[boomer62]

Originally <a href='http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=23788105'>posted</a> on 03/27/2015:

Those bettors who beat the point spread on a consistent basis almost all have one thing in common; they create their own line and then compare it with the line being offered. I believe that if you can also understand why the line being offered both opens where it does and moves to where it ultimately rests it will help find you more winners and even save you from some losers.

For college basketball totals, I have learned to make many different lines. Each line represents a different level of sophistication so I can make judgements on not only the opening line, but the line movement as well.

Let’s take UCLA vs. Gonzaga for example. A few oddsmakers opened with a total of 148.5. This line was quickly bought down to as low as 143.5 before settling at 144 where the rest of the world opened their lines. What happened here? Why was the world comfortable at 144? Why did some books stick their neck out with early line of 148.5?

Anyone can take the season average offense and defense scoring for these two teams, add them all up, divide by two, and viola you have a crude, basic total of about 140 points. No wonder why the line was dropping, it was way too high; hurry, buy the under. Not so fast. UCLA is not the same team it was earlier in the season and both teams have been lighting it up as of late. Run that quick math on the most recent, say, four or five games and you get upwards of 152 points. Obviously both teams’ recent performance is not only going to affect public opinion, but also the line.

Seasoned bettors have learned to apply certain weighted combinations of past and recent performance to develop better performing, or sharper, total lines. Just before I apply a final tweak to arrive at my most sophisticated total number for basketball games, I come to a fairly sophisticated base number. For UCLA versus Gonzaga that base number is 143.9. It is common for this level of my total line to very close to the opening lines. I can see why the world sits at 144 and if my final number were 143.9, I’d have to pass on the game. This total appears very sharp and some decent total handicappers may sit on the sidelines here.

That would be a mistake. Let’s throw some common sense in the mix. When two higher scoring teams like UCLA and Gonzaga matchup they tend to run up the score leading to higher than average total scores. So we have two hot, high scoring teams whose defenses have also been giving up more points of late; we know we need to add points to 143.9, but how many?

I have developed what has become a non-linear scale that gives a good answer. With the adjustment, my spreadsheet tells me to add a whopping twenty points for a total of over 163. Perhaps some books knew there would be pressure on the over side of things and tried to compensate with a 148.5 opener. Perhaps some fairly sophisticated money came in at the lower limits and settled at 144 easing the minds of the other houses.

These houses should beware. According to the numbers above, expect some degree of sharper game day money to come in on the over. Factor in what the public has seen recently from both UCLA and Gonzaga, and there is likely to be upward movement in the line. As such, get while you can OVER 144 for the sweet sixteen matchup between UCLA and Gonzaga. Even though I have an adjusted prediction of 163 points, and I do not expect the line to move 5 full points, I would not buy past 148.5 points. While I have a few good ideas, I am not confident in why the early line was chosen by certain books and that leads to some skepticism.

So there you have it. I not only fed you a fish, but hopefully some of you learned a little about how to catch your own.

Just want to acknowledge you and I agree with you and love your insight! This should be more prevalent here in this forum instead of the mindless posts by JJ's, Bears, etc (or sorry, one in the same) and all the shilling going on.
I agree with everything you said. All handicapping BEGINS with making your own line as a starting point and comparing it to the oddsmakers and then see were it settles and what positions the books take. I'm pretty good at football and making a profit BUT I learned in BB to much emphasis and control on the referees and how they call the game. Also, more unknown variables of what pace will be played and some teams have off night shooting,etc. BUT, so many bad beats in hoops due to how the refs call the game. I've made 5 wagers this whole tourney and am 4-1. Have no interest and learned to just spot play. I like Utah and Oaklahoma today. Did nothing yesterday. Thanks for sharing KVB, best of luck to you!