Originally posted on 03/30/2016:
Winning percentage is irrelevant, I look for games where model % has +EV expectation. In this specific case, model has Calgary at 34% (+194), so I actually expect to lose this play 66% of the time. But the +216 makes it+EV long-term.
And by the way, I am winning in everything except CBB, and MLB starts Sunday. I finished over +90 in MLB last season.