Raced 4 times. Speed, position, stalker.

Personnel splits :24 3/5ths, 25 flat, 24 2/5ths, 6 1/5th, 12 flat

well I know who horse B is lol..internal splits very similar and less than a half second favoring A..but the important thing to me is the more favorable running style of B and getting that extra 1/8th of a mile in before the derby..then the odds and it's a no-brainer
for B

Originally Posted by JBEX

well I know who horse B is lol..internal splits very similar and less than a half second favoring A..but the important thing to me is the more favorable running style of B and getting that extra 1/8th of a mile in before the derby..then the odds and it's a no-brainer
for B

agreed

Originally Posted by str

I have a hypothetical question for everyone that cares to answer.


Here are two horses last personal splits who are pointing for the Ky. Derby at 1 1/4 miles . Both won their last race about the same way. Ridden out.

I realize that this is a tough question because there are so many things like pace, post position, track condition, etc. that are unknown, but, if you had to choose now, who would everyone bet on at the projected odds and why?


Horse A. 2-1 odds. Longest race is 1 1/16th. Raced 6 times. Mid pack closer.

Personnel splits :24 2/5ths, 24 3/5ths, 24/ 2/5ths, 6 1/5th


Horse B. 12-1 odds. Longest race is 1 3/16ths. Raced 4 times. Speed, position, stalker.

Personnel splits :24 3/5ths, 25 flat, 24 2/5ths, 6 1/5th, 12 flat

Originally Posted by JBEX

well I know who horse B is lol..internal splits very similar and less than a half second favoring A..but the important thing to me is the more favorable running style of B and getting that extra 1/8th of a mile in before the derby..then the odds and it's a no-brainer
for B

Originally Posted by Easy-Rider 66

agreed

No knock on horse A. Obviously a really nice horse ( Forte). But with horse B (Kingsbarns), The final 1/8th in 12 flat is telling. But just as telling is the amount of maturity, mental focus from the horse , connection that focus brings between horse and rider, and the ability to rate, respond, relax, go, heck anything the rider wants. Oh, and he can run all day long.

Certainly this is not to say he won't have a new obstacle in front of him with his next race at another different track, a very full field and all the noise, hype, hoopla, and crap that Derby day brings.

Kingsbarns professionalism, his smarts for lack of a better word, are waaaay ahead of where they should be at this point in his short career. I am blown away at how smart this horse shows he is. How professional he seems with so little experience. These are things you try and teach a young horse. But to have such a grasp on them after 3 races and actually 2 races at the time is, in my mind, incredible.

As impressive as his race was on Saturday, I was just as impressed with how he handled what went on in the gate prior to the break. The horse next to him crashed into the stall door as the field awaited the break, reared up, and broke through the gate. That would have unnerved 99.99% of any 3rd time starter out there standing right next to the horse that did that. But what did Kingsbarns do? He got excited for about 2-3 seconds. Quickly gathered himself , stood like a pro, and beat the gate when it opened. That is UN- Be- Lievable for any horse with his amount of experience. After seeing that, then a horse run up into his right eye around the clubhouse turn, then him moving forward immediately upon command from Prat, so as to get that eye back and be a 1/2 a length in front, and just as quick as he moved, he came back to himself and Prat and relaxed with a 25 second second quarter.

That is the stuff nice 4 year olds do. Not horses after two starts. It was a pleasure to watch. And as soon as I saw 49 + , that race was OVER. As they say, They could have gone around again.

JBEX does not Think The King has much of a shot based on the paper readings. But your take STR convinces me otherwise. Lets see what his odds are come KY Derby day. I may throw down some coins on the Kingbarns. thx,

Originally Posted by str

No knock on horse A. Obviously a really nice horse ( Forte). But with horse B (Kingsbarns), The final 1/8th in 12 flat is telling. But just as telling is the amount of maturity, mental focus from the horse , connection that focus brings between horse and rider, and the ability to rate, respond, relax, go, heck anything the rider wants. Oh, and he can run all day long.

Certainly this is not to say he won't have a new obstacle in front of him with his next race at another different track, a very full field and all the noise, hype, hoopla, and crap that Derby day brings.

Kingsbarns professionalism, his smarts for lack of a better word, are waaaay ahead of where they should be at this point in his short career. I am blown away at how smart this horse shows he is. How professional he seems with so little experience. These are things you try and teach a young horse. But to have such a grasp on them after 3 races and actually 2 races at the time is, in my mind, incredible.

As impressive as his race was on Saturday, I was just as impressed with how he handled what went on in the gate prior to the break. The horse next to him crashed into the stall door as the field awaited the break, reared up, and broke through the gate. That would have unnerved 99.99% of any 3rd time starter out there standing right next to the horse that did that. But what did Kingsbarns do? He got excited for about 2-3 seconds. Quickly gathered himself , stood like a pro, and beat the gate when it opened. That is UN- Be- Lievable for any horse with his amount of experience. After seeing that, then a horse run up into his right eye around the clubhouse turn, then him moving forward immediately upon command from Prat, so as to get that eye back and be a 1/2 a length in front, and just as quick as he moved, he came back to himself and Prat and relaxed with a 25 second second quarter.

That is the stuff nice 4 year olds do. Not horses after two starts. It was a pleasure to watch. And as soon as I saw 49 + , that race was OVER. As they say, They could have gone around again.

just goes to show there are other ways to judge a horse than just his pace and speed figures..stuff that you pointed out is certainly beyond what I would notice although I did get the feeling he was very professional and smart..winning first out at a mile at gulfstream might be a sign of that as it's not easy to do beyond the stamina issues.. in a race like the derby there is no better place to have those things going for you


like the observation of how he handled the gate situation for a horse with so little experience.. another sign he's got a good head on him and mature beyond his age and experience


glad to hear your positive take on him ... definitely would be a horse I couldn't play based on past performances but feel the things you mentioned are also important to consider.. he should be fresh off his previous efforts and the rest.. possible he's only scratched the surface of what he's capable of


thanks for the great insight str

Originally Posted by JBEX

just goes to show there are other ways to judge a horse than just his pace and speed figures..stuff that you pointed out is certainly beyond what I would notice although I did get the feeling he was very professional and smart..winning first out at a mile at gulfstream might be a sign of that as it's not easy to do beyond the stamina issues.. in a race like the derby there is no better place to have those things going for you


like the observation of how he handled the gate situation for a horse with so little experience.. another sign he's got a good head on him and mature beyond his age and experience


glad to hear your positive take on him ... definitely would be a horse I couldn't play based on past performances but feel the things you mentioned are also important to consider.. he should be fresh off his previous efforts and the rest.. possible he's only scratched the surface of what he's capable of


thanks for the great insight str

I do understand your view based on the PP's. That makes all the sense in the world. What I am locked on to with this horse are the intangibles. I am heaping high praise for the horses mental ability and how he has connected to Todd's program. It is really something special.
What we do not know about him yet is exactly HOW good he can get. He does need to continue to climb and in a hurry with the Derby next up and right around the corner. Can he do it? For the average horse I would say, probably not. It's just asking too much too quickly.
But for him, it is impossible to say. He has every excuse to lose and gain from the experience. But he has also had that in his first race, a mile MSW, and this last race, which I have talked about.

I guess the excitement for me is that I know that he is a special talent both mentally and physically and can't wait to see more. It might all fall apart, and, more often than not it does. But if he continues forward, look out.
It is going to be very entertaining to watch.
And when the race is over, if anyone asks me "did you see the Derby"? My answer will be no, I was watching Kingsbarns.

Originally Posted by str

I do understand your view based on the PP's. That makes all the sense in the world. What I am locked on to with this horse are the intangibles. I am heaping high praise for the horses mental ability and how he has connected to Todd's program. It is really something special.
What we do not know about him yet is exactly HOW good he can get. He does need to continue to climb and in a hurry with the Derby next up and right around the corner. Can he do it? For the average horse I would say, probably not. It's just asking too much too quickly.
But for him, it is impossible to say. He has every excuse to lose and gain from the experience. But he has also had that in his first race, a mile MSW, and this last race, which I have talked about.

I guess the excitement for me is that I know that he is a special talent both mentally and physically and can't wait to see more. It might all fall apart, and, more often than not it does. But if he continues forward, look out.
It is going to be very entertaining to watch.
And when the race is over, if anyone asks me "did you see the Derby"? My answer will be no, I was watching Kingsbarns.

I think a good effort without winning in this case would be considered a huge positive maybe more-so than for your typical contender..doesn't necessarily have to be in the money but a 4th through 6th with a trouble line or pace compromised would be fine..if he does at least that and comes out OK I think there's a good chance he'll do some damage later in the year..possibly next out in the preakness where he's already won at the distance in last race..not like he's had a hard campaign so maybe he'd be ok to return in 2 weeks..I think (besides the obvious of him winning the Derby) if todd decides to run in the 2nd leg he will be a tough customer


You seem to really like this horse lol..i'd like to see him have a good year beyond the derby also ..I'd say if he can pull it off he's worth $30-40M easy and it'll be a lot more than that if he finishes the year well..considering he's owned by spendthrift farm I think his future is a stallion there..just be a question of what the fee will be based on his performance the rest of the way

should be fun to watch ..thanks str