Originally posted on 02/26/2015:

Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
Somethings just not right in the economy

I VIX index is getting lower which is strange

I still think the markets going to crash
why will it crash?

when will it crash?

do you ever buy back?

how long do you sit on the sidelines before you buy back in?

Sitting on the sidelines lost investors $200 Billion in unrealized gains over the last 5 years.

Maybe they did save a few bucks selling when down 20 instead of 40... but the problem with this strategy is you also have to be right about when to get back in.

People take the first step (selling out of paranoia) and regardless of whether they are right or wrong, they sit on the sidelines for years(!) which has a fortune in expected value of gain.

You might be wrong of when to get back in, which is the big problem, and why retail investors average only 2.5% over the long term, relative to institutions (never sell - hold long term) which average 8%.

Trying to time the market causes you to get 2.5% long term, instead of 8%.

Investors react too heavily to short term fluctuations, which cripple them long term.

Don't do it. Even if you're right short term, you will never be able to guess right time about when to get back in, which will make you join the statistic ($200 Billion in unrealized gains from people who thought market was going to crash and sat on sidelines).

A survey of the CFO's of companies in the S&P500 showed that even Wall St's leading Chief Financial Officers are wrong about judging where markets going to go.

Market is volatile short term. Who cares? even if dips it always bounces back.

you have it backwards. Just because goes up doesnt mean will go down, when you should be saying, when goes down will correct back up.

market goes to infinity long term.

dont care about what happens short term.

always keep buying, and always keep holding.

That will make you get 8-10% average componding long term instead of 5%, or the average return of investors, which is only a pathetic 2.5% (yuck).

I'll take 8-10% long term. have fun with 2.5%.