Originally posted on 07/10/2015:

I have Brown getting the sub.

Means has the weapons to take advantage of Brown's defense but he isn't used to fighting higher profile guys in pressure spots like this. Add this to the obvious pressuring style that Brown brings and to me it seems likely that Means will make the most glaring mistake. I've been more impressed with his potential than his performances which doesn't bode well in this situation. Still, both guys have the ability to finish here in a variety of ways. Great fight.

McGregor/Mendes is too fishy for me to bet. I like McGregor Rd 1 KO but if you asked me a week ago I would've taken Chad all day. Robbie seems like the right play in the WW fight but Rory has too many variables in my eyes for me to accurately read this.

I like Stephens but am taking the under rather than straight play. I think it's more likely for Bermudez to finish Stephens than for Stephens to decision Bermudez. If he gets off, Bermudez goes down. Stephens is getting up there in fights and the Yves KO, although it proved less foreshadowing than I originally thought, is in the back of my mind when breaking down Lil' Heathen.

Cathal Pendred and John Howard will be scored a draw. If I had access to this prop I would likely throw a flier.

Garcia should knock Swick out rather quickly but wouldn't touch those odds. The under 1.5 for a tiny play instead. Swick tends to be a finisher when he does show up healthy and fight ready. Also a chance Garcia gasses after 1 and Swick lands a combo or gets a sub.

Biggest play for me is Gunnar. I'm not one who's been on his hypetrain before and am not now, but I do believe that he has a big advantage here. Although his striking is highly overrated, in my opinion, Gunnar shows a solid level of consistency and mental stability to go along with the skill set needed to take advantage of Thatch's weaknesses, his grappling and his mentality. Also, I believe that the previous opponents (Howard/Hathaway) styles and the adjustments needed heading into this match favor Gunnar mentally and technically as well. And, last, and yes I am aware that this is pure speculation, but I believe that Gunnar's loss to Rick Story will have less impact on his confidence than the Benson Henderson loss will for Thatch even though Bendo is obviously the better and more accomplished fighter.









Don't have a good read on Almeida yet but making a small play on Pickett out of general principle.