Originally posted on 09/21/2018:

Quote Originally Posted by Matt Landes View Post
PICK OF THE WEEK: SAN FRANCISCO +6.5 AT KANSAS CITY

I might be stepping on the tracks when the train's coming through, but with this much of an adjustment to what was a line of Chiefs -2 prior to Week 1 kicking off and Chiefs -4 as recently as last week, I can't help myself. We might even see the few 7s that are out there become more common by kickoff. The gap between these teams just doesn't seem that pronounced when digging beneath the box score.

Kansas City's offense has been dynamic, and while there haven't been many chinks in the armor, the production we've seen through 2 weeks is bound to regress at least a little bit. Defensively, there's virtually no armor to be found for the Chiefs, with last year's No. 30 unit according to DVOA dipping to a ranking of dead last thus far in 2018. The 49ers should be able to take advantage, but that only becomes more apparent without taking their first two final scores at face value.

San Francisco very well could've won outright in Minnesota in Week 1, and easily should've covered, but was done in by the sequence of a dropped pass to foil a big play followed by a pick-six, in addition to a lost fumble at the goal line on another drive. The 49ers were also in position to cover comfortably with a 30-13 lead over Detroit in the fourth quarter last Sunday before setting things in cruise control down the stretch to allow the Lions to pull off a backdoor cover.

If there's a backdoor cover in this one it'll go to San Francisco, but that might not be necessary. A team that could easily be 2-0 ATS instead comes in 0-2 ATS, and that coupled with a matchup against perhaps the most talked-about offense of the young season seems to have created misconceptions resulting in value on the 49ers.
Another development that I have not seem mentioned out there that will support your play (and mine too The return of Ruben Forster to for Ninres D. This guy bring enthusiasm, and energy to the team that just jumps off the screen when you watch him play. His has a hell of a motor and, this coupled with rookie LB Fred Warner will give them a couple of great athletes in the middle of the D which fly to the ball east west as well as north south. I look for them to play in integral role in trying to limit one of the Chiefs biggest weapons TE Travis Kelsey. The D got burned late last week by Detroit, and I look for them to rebound and throw a few wrinkles at the young QB. This line has moved way to much I love the points and some ML as well........