Originally posted on 05/26/2016:

Quote Originally Posted by Anubis View Post
Oh got it, the "barely getting by" 5-3 record of today makes yesterday's 1-5 record perfectly fine. You are still 6-14 since I joined. You have not broken even in your plays. Enough said. Unfortunately, in your best play of the night where you doubled down on the Arizona moneyline (full game and 5 innings), your sabermetrically aligned model could not predict the poor decision (in hindsight) of Arizona's manager to leave the starting pitcher in during the fifth inning. That tells me all I need to know. You will never convince me that you have an edge over this game of inches where lines are tight. Your 1-2 missing sabermetrically-based custom metrics that are not factored into the line are canceled out by the deluge of uncertainties and randomness this great game has. Numbers are usually good at predicting player outcomes, shifts and matchups. However, in the overall result of an MLB game where almost all factors are built into the line, there are way too many uncertainties that numbers or instinct cannot predict. Some other punk might come here and say: "hey, the game is an aggregation of matchups." Even if a runner gets on base, there are way too many uncertainties that come into play with a runner on base that analytical models cannot predict. For example, base running errors, wild pitches, bloop hits that empty the bases with 2 outs, poor umpiring decision, poor managerial decision, etc. Luck is a big factor even if you have made that perfect bet where the line was horrendous. In the end, you need a lot of luck in coming out with a winning record. In winning a bet, luck is far more important than exploiting line inefficiencies. Like I said earlier, line inefficiencies have no effect whatsoever on the result of the "game." That is why we play the game. There is no denying that. Good luck.
And +100 units is luck? Seriously, what is your gripe with me? Not to brag, but I would challenge anyone to produce a +93 season like I had last year based strictly on one base unit per play. Not talking about guys that go 1-9 but claim winning record because the winner was for 10 units.