Originally posted on 06/20/2016:

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Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
Adding UFC Fight Night 89 play:

1 unit on Eddie Alvarez @ 4.75 to win - 3.75 units.

Is Eddie Alvarez on the same level as Rafael Dos Anjos? Yes. Is he going to win? I cant really see any paths to victory for him to be honest. So, my rationale is that i dont think Alvarez should be this big of an underdog when he is basically a top 5 lightweight fighter. In addition, Alvarez has talked about this title shot for a long time. He is so hyped and so passionate about this chance that you know he will give his best. He will try to find Dos Anjos weakness and he can box and move and wrestle and be there the whole five rounds. Dos anjos has outwrestled Pettis, but we all know that Alvares also managed to do the same. Both fought Cerrone, and thats where you see the real difference between the to fighters. Alvarez doesnt have the same finishing capabilities as Dos Anjos which highlight who is the likely winner if the fight ends inside the distance. However, its really how Alvarez apply his strategy that will decide if he will win. I dont think he can straight out wrestle Dos anjos, but perhaps he can mix things up and make it interesting for five rounds. Dos Anjos is the likely winner as he should be better everywhere, but so where luke rockhold, marlos coenen, rousimar palhares and rhonda rousey...and so on.
It's laughable that you think Palhares (0 KOs) and Rousey were better than their opponents everywhere. Both Meek and Holm had clear paths to victory, keeping the fight standing and using their power and distance to win by knockout or decision.

I think Alvarez does have a shot in this one. He has better offensive wrestling than Dos Anjos (3.9 takedown average compared to 2.64) and can use that wrestling to get the fight to the ground and do damage from top position. He has a tendency to get rocked but has only been KOed once in 31 fights. He has gone the 5-round distance a few times in Bellator so his cardio seems fine.

Dos Anjos has been on a tare despite facing elite competition but guys who are tough to finish have at least made it the distance with him (Diaz, Pettis). He has excellent striking and fights with a high pressure style. He has only been finished once by KO against Jeremy Stephens. He has good jitz and I highly doubt Alvarez will sub him (but you never know, he could catch RDA with a guillotine)

Here are a few props I like:
Fight Goes to Decision (+175) alternatively not Dos Anjos ITD (+124) if you believe in Alvarez's durability
Dos Anjos Unanimous Decision (+410)
Alvarez Decision (+610)
Alvarez Split Decision (+1390)