Originally posted on 04/19/2015:

Thoughts on the closest fight(odds-wise):
C.B. Dollaway(+130) vs Michael Bisping(-150)


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Michael Bisping
Age: 36
Height: 6'1"
Reach: 75.5"


I actually watched Season 3 of The Ultimate fighter and Bisping might have had one of the weakest paths to win The Ultimate fighter though it was at light heavyweight. He has undefeated and Brash but took care of business in the cage.
Since The Ultimate Fighter and his near loss to The king of Rock N’ Rolla, Bisping has improved leaps and bounds especially in the wrestling department.


Though he has improved greatly one of his weaknesses is in wrestling.
He has struggled getting off vs wrestlers, such as Hamill, Evans, Sonnen, and most recently Tim Kennedy. Those were pure wrestlers he has faced. Though he made all of the work for it except for the Kennedy fight.


He’s had much more success vs grapplers with good not great takedowns such as McCarthy, Dan Miller, Elvis, Jason Miller, and Eric Red Scafer. Though the latter three gave him hell in the first few minutes.






His biggest strength, imo, is his cardio.
He is able to set a high pace that a lot of middleweights cannot handle. He became sort of a wrestle-boxer at Middleweight. Mixing up his good boxing with okay takedowns which threw some of his opponents off. He usually out-points his opponents to win a decision or finish them later after wearing them out. He’s not known for that one punch power.







C.B. Dollaway
Age: 31
Height: 6'2"
Reach: 76.0”




Like Bisping he’s also a TUF alum and was on a pretty good season with other talented fighters like Matt Brown. He was also undefeated at the time. Though Amir got the best of him, not once, but twice to leave Cb as a runner-up on technicality.
At the time he was a good wrestler with good submission offense. His striking has improved greatly since the show.


One of his biggest weakness, IMO, is his submission defense. He was easily subbed vs Amir with an Armbar twice while he was on top. He shot sloppily vs Lawlor and was caught in a choke.
Since those losses he has gotten a lot better at shooting sloppily and staying in someone’s guard.
He even avoided the ground for the most part vs Sarafian and Mutante as they are good grapplers and won on the feet.




His biggest strength of course is his wrestling as he’s been wrestling all of his life and still trains at a wrestling-oriented camp at Power MMA.
He also has good offensive submissions to compliment his game. He has brutal front attacks especially his Peruvian Neck-tie and guillotine.
He has good takedowns and good timing. He was able to takedown fellow former-college wresters in Munoz, Boestch, and Massenzio,









Thoughts on the fight:


I think that sticks out for me is CB is about 5 years younger and besides that fight vs Machida he should have been on a 5 fight win streak if he stopped poking Boestch’s eyes.


I did not mention it it in their separate breakdowns, though they are opposites in fighting style and improvement they share a similar weakness. They can get hit with big bombs and appear to be somewhat chinny. I don’’t believe they are in danger of being Ko’d in this fight.




I believe CB will wrestle with Bisping and has the striking to get on the inside. I think he’ll have decent success at getting Bis down at least once a round. I think he’ll struggle holding him down but as Bisping comes up it gives Cb a shot at his neck where the Doberman is lethal. I don’t believe Bisping can get a sub off his back either.


Note:
I’ve read people talking about Cb not using his wrestling as much lately and I believe that to be true only because he was worried about Mutantes and to some degree Sarafians ground game though he still took him down at least once.
He also took down Carmont, Boestch, and Jason Miller multiple times each.



TLDR:
Bisping cannot attack any of CB’s Weaknesses but CB can attack at least one of his.
Cb can attack using his wrestling. Bisping not known for power or sub offense.
Bisping should have cardio advantage but may not be able to capitalize since it’s 3 rounds. Also his volume decreases when facing wrestlers.
Note: Cb has only gassed “bad” once vs Hamman but that seemed the exception not the rule.



My bet is:
CB Dollaway +130.


Will skip decision prop as he’s already the underdog and I can see a front choke sub for him though unlikely.
Maybe +3.5 when it’s released.
I think the points handicap will also be a decent bet as a think he only loses a 29-28 decision. Winning with first round with wrestling, tiring, and losing the next two.


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