[POOLSIDE]

Originally posted on 04/04/2016:

LT, does it only worth playing these 60% plays if we got similar odds to yours? I got much lower on it and i figured it will only be profitable in a season if I get odds high enough.

thank you and good luck

Those numbers, on a long enough timeline, are not worth playing. Look at it this way. If a team has a 60% chance of winning, they're winning three out of five times. The "correct" odds would be -150. That would be no advantage for the bettor or the house. To get that number, run the game five times. You'd have three wins for a total profit of 3.00 units and you'd have two losses for a total loss of 3.00 units. Break even.

If you've got a game that's a 60% win, you'd need to be laying less than -150 to have any value. I have no idea at what number LT would deem the game bettable, but anything under -150 technically has value. Assuming the 60% holds true, you'd even make a very small profit over time at -149. LT can chime in if he wants on where he believes value begins, as well as where he thinks there's "too much" value.

The flip side of that same game is obviously betting the dog. At 60% with +150 odds, the dog is break even. Same math as above, except we lose three at units a piece and win two at one and a half units a piece. If you're getting better than +150 on this game, there's value.

Obviously these numbers change depending if the game is 60% or 64% or 71% or whatever.