Originally posted on 02/19/2015:
Couple of issues with both these bets were that Troicki was barely a favourite and Rola was the underdog. Also you need to consider if a player actually loses up a set often and if the other player wins down a set often. Tomic barely ever loses up a set except on clay but he sucks on it. That second factor is the main change I've made from my original breakeven model to the one I use now.
When a decent sized favourite ($1.5 or under) wins the 2nd set, they win the 3rd set almost 80% of the time at least. This is especially true in womens tennis but less so in mens tennis due to the fact one break is often enough to win a set. I rarely bet on favourites down a set in ATP level tennis unless the player I am betting against is not a big server but I do not mind betting on mens challenger and future level as not many huge server there and 1 break is often not enough.
Hope this post will help you out a bit.