Originally posted on 06/25/2022:

The biggest reason that a game that “looks too good“ ends up losing is because you are not looking at the appropriate relevant factors to predict the game.

Chances are you’re looking at some other factors likely public ones that swing or exploit emotion but are not predictors of outcomes.

It may also be that you watched previous games and even though what you saw is not predicted the future outcomes it’s still strong enough to sway your emotions and affect how you bet on the next games.

Finally, the market tends to swell and build up and then let down different types of bettors, this happens to everyone.

Stop betting teams and start estimating and betting value. This is the answer to this age old problem for bettors.