Originally posted on 01/28/2017:

Quote Originally Posted by grease lightnin View Post
Here is a post I found from another forum:




So... if they win key games, best case scenario--their hold is 12 to 15%... in KVB's illustration the hold would be nearly double that at 23%... so in turn, the downside would be double as well... and his illustration was a -110 bet. I am sure that they need parlays and teasers to get to their number of 12 to 15%. It just doesn't add up.

All due respect, LT, but there is no way books are taking this much risk.... unless they are fixing games.
Not really, the book will always have the edge odds wise because of the vig. For instance, let us say the Super Bowl line is -3 at -110 odds both ways, with $1.6 million wagered on Pats and $400K wagered on Falcons (so 80% of money on NE). If Pats cover, book pays out 1,600,000/1.10 = 1,454,545 and collects 400.000 for loss of ($1,054,545). If Falcons cover, book pays out 400,000/1.10 = 363,636 and collects 1,600,000 of win of $1,236,364. So if the book could stomach risking 1,054,545 to win 1,226,364, it is getting +117 on Falcons +3. A book like Pinny could live with that (although their odds would be lower due to the reduced juice there).