[Russian Rocket]

Originally <a href='http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=26088986'>posted</a> on 08/04/2016:

Yield Curve not inverted, so that says that recession is not imminent. I don't know what the catalyst could be to cause a massive 2008 like crash. Banks safer, less shitty mortgages, tech not crazily over bought.

As much as you would like to blame the democrats, labor participation rate no one's fault except old age and technology. Understates unemployment but, whatever. By the same token, the president doesn't control the economy.

When adjusting nominal GDP growth for core consumer price inflation for the average of the past two quarters, the recession is already here.
There is no better indicator of global growth than copper- Look at the chart and you'll see, that it's been in a bear market for the past five years.
Then add to it the Baltic Dry Index (The index that measures the demand to transport dry commodities overseas). An advancement of this index would represent an increase in global growth. But if you look at the chart, you'll see that this index has been in a down-trend since the end of 2013 and fallen 75 percent from that point.

And the the very last, look at the spread between the two and 10-year Treasury notes. When this spread is contracting, there is increased pressure on banks' profits, which leads to falling loan growth and less economic activity. The spread has been narrowing since July 2015 and is now the tightest since November 2007.

Welcome to recession, pal - It's already here!