Originally posted on 11/16/2019:
Thanks - I’m pulling for you to have a good Sunday tomorrow to outweigh the tough start to the week on TNF.
2017 was a special time to bet against USC. When you dug in a little bit the cracks were starting to show, but they hadn’t yet reached the surface of the betting market’s collective consciousness. That gave us value in fading them early and often, turning the Trojans into a “meal ticket” as Dave would’ve put it.
Fast forward a couple years and USC’s worts are out there for everyone to see. With Clay Helton serving as a lame duck and offense having started three QBs this season, the Trojans are a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde act and their institutionalized market support has waned - and with it, the value in fading them. Their inconsistency these days means they’re not the kind of team I often want to bet on or against, and I wouldn’t want to steer the PB Community in the wrong direction.
That said, one hallmark of the Clay Helton era is a strong start and an utter inability to adjust in game. If nothing else, USC first quarter/first half and the opponent in the second half makes for a fair rule of thumb.