Originally posted on 12/23/2016:

I feel like lines are always inflated in these. Most people never was to take these lower level team vs the top ranked or near tope ranked teams.

I actually won on Cincy 2nd half vs Marshall yesterday but the line was complete bs. Cincy was a -18 point favorite to start the game but after being down 12 at half they made the line -13.5 and then -14 right before the start of the 2nd half. No way should it of been - 13.5 or even -14.

In these early mismatches most of the time it has been the underdog holding down fort for 1 half. That is all they need to do to have a shot at the cover. This with the line being slightly biased to the favorite gives the underdog the needed edge imo...