Originally posted on 09/19/2017:
Plain and simple. The value of Carolina -6 is determined by what the line is at close. If you hold a ticket with Carolina -6 and it closes at Carolina -7 then you have "value" in your ticket as it is 1 point better than market close. If you play Carolina -6 and line close Carolina -4 then your ticket has no value. Now it may win but in an individual capacity or even over a small sample size but I have yet to find anyone consistently not getting +EV on the majority of their plays that is winning this game long term.