Originally posted on 04/02/2019:

Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
what rigorous math supports using kelly on an unknown probability?
and you said silly ideas, what else is silly? Please list them one by one if you would.
It is used when the probability is known. The rigorous math is easy to find: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion#Proof. And you said yourself that when using market prices to assign probabilities, Kelly Criterion can be used to maximize profits. (Again: "now if you are talking about line shopping and using the current line to base your kelly%, you probably can have some success since we know the current line is the most efficient"). It is silly to then turn around and say that Kelly Criterion cannot be used to maximize profits.

But it's obvious you're only here to argue and not to learn.