Originally posted on 09/19/2017:

Quote Originally Posted by thomorino View Post
I disagree with you, but I would argue though that another way of telling if a line has value before the game is to look at what the line was before the season started and look at the line now and see if the move is justified. In my opinion the Saints defense is bullshit and missing Armstead, Cooks, and Snead is a big deal.

Plain and simple. The value of Carolina -6 is determined by what the line is at close. If you hold a ticket with Carolina -6 and it closes at Carolina -7 then you have "value" in your ticket as it is 1 point better than market close. If you play Carolina -6 and line close Carolina -4 then your ticket has no value. Now it may win but in an individual capacity or even over a small sample size but I have yet to find anyone consistently not getting +EV on the majority of their plays that is winning this game long term.