Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=27167905'>posted</a> on 08/25/2017:

The sharp forecast has Saskatchewan winning with 39 points to Edmonton’s 33 or 34 points.

The stacking forecast shows Edmonton winning with 30 or 31 points to Saskatchewan’s 24 or 25 points. Some unsophisticated basic methods actually get down to a tie game and hit that 54 Total while the public gauge has Edmonton winning 29-23.

The line opened early with Edmonton -7 and has moved toward the sharp forecast. The line is basically at the public gauge and sharp forecast. The Total is just below those numbers and once again the sharp forecast is significantly higher than the offered Total.

The public likes their Overs and tonight so do those numbers, even if by only little. There’s a reason the line is 53.5 coming off of 54 and the books are likely taking a small position on the Under by attracting those over bettors. It doesn’t seem to be much of a position, with some bettors passing so be careful, but the Under does seem a little attractive. An early score by Saskatchewan may lead to a LIVE play on the Under.

So once again the sharp forecast is predicting a high score and a Saskatchewan upset that disagrees with the market and other numbers. This is the third time Saskatchewan has been in this position this season. In Week 5 they were 10 point dogs to Calgary and predicted to win by nearly 20 points. In Week 7 Saskatchewan was a 6.5 dog to BC and predicted to win by a TD. Both of those predictions failed and in the Week 8 rematch Saskatchewan was a 4 point dog to BC but the upset was not predicted by the forecast. Saskatchewan won that game in a settlement fashion at the end of the week. That was a successful bold play in this thread.

Saskatchewan took a week off and now here we are, predicted to upset in “disagreement” with the other numbers and offered line. The third time could be the charm here but some metrics show we shouldn’t trust it. Having the outlier type forecast might lead us to think there is a mistake in the handicapping process with Saskatchewan but that’s not the case here. This is by design and should lead to a Saskatchewan settlement somewhere down the road. This week marks the halfway point and that settlement could be stretched in the next half of the season.

On the other hand, the Saskatchewan failures as upset predictions could be leading to a win over Edmonton tonight, but I could see Edmonton stealing that win.

With Saskatchewan settling two weeks ago, the close of the first half of the season looming, and the two game set up for tomorrow waiting, I considered passing tonight on countering the forecast for both the moneyline and the Total.

Instead, I am reducing the risk in hopes of increasing the reward by picking up the two pick parlay of Edmonton -230 and Under 54 (-114) for Saskatchewan vs. Edmonton. This parlay pays 1.69 units.

In terms of how the game plays out, or they bring it, I mentioned that we may see an Under opportunity should Saskatchewan score first early.

I’ll be looking for that signal.

Good Luck.