Originally posted on 07/06/2016:

I don't know how many of you pop over to my thread to read my plays, but I've done a fair bit of analysis for tonight so I thought I'd chuck it in here as well. Enjoy.

MENS

- Raonic vs. Querrey UNDER 43.5 games (PINNACLE) - $2 - TWO STAKES

For my analysis today I've used statistics. A lot of people often don't bother, or use statistics that don't really matter. To be fair to them, it's a complicated question. But nonetheless, some matter more than most. For me, the SINGLE most important stats are % break points won and % break points saved. All well and good to be nailing winners and aces and hitting low unforced errors, but matches are decided on pivotal points. I think it's fair to say that matches are decided on break points - one way or another. Someone like Djokovic is number one because he has incredible nerve on break points. He converts 44% of the break point chances he gets. That's top echelon. Similarly, lower ranked players are lower ranked players because they often do not play their best tennis on break points.

What I've done is compared break point % (saved and converted) and compared it against the player's career average. I've then done a bit of analysis to find the number of times I expect the player to break (or be broken, depending on the way you look at it) in their quarter-final match.

People have been raving about Querrey all tournament, but I've consistently said he's still not playing amazing well. He got a large slice of luck in that Djokovic was off his game and capitalised. The stats back me up. He's won 34% of bp, while his career average is 32%. He's saved 69% of bp, while his career average is 69%.

Raonic, on the other hand, is slightly different. He's won 36%, compared to 37% in his career. He has, however, saved 81%, compared to a 70% career average on grass. It gets even better. If you take away the two first sets in his match against Goffin (where he was playing some absolutely grouse tennis - not his usual level at all), he has saved 100% of break points. 100%. Nobody has broken him.

Querrey is nowhere near as good as Goffin, so I don't think it's a stretch to say Raonic will be more likely to operate at the 100%. Looking at chances generated, Querrey had to face 32 break points, compared to Raonic with 16 (or 8 if you take out the first two vs. Goffin). AFter doing a few simple sums, Querrey will get broken around 2.9 times in the match. Raonic, depending on which set of data you use, will get broken 1.36 times, or 0.68 times. For me, it's a simple answer. Raonic is clearly playing the better tennis at pressure moments, and should end Sam's run with little fuss.

- Berdych vs. Pouille - OVER 36.5 games (SPORTSBET) - $1.83 - TWO STAKES

If you want a classic case where a player has overperformed, look no further than Lucas Pouille. I'll start with Tomas Berdych though. He's won 47% of break points in the tournament, compared to a CA of 35%. This shows he's taking the chances when presented. His bp saved numbers are slightly down, but not enough to suggest anything is drastically wrong.

A few of my friends have been asking why Pouille has been playing so well. Well, here's your answer: During his career on grass, Pouille has won 32% of the bp he earned. In this tournament, he's won 67%. Read that again. 67%. That's an increase of 35%!!!! Adding to that, his career average of bp saved is 56%. He's saved 75% in this tournament. Before this tourney, he hadn't won a match on grass. He's now in the quarters. Correlation does not imply causation, but that is HUGE evidence that Pouille has been playing at a phenomenal level on break points, and that level is why he's lining up against Tomas Berdych for a place in the semis.

I've done the sums, and Pouille should break Berdych around 4.36 times in the match. Berdych should break Pouille around 4.7 times. Now, I expect Berdych to ultimately win, BUT Pouille has been playing at such a level that it would surprise me if he does not win a set.

- Federer vs. Cilic - UNDER 39 games (PINNACLE) - $2 - TWO STAKES

"Cilic has been playing well" - everyone. Has he, though? Before I start, I have to say that I omitted the data from his match against Nishikori because it's not reliable. In the matches before, he won 25% of the bp he earned, compared to a CA of 37%. That's correct, he's actually down 12% against players that he really should be beating easily. He's winning, but the numbers aren't matching up. To his credit, he's also up 12% on the bp saved, with 80% compared to a CA of 68%.

Federer has allowed only six break points in four games. That's an average of only 1.5 break points in every match. Incredible. The numbers say it's more likely for Federer to not be broken than the alternative. Cilic should only break 0.38 times in the match - a very low number (lower even than Raonic). As a corollary, it shows that you don't need a booming serve to be effective on serve. Federer should win in three sets, but I do expect a tiebreak somewhere, because Cilic has been serving very well.

- Murray vs. Tsonga - First set OVER 10.5 games - $2.2 - ONE STAKE
- Murray 3-0 - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - TWO STAKES

Again, after omitting the game against Gasquet, Tsonga is playing at his normal, career level. Murray, on the other hand, is up. 47% break points converted, compared to 41%, and a 4% rise on bp saved. I don't think Murray will be broken, or if he does, not more than once. Interestingly though, in all six of their past six games, the number of games in the first set has been over 10. I'll ride with the trend on that little piece of data.

Cheers!