Originally posted on 09/13/2018:

MMA Mania Prelim Predictions -





205 lbs.: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Marcin Prachnio

Magomed Ankalaev (10-1) looked every bit the top prospect he was supposed to be in his Octagon debut, handily outclassing Paul Craig on the feet and on the mat. In the waning moments of the fight, however, he panicked when caught in a triangle and wound up tapping with just a second left.
After starting his career with four consecutive decision, he’s scored a (technical) knockout in five of his last six wins.
Poland’s Marcin Prachnio (13-3) used his Kyokushin prowess to rack up eight consecutive wins, six of them knockouts, on his way to UFC. He was supposed to debut against Jake Collier, but instead faced late replacement Sam Alvey, who put him to sleep in violent fashion.
His only other defeat since his third professional MMA fight came against current rising star Aleksandar Rakic.
I was heartbroken when Ankalaev tapped out, but I still have faith in the young man. He’s a strong, well-rounded fighter with devastating ground-and-pound who could make a real impact in a top-heavy division. Prachnio, on the other hand, may not get too far. I knew his defense was lacking, but I didn’t realize he’d just walk face-first into a known counter-puncher’s best shots.
Ankalaev’s straight punches will allow him to control the fight at range, and while Prachnio is quite dangerous at point-blank range, his haphazard entries open him up to Ankalaev’s takedown game. As good a scrambler as the Pole is, Ankalaev is downright lethal once he gets on top. He gets Prachnio to the mat via either knockdown or trip, then pounds him out from there.
Prediction: Ankalaev via second-round technical knockout

185 lbs.: Adam Yandiev vs. Jordan Johnson

Adam Yandiev (9-0) — a decorated judoka — has ended all of his professional fights in the first round, six of them by choke or neck crank. Despite this success at Light Heavyweight, where he regularly weighed in under the limit, he’ll make the move to 185 pounds for his Octagon debut.

This will be his first fight in nearly three years.

“Big Swingin’” Jordan Johnson (9-0) put the hurt on Henrique da Silva in his Octagon debut, using wrestling and ground-and-pound to easily overpower the Brazilian. Marcel Fortuna and Adam Milstead proved a bit tougher, as while Johnson walked away with the victory both times, media outlets were split practically down the middle.

He replaces the injured Krzysztof Jotko on less than one month’s notice.

Yandiev’s a bizarre case. Almost none of his opponents were worth a damn and, according to Bloody Elbow’s Karim Zidan, his most recent opponent fought in a suspiciously stupid manner after Yandiev gassed himself out just minutes into the fight.

His Judo looks legit, but I can’t get a bead on the rest of his game.

Not a good sign when coming off a huge layoff against a grinder. Johnson’s a solid wrestler with the gas tank to pursue the takedown and do damage on top for all three rounds, something I expect him to have a lot more success doing at 185 pounds. Johnson avoids a few early grappling hazards before ultimately pounding out the exhausted Russian.

Prediction: Johnson via third-round technical knockout


170 lbs.: Ramazan Emeev vs. Stefan Sekulic

Russia’s Ramazan Emeev (17-3) entered the Octagon on a 12-1 run, the only blemish a loss to Vyacheslav Vasilevskiy that he later avenged. He’s gone perfect (2-0) in UFC with decisions over Sam Alvey and Alberto Mina.

“Gorets” has stopped seven opponents by submission and another three by (technical) knockout.

Serbia’s Stefan Sekulic (12-2) has tasted defeat just once in his last nine fights, a bout with Adriano Balby that he was dominating before a blocked high kick attempt broke his tibia. He was back in action just eight months later and has earned a pair of guillotine finishes on his way to UFC.

He steps in for the injured Claudio Silva on short notice.

I was honestly more impressed when watching Sekulic’s tape than I thought I would be. He wrestles quite well, particularly with a knee tap he’s fond of, and his straight left is plenty sharp. The problem here is that Emeev boasts a similar, but more proven skillset. He just seems to have the edge wherever the fight could take place, and Sekulic’s lack of time to prepare won’t do him any favors.

Emeev’s combination punching figures to be a bit more effective than Sekulic’s striking offense and “Gorets” should come out on top in the wrestling exchanges. Once again, not an action-packed show from Emeev, but a win’s a win.

Prediction: Emeev via unanimous decision


135 lbs.: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Terrion Ware

The brief UFC career of Merab Dvalishvili (7-4), which began after he upset Raufeon Stots on “Lookin’ for a Fight,” has been as bizarre as it has been entertaining. After losing a split decision to Frankie Saenz wherein he took down the veteran 11 times, Dvalishvili put on a show against Ricky Simon before getting controversially submitted via guillotine at the literal final instant of the fight.

He stands two inches shorter than “Flash” at 5’6.”

Terrion Ware (17-7) has been similarly unsuccessful in the Octagon, though he’s likewise given a good account of himself. His three-fight skid includes competitive losses to current standouts Cody Stamann, Sean O’Malley and Tom Duquesnoy.

Six of his nine stoppages have come via (technical) knockout.

I’m normally a bit perplexed when someone goes 0-3 and stays on UFC’s roster, but I’m glad they gave Ware another shot. He’s a legitimately skilled striker who faced some dangerous match ups and, by and large, did pretty well against them. Unfortunately for him, this might be the most toxic style clash yet. Dvalishvili’s wild wrestling and immense strength mean Ware will struggle to get anything going on the feet before getting manhandled.

Though Dvalishvili will always be vulnerable because of his madcap aggression, this is an extremely winnable fight for him. Ware is nowhere near as dangerous on the ground as Simon and is a lesser wrestler than Saenz, allowing Dvalishvili to spam takedowns with impunity. Another smorgasbord of takedowns earn him the win.

Prediction: Dvalishvili via unanimous decision


185 lbs.: C.B. Dollaway vs. Khalid Murtazaliev

C.B. Dollaway (17-8) fought his way out of a three-fight skid last year with a decision over fellow The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veteran Ed Herman at TUF 25 Finale. He then faced Hector Lombard, who got himself disqualified by knocking out Dollaway after the first-round bell.

“The Doberman” has scored six professional knockouts and three submissions.

Khalid Murtazaliev (13-2) has been nothing if not destructive in his five years as a pro, scoring (technical) knockout finishes in 11 of his 13 victories. His accomplishments also include reaching the Fight Nights Global tournament finals, where he suffered his second defeat to Absupyan Alikhanov in a bloody battle.

He takes this fight on one week’s notice after both Omari Akhmedov and Artem Frolov withdrew because of injury.

Murtazaliev’s as dangerous as the knockout percentage would have you believe, but he’s also an extremely raw talent. Though his kicks are devastatingly fast and powerful, he tends to wing his punches and showed issues getting past Alikhanov’s jab in their rematch. He also gassed late in that fight, allowing Alikhanov to catch him with an uppercut that would have felled a horse.

I see this as less of a challenge for Dollaway than Frolov would have been, but a bit more dangerous than Akhmedov. “The Doberman’s” chin has failed him in the past and Murtazaliev can do some real damage if he winds up landing on top. More likely, though, Dollaway outwrestles and outstrikes his short-notice opponent on his way to an increasingly dominant decision.

Prediction: Dollaway via unanimous decision


135 lbs.: Petr Yan vs. Jin Soo Son

Petr Yan (9-1) entered the Octagon as the ACB Bantamweight champion, a title he earned by avenging a loss to Magomed Magomedov and defended with a knockout of unbeaten Matheus Mattos. He came up big as expected in his UFC debut, handing Teruto Ishihara the first knockout loss of his career.

“No Mercy” has knocked out four opponents and submitted one other.
Jin Soo Son (9-2) — a protege of “The Korean Zombie” — has spent almost all of his four-year career in Japan’s venerable DEEP promotion. His current four-fight win streak includes a knockout of Toshiaki Kitada, who had beaten Son by majority decision in 2015.

He steps in for the injured Douglas Andrade on short notice.

Full disclosure, I only managed to find one fight of Son’s, that being the finish of Kitada in April. I even tried searching his name in the original characters (손진수) without success. He wasn’t super active in that fight, either, mostly just stalking Kitada, smiling whenever he got hit, and ultimately putting him away the first time he really committed to his combinations.

It’s a good thing he enjoys getting hit, because Yan is going to hit him ... a lot.

I genuinely believe Yan is already ready for a Top 15- or Top 10-ranked opponent. Andrade would have been an interesting foe, as Yan is a bit easy to hit and Andrade has concrete in his hands, but Son presents no such stylistic intrigue. “No Mercy” scores another early finish.

Prediction: Yan via first-round technical knockout


155 lbs.: Rustam Khabilov vs. Kajan Johnson

Rustam Khabilov (22-3) has quietly assembled a five-fight win streak since dropping consecutive decisions to Benson Henderson and Adriano Martins (all via decision). He was last seen defeating fellow wrestler Des Green, increasing his takedown total to 21 over that five-fight stretch.

This will be his first fight in nearly a year, as he was injured before a planned fight with Johnson in March.

Kajan Johnson (23-13-1) went from being on the wrong end of one of the most violent knockouts in TUF history to winning four straight, among them a one-punch finish of the massively favored Adriano Martins. The run came to an abrupt end in August when Islam Makhachev caught him in an armbar with less than 20 seconds left in the first round.

He has finished 16 opponents as a professional, 11 by submission.

Someone in UFC brass really wants to put Johnson on a losing streak. Though Khabilov isn’t quite as slick a submission artist as Makhachev, he’s every bit as dangerous with his takedowns and looks to be physically stronger to boot. Johnson’s newfound ability to work at his preferred range won’t be much use against someone willing to drive through his strikes to get the clinch and his takedown defense can’t stand up to the Dagestani suplex machine.

Khabilov has a bad habit at times of leaning too much on his stand up and letting himself fall into a hole against sharper strikers, which is definitely a concern, but he generally wises up before the lead gets insurmountable. Khabilov repeats his countryman’s efforts, repeatedly downing Johnson and chipping away with punches from the top all night.

Prediction: Khabilov via unanimous decision


155 lbs.: Mairbek Taisumov (26-5) vs. Des Green

Despite the U.S. **** office’s best efforts, Mairbek Taisumov (26-5) has torn through all comers since his 2014 loss to Michel Prazeres, scoring five consecutive knockouts and three straight post-fight bonuses. His latest win was among the most violent yet, a one-punch starching of undefeated Felipe Silva in Rotterdam.

”Beckan” has just one decision victory, 15 of the others coming by (technical) knockout.

Des Green (21-7) — a former Bellator and Titan FC standout — started strong in UFC with an entertaining split decision over Josh Emmett. He struggled against fellow grinders Rustam Khabilov and Michel Prazeres, but righted the ship in June with a decision over Gleison Tibau.

He is one inch taller than Taisumov, though their reaches are identical.

This could go a lot of ways — Green has never been stopped with strikes, and while Taisumov has yet to show any fatigue in his fights since the Prazeres debacle, none of those lasted long enough for us to get an idea of how long he can maintain that vicious pace of his. Green has a legitimate avenue of victory if he can survive those sledgehammer punches and grind the pace to a halt.

Way easier said than done, of course. Taisumov’s speed and low kicks should prevent Green from generating any consistent pressure and “Beckan” is a sound enough wrestler to keep it standing. Taisumov goes to his first UFC decision in ages, outstriking but never quite felling the ever-durable Green.

Prediction: Taisumov via unanimous decision


Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2018: 125-60