Originally posted on 02/10/2018:

First post here. Been lurking for years. Would firstly like
to thank you all for the great discussions that you guys have been partaking in
here. I have gained much insight and knowledge from the lot of you and it was
not without appreciation. Hopefully, I will be able to add a little something
in return.


Anyhow, here are my breakdowns and picks for UFC 221.





1 – Abe vs Jumeau





On first thought, I was leaning towards Abe here. He has
great hand dexterity and surprising power for his frame, and did some major
damage to a dangerous guy in Lim. Jumeau, on the other hand, had a solid
performance in his debut, but didn’t stand out to me as someone who will make
much of a dent in the big league that is the UFC. In fact, I still don’t think
he will. But after rewatching Abe’s fight with Lim and Luke vs. Steele, I’m
picking him to get the small upset here. One thing that really struck me
watching Abe’s debut was the drastic difference between how advanced his upper
body movement appeared in contrast with his footwork and movement of his lower
body/feet. Often times, Abe appeared to simply be standing flat footed, waiting
for an opportunity to let his hands go but not showing much ability to force
those situations with angles and pressure. This really almost cost him the
fight, in my opinion, as the second round and a good portion of the third
appeared to see him drifting towards a loss, until of course he turned up the
volume and ultimately finished the final frame with a huge knockdown and follow
up punches. Jumeau is not the better fighter here, and Abe is probably actually
the better athlete as well. But Jumeau also probably realizes this and will, in
my estimation, at least be the more willing and active (although
strike-for-strike less effective) fighter on the feet, which is where I see the
majority of this fight taking place. I think that he can out-volume Abe here
and win at least 2/3 rounds so long as he can avoid letting Abe find the
openings that he will need to have big moments and potentially finish or do
enough to sway the judges. At +130, I feel as if the odds should probably be
reversed and thus, this is the first play of the night for me on this card.


Luke Jumeau +130 (2.5 units)








2 – Quinones vs. Ishihara





“Bitches” was one of my most anticipated prospects prior to
the Lobov and Maynard fights, two occasions where he managed to reveal a pretty
clearcut blueprint for how he can lose fights. Making the cut to 135 seems like
a something of a desperation move, and while that usually would make me shy away
from a fighter but, this actually might be one of the rare exceptions. Feeling
like his back is against the proverbial wall here might just be the best
possible mindset for Ishihara to have going into a fight against a stylistic
contrast like Quinones, a fighter who in a lot of ways is the exact opposite of
Ishihara (not overly dangerous but very willing to mix it up and be as active
as possible in order to get the W). An apathetic Ishihara would be a rightful
underdog going into this matchup as his tendency to wait for that one perfect
counter shot would most likely lead to him being on the losing end of a
decision those 60-70% of the times that he wouldn’t be able to land it. I doubt
Ishihara will be as content to do so much waiting here, however, as he certainly
realizes that his UFC career is on the line and likely feels as if his
opponent, being a smaller and less dangerous (at least from a highlight-reel KO
sense of the word) guy, is undeserving of being the one to send him back to the
minors. I expect Ishihara to press the action more than usual here and am not
so sure how Quinones will deal with fighting off of his back foot, especially
given the amount of power that will be coming at him. It is certainly possible
that Ishihara shits the bed again here, or that Quinones simply is too well
rounded and saps Ishihara’s will and gas tank with a few early takedowns, but
on the feet I favor the Japanese fighter significantly and am not overly
convinced that Quinones can take down a fresh Ishihara especially if the fight
is being brought to him which would likely be the opposite of what he is
expecting. At +175/+180, this seems like a must play to me, although it
couldn’t be further from a sure thing.


Teruto Ishihara +180 (1.75 units) and +175 (0.75 units)





3 – Pearson vs Hirota





Ross Pearson gets another fight despite having lost 4 in a
row, and I’m certainly not going to complain about it. He hasn’t been fighting
elite competition, per say, but also hasn’t been given that rebound fight that
established and well-liked guys like him usually are gifted when in danger of
getting the ax. To me (I’m sure many of you may disagree), this fight is
exactly that. When a fighters time comes, it comes hard, and rarely is it wise
to bet on an aging veteran to snap a skid like Pearson’s. That being said, I
watch those four fights that he’s lost on this downward slide and walk away
feeling as if he would have lost those exact same fights in similar ways at any
point throughout his career. He didn’t look like a lesser version of Ross
Pearson, he simply looked like Ross Pearson. In fact, I had him up against
Hooker until the finish, and also I think it’s fair to say that he was much
more competitive with Masvidal than even a guy like Cerrone was (and the
timeframe of those fights weren’t too far apart; was a 170 lb fight vs
Masvidal, IIRC, despite both guys having traditionally been lightweights). I’m
not going to get too much into the technicalities of this matchup because
everyone here should know what both of these guys are about. My thought is
this. Any version of Ross Pearson would have lost to his last four opponents
and any version of Ross Pearson should be able to outbox and outwork Mizuto
Hitota to a clear-cut decision.


Ross Pearson -145 (bet to win 2.55 units)





4 – Da Silva vs. Nguyen





Interesting test here for Ben-10 as he faces one of
flyweights best positional grapples in Formiga. I feel like this fight is being
set up to push Benny towards a #1 contender bout and I think that the
matchmakers chose the perfect opponent to get him there. Da Silva is a supreme
grappler, typically winning his fights by attaining dominant positions and
forcing his opponent into a game where they have no choice but to be defensive
for the entire fight, thus nullifying their own offense. As good as he is in
that regard, his submission prowess hasn’t necessarily been showcased too often
under the UFC banner as he has only a third of his wins via stoppage. Still,
the game works quite often for him, even against relatively high-caliber opposition,
and it is very possible that he does the same here. I’m going with Ben here
though. His last submission loss was over ten years ago, and despite losing a
grapple-centric battle vs Smolka not all that long ago, I’m not sure that Da
Silva’s style (althought much, much, much more skilled and technical than
Smolka’s grappling: don’t get what I’m saying twisted) is going to match up
against Ben quite as effectively. The Smolka fight was full of scrambles, back
and forth , and that itself seemingly gave Nguyen, an uber-offensive fighter by
nature, an outlet in which he could exercise his pursuit for a finish despite
being at a disadvantage and being on the wrong end of most of what was
happening. Even if Da Silva gets Ben down, I feel like the action will be less
back and forth and thus will simply drive Ben away from scrambling and going
back and forth on the ground, unlike the way the Smolka fight seemed to work
out mentally for him. At some point, Nguyen will be in a spot where he can
unleash some offense and the more of it that Da Silva has forced him to hold
within himself and let build up, the more aggressive and determined he will be
to make it happen, and to make it happen quickly. This type of aggression,
combined with Ben’s power and boxing ability, is exactly what Formiga has
struggled with in his UFC losses, at least prior to the Borg and somewhat the
Cejudo fight. I’m thinking Ben gets the second round TKO after being controlled
for much of the first.


Ben Nguyen +110 (4 units)





5 – Kennedy vs. Volkanovski





I really could be dead wrong on my analysis here. Let me
just go ahead and say that and get it out of the way.


Volkanovski has the power advantage, and the technical
striking advantage. He has the strength and is probably the better wrestler. In
fact, he’s probably the better overall fighter here. But I’m not too convinced
that Jeremy Kennedy gives a shit. According to both Volkanovski and the UFC,
Kennedy has been the one pushing for this matchup even with the strong public
perception that he will enter it outmatched. Despite all of the advantages that
Volkanovski has on paper (an on film, honestly), I feel like Kennedy has a
certain level of grit and persistence that makes him the better long-term prospect
of the two. I don’t see Volkanovski ultimately making it any further than the
bottom end of the divsions’s top ten, if that, and even with a loss here, I
could see Kennedy eventually being a 5-8 ranked guy down the line if he
continues to aggressively push towards the top and develops some more
solidarity within the holes that his game most definitely has at this moment.
For this fight he will enter with a size and reach advantage that should help
even things out on the feet, at least in short spurts, as Kennedy will most
likely be looking to press the New Zealander up against the cage and grind him
from there. The height advantage really could be a factor there as cage-clinch
striking could very well end up being a significant chunk of what takes place
during this fight. I really see two equally likely outcomes here. The first is
that Volkanovski comes out and torches Kennedy, either with early punches or by
manhandling him with his wrestling and really making this a one-sided beatdown.
And the other, equally likely (to me), outcome is that this is a close, not
very exciting, grind-filled affair, a style of fight in which I heavily favor
Kennedy to outwork and outgrit Volkanovski. It’s a pick-em to me, maybe even
slightly favoring Volkanovski. But the value is there, at least in my
estimation


Jeremy Kennedy + 170 (2 units)





6 – Adesanya vs. Wilkinson





So excited to see Izzy make his debut. The highlight reels
are incredibile with this one. I’ll admit though, the Guillard fight is the
only full MMA (not including Glory) fight of his I have watched. Wilkinson’s
record would indicate that he is a relatively dangerous opponent here, but his
fight with Siyar pretty much did just the opposite. I do recall Izzy calling
out Wilkinson after the Guillard win despite already being in different
organizations by then. I wonder if the UFC made the fight because of some
possible bad blood or what not between the two? Who knows. All I care about is
seeing how Adesanya looks here so I can develop a better grasp of how he will
perform now that he is in the majors. As for this, his debut, it will be a
no-play as I spent too much time capping the fights that I knew I could get
reads on and didn’t bother with one where the odds were too steep on the guy I
would likely end up favoring. Maybe if Wilkinson was being offered around +375
or more, then I would have been inclined to properly cap this fight. Certainly
will be watching and enjoying the show.





7 – Brown vs Kim





On paper this should be a war, and it very well may turn out
that way, but Kim’s last few fights have shown him taking a different, more
measured although less effective approach. He really did not impress me in the
O’Reilly fight and honestly, who wouldn’t torch Gomi in 2017? Realistically,
his most impressive performance was a fight in which he ended up getting TKO’d
by an 8-4 guy who lost 3 out of 4 before entering the UFC. WHY IS HE A FAVORITE
HERE? Yeah, Brown is another exciting but not very great fighter, but , outside
of the Pachel KO, he’s shown to be more durable, more consistent with his approach,
a better grappler (although Kim seems to fancy himself a grappler lately, at
least in the O’Reilly fight), and a more powerful puncher who is also fighting
in his hometown. Why care about technique when capping this when these guys
don’t even care about technique when fighting?


Damien Brown +115 (2 units)





8 – Pedro vs Saforov (did not cap; never betting Saforov and
I wouldn’t take Pedro – 300 against any LHW on the roster until I see more
development from him; not a knock on the guy, he has potential in my opinion,
just too raw to get a comfortable read on at the moment)





9 – Li vs Mathews


Finally. This is the one I’ve been waiting on. When watching
Li’s first two UFC bouts, I honestly pegged him as future fade material. Boy,
could I have been more wrong there huh? The torching of Dhiego Lima that
followed didn’t answer all of my questions it sure opened my eyes and
thankfully so. This kid is an absolute pleasure to watch and has surpassed any
expectations I had for him two fights in. And oh how ironic does that make this
matchup against Jake Mathews, a guy who I could literally type the
alternate-world version of the previous three sentences about and have it ring
100% true. Two fights into his UFC career, Mathews looked like a future title
contender if not champion. Subbing Vagner Rocha? Where did this kid even come
from? But then came James Vick, a few not all that impressive wins, and a
demolition at the hands of Kevin Lee. It was then that I realized just how
little Jake Matthews had developed during his UFC tenure thus far, and just how
limited his game actually was. Well. I didn’t realize exactly how limited it
really was until the next fight, a loss to Andrew penetrating Holbrook. Wow. At
this point in time, it’s fair to not only call his technical skillset limited
but also his mental. A strange move to welterweight and an unimpressive win
over Bojan Velickovic certainly haven’t changed my thoughts on this kid, while
during this same time, Li has shown true stride and development in both of
these aspects, showing more and more poise with this striking rather than just
the swing wild and brawl style that he began with, and also showing a very
improved ability to gauge distance and combine that with a decent sprawl to
become harder and harder to get to the floor, which happens to be the only way
Mathews would have a shot at winning this fight. Easy call here, especially
since for whatever reason the public has bet this down to give us even better
odds. I love it. Maybe I’ll be eating crow Sunday and I don’t mind that. The
read is solid and the value is there.


Jiangling Li -190 (bet to win 2 units)/ -160 (bet to win 5
units)


U2.5 rds +145 (1.5 units)





10 – Tuivasa vs Asker





This is a fight tailor made to get Tuivasa a showcase finish
in his home turf and chances are that will happen, and happen quickly. If not,
he very well could lose this fight. All I know for sure is that I don’t bet
completely unproven heavyweights at nearly -300, and I don’t bet on Cyril
Asker. So. Next please.





11 – Blaydes vs Hunt





I love Blaydes here. Hunt is a known commodity and there are
known ways to beat him. Still, not every fighter has the skillset to do so but
Blaydes most certainly is not every fighter and barring a brainfart or flash
KO, he should easily take Hunt down and grind him out. I probably would be less
certain if not for the Ngannou fight, in which Blaydes took some huge shots and
never went down, but given that proven chin, reach advantage and wrestling
accolades, it’s his fight to lose. Add on top of that the fact that Hunt seems
to be mentally checked out of the UFC already and this is a easy, medium sized
play.





Curtis Blaydes -155 (to win 3 units)


Over 1.5 rds ( to win 1.5 units)





12- Rockhold vs Romero





This fight is the definition of a toss-up to me. Well. It’s
the definition of a toss-up in which I ever so slightly favor one guy, that guy
being Rockhold. It’s really a match where both guys have the definitive ability
to capitalize on each other’s glaring weaknesses: Romero’s power could end
Rockhold’s night at any time due to his questionable chin and poor boxing
defense, and Rockhold’s length and cardio should allow him to force this fight
into deep waters where Romero will likely fade and become a sitting duck (with
crazy 3rd round finishing power ). I only bet this because I saw
the line open on my book at +145 for Rockhold and knew that this was off. At
the current odds, I would either pass or make a very small play on Romero.


Luke Rockhold +145 (5 units)





Hope these breakdowns help any of you on the fence about a
certain fight as many of you have helped me with the same on many occasions.





Best of luck to all of you SBR fam!!