Originally posted on 12/31/2014:

i'm getting that same feeling that was in the wind a few days before tito was about to be annhilated by the short chubby shlemenko...only that time the wannabe sharps wouldn't take the dog-price gift because acknowledging the "too obvious" size differential clashed with their self-image as non-conformists

this time the same "too obvious" (reach + uncanny MMA-IQ/creativity +...) advantages of the favorite are being overlooked...

do you guyz honestly think Cormier would rag-doll the likes of Gus...a completely different prospect than a well-past-due-date Henderson...and don't even think about how easily JJ could handle a Hendo at this point...not saying Cormier's at this level yet...just that his LHW (not his HW...his LHW...this is a different game when the speed and cardio and creativity grows in importance to the simpler "who catches who first" dynamic of the biggies) credentials clearly does not qualify him YET

Gus deserves and was originally scheduled for this tilt...UFC's "sports as entertainment" foisted this upon us...Cormier is amazing...but why not put him up against at least one top-ten LHW (like a Rumble Johnson, for example...no way in hell Cormier manhandles him like he did Hendo)

not having the common sense to see the value in a WAY over-dogged Tito (vs. Shlemenko) OR
not having the common sense to see the value of a way under-faved Jones (vs. Cormier)...
is a different form of the exact same myopia to not see what JUST SEEMS TO BE TOO OBVIOUS for your self-image as a sharp to handle

in MMA and tennis the value edge is most often on the under-appreciated dog...but when it appears as it only-occasionally does here and acts to overly-cheapen the price on the fave...you got that sweet "gift horse in the mouth" that all the over-thinkers just can't pull the trigger on...

the premature (not over-...just premature...let Dana feed Gus or Rumble to the Pilsbury-LHW first before you cream your shorts over his chances) value-bubble here has clearly formed on the ridiculously small-favorited Jones here...

setting aside my usual dog-loving/fave-suspicious inclinations...i find myself squarely on the same side of this matchup as Snapper, Jibster, Marzy, and Todster...it'll feel a little strange to be pulling for the "minus sign" here, but good luck boyz

win or lose Jones at just -150ish is clealy the play here...that or nothing...anything else is buying into overly-blown (relative to DC's LHW resume here...which sports to date exactly ZERO truly top-teir 205'ers...) Zuffa marketing

sometime the sharpest thing to do is just not turn down the obvious gift embedded in the price