Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=29590343'>posted</a> on 07/25/2020:
Can it be exploited?
Basically 8.6 to 8.7 percent of MLB games go to extra innings. That's at least a game a day. It's also pretty consistent.
With so many 1 run games as well, about 28%, the spots of close games to hit the overs will need to be tight.
But it could be done.
There's a home road split that could help. Road victories end with a 1 run margin less than 1/4 of the time while the home games have closer to 1/3 of them decided that way. It still might matter this season with travel.
A capper needs to fold his own perceived edge to get further.