Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=27311862'>posted</a> on 10/29/2017:

Quote Originally Posted by Da Manster! View Post
KVB,
so which is a more accurate barometer of success?...what I mean to say is which of the forecasts (sharp or stacking) has a higher win % in the long run and which one should I use or which one do you recommend?
I didn't see this post Manster, sorry it took so long to get back.

The sharp forecast is a long term effort and has a pretty even keel. It may vary game by game and have what looks like extreme results with some games but week in and week out it will center on a certain edge. It can stretch out a few weeks but make its way back to that edge. The sharp forecast can have down years but still comes back. It is dynamic, adjusting as the season moves forward. For the most part, the sharp forecast doesn’t care who the players are, it is based on more general metrics that work year to year. It is predictable in some ways, like predicting upsets successfully at a 30% clip, with little variance. It’s been that way for decades. Consider it a backbone of the reality of sports.

If you are comparing the sharp forecast to your own work, you’ll notice some games are best pulled out. Teams that just lost their QB’s are good to avoid, and they have been losing, like this Thursday and games with GB. Take those out, and the record is that much better. It takes a few weeks for a team with a new QB or major contributor to adjust into the sharp forecast and while that can better the performance, I am not mentioning it in the triggers. This is because it is a long term forecast and those losses, while they can be avoided short term, also end up being noise from a long term perspective.

You really can’t go wrong following the sharp forecast but it’s best to compare it to your own work and then track.

The stacking forecast does care who is at the helm and other positions as well. We’ve already seen key injuries delay the stacking forecast while the sharp forecast just moves forward. There’s a link early in this thread that leads to a small explanation of the stacking forecast and how it’s designed to lower the average line error.

For the most part, when I’ve been posting it, the stacking forecast has been outperforming the sharp forecast but has been streakier when doing it. One example is last year’s NFL playoffs. The stacking forecast nailed nearly every game, while the sharp forecast was closer to 50-50.

The sharp forecast is the main one to look at and you may find that the stacking forecast looks more like your own work.

There are many ways to handicap but these forecasts represent certain types of market moving money, especially at certain times. They can help us watch money flow back and forth in the markets. I have been using these forecasts, along with the public gauge, most often to explain why the line has opened where it has opened and moves to where it moves to or closes. We’ve seen some examples and this week a couple of Totals moved from the open and stopped at some limits in my triggers, some of those lines have now pushed through though.

I’ve always said you can just follow the sharp forecast and if you had done that with the CFL this year, you would have done well. I don’t think the NFL will perform quite as well but I’ve been caught trying to counter the sharp forecast a few times this year, only to fail.