Originally posted on 04/17/2018:

I have Bucks for series +140. Thought it was 50/50 going into the series and still think that (taking away the increased probability for C's from being up 1-0 obviously) Similar to the Celts/Wizards series last year, the Celts have the coaching, homecourt, little more depth (although not much) and the Bucks have the best 5 man lineup.

The key to the game is going to be who can exploit who better when the Bucks go to their small lineup of Giannis-Middleton-Snell-Brogdon-Bledsoe. That is going to be their best lineup in terms of being able to switch everything on D and spread the court most effectively on offense. I could maybe see Parker getting in over Snell but his defense is just atrocious, it was never expected to be good but he just can't move laterally after those ACL's and while the Celts have to get very creative to manufacture pts w/o their big horses, they don't have anyone you can hide a bad defender on in their best lineup either. And Stevens in general is excellent at pushing the right buttons and getting those types of players off the court.

Celts did a pretty good job in game 1 of getting Horford the ball in the right spots against that lineup and he delivered, but they also had great shotmaking. Bledsoe was terrible on both ends, we'll see how he recovers, been awhile since he's been in the playoffs.

See this being a long series where neither team can play more than 7-7.5 man rotations because of how much pts are going to be at a premium.