It's all guess work for the most part. But the key is, and it was mentioned on the head of this thread, is "Value". At +145 this isn't a bad play at all, in fact, I think it's +EV at +135 or higher.
Doesn't really much matter whether today's game wins or not, but does it show profit over the course of 100's, or 1000's of plays. This one I think does.