[chaka]

Originally posted on 06/27/2016:

My man, you're back! Sorry about the disspointing evening. Looks like you were right, I sure as hell might just go 8 for 8 one night. LMAO!! Anyway, I'll drop my %BR just to do you a favor.

And please excuse my mistake, you are correct the RoI should be profit. Speaking of profit, how was your day? I'd love to hear about your performance because you sound like the next Billy Walters in here.

ROI calculated the proper way is profit/risk not profit/partial unrisked bankroll.

risked $ 1039 returned 1585.61 net $ 546.61 52.61% for me yesterday
nyy RL + 108 Loss
Cin -123 win
Chi +140 loss
CWS -133 win
tb/balt 07 -107 win
tex -122 win
sf ml -230 win
st l +107 ml col -1.5 +132 win


Attachment 90554

sportsbetting ROI isnt like the stock market buying a position for $ 700 holding and cashing out at a later date like you are calculating
you are risking every day more and more and eventually your true total investment is 10x 20x +++ your initial bankroll and the ROI

gets smaller and smaller which is why guys with a hot highly volatile system disappear after a while because laying -190,-170 regularly reflects a very small % ROI and eats them up when the ineveitable losing streak comes...which it did in VR's thread and everyone tailing dropped 10 units or so in one day

most of the followers just want winners but they should also understand the risk/reward.. i explained how they could still benefit by risking less and potentially grossing more before the bad day.. those who followed would have lost little over 4 units less than those who played as posted.. Now VR has done extremely well over past year and a half but his results could be better with better risk management

as killawookie said we've seen this come and go and it ends the same every time...especially when it comes to risking large chunks of BR

you had a high win pct day so did i -neither is sustainable

difference is my avg lay price the way i play requires no where near the win pct on your prop plays to break even...unlike full games no way to reduce juice on a prop unless you parlay a pair but wouldn't recommend that on 1st inning o/u prop


by not taking player past performances into consideration is foolish
-which brings up another point how complicated can your algorithm be if no past performances are used?
basically current form and matchups mean nothing in your formula?
.if the top three batters in an order are struggling and facing a pitcher who owns them- its probably something to factor when they are likely the only people to bat in that inning..

if you want to beat this game you need to use everything at your disposal not just your proclaimed intricate knowledge of the game and the fact you played it.... apparently the signal indicators are gut,game feelers from other posters and line movement

there a stats out there on pitchers who struggle in the first inning (Nola for one),pitchers who are awesome first time thru the order and progressively get worse or vice versa-

the fact you dont see a difference between risking the same on a prop bet vs full game should open peoples eyes..you probably dont see a difference because of the $$$ amount actually risked on the props $ 20-40
but lets bump to $ 500 or $ 1000
you still gonna be risking $ 700 to win $ 500 on that yankee/twins 1st inning over or $ 1750 to win $ 1000 on the ari/col over?

the first inning took what 15 pitches to lose in NY? how many of those losses are you going to take before it sinks in theres a difference between a full game and prop bet
sure batista (tor)will open a game or two with a bomb once in a while but lets see how strong those signals are with some serious coin on the line

fwiw- the yankees game had many things indicating high enough probability of an early run.. twins p ready to be sent down in poor form & giving up .311 avg to lefties facing a yankee lineup with 8 lefties and gopher man euvaldi on mound for ny..game total projection 9.5

even though that play lost for you it was still the right play imo..
true ny bats had been all or nothing past week but generally recipe for breaking slumps is a meatballer on the mound which there was for each team... it just happened that was the game the kid had a no no thru 6.